Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Were the NE area particularly quick in getting the over 60s jabbed in jan/feb?

No, NE and Yorkshire were quick with over 80s and then got fewer supplies so that other regions had enough to give to their elderly: amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/21/covid-north-east-and-yorkshire-vaccine-supply-cut-to-catch-up-lagging-regions.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/test-trace-coronavirus-jobs-nhs-b1878826.html?fbclid=IwAR0cZq0a9pA0bR6kufreIEVV3cp8ua4HJVuRH8C-ssa3VXwDqGSPKeic3aI

Blood test identifies autoantibodies in people who have long covid: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57776010. Diagnostics is the start of developing treatments (and funding out who is more at risk, and why).

Can I ask a question about London? Not a statistician at all so may be misinterpreting. About 2/3 of boroughs have less than 50% double jabbed, but it doesn’t seem to be seeing the surge in cases than north east is. So in Tower Hamlets (worst vaccine uptake for two jabs) the case rate is a quarter of South Tyneside’s, and cases seem to predominantly be in 20-30 year olds whereas in south Tyneside it’s quite evenly spread amongst the under-55s. Why would London boroughs not be seeing a spike in the same way, given the relatively lower vaccine rates?

The number with antibodies rate in London is the same as other regions, and infection appears to be more efficacious at preventing infection than the vaccine at the moment, particularly with alpha infections from winter.

There's also a question if the London vaccine rates are remotely accurate with the number of people who actually no longer live there now.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/22june2021#percentage-of-adults-testing-positive-for-covid-19-antibodies-and-percentage-of-adults-vaccinated-against-covid-19-by-regions-in-england

Agree with sirfredfredgeorge.

Also immunity from prior infections is likely to have more meaningful impact on transmission since people with the highest number of social contacts tend to get infected first. If you vaccinate a 90 year old retiree living alone and shielding from the outside world, you reduce their personal risk but you do not change transmission dynamics. If a 30 year old factory worker catches Covid, recovers and gets taken out of the transmission chain, he/she can no longer infect their colleagues. The impact on the R ratio is much more meaningful.

Really helpful, thank you! So the question will be how long that natural immunity lasts?

Alternatively, it could be because there’s a new variant in the North East.

.

I assumed 'signal' meant 'not noise' , ie anything that isn't just explained by random variation within existing patterns, although it might look like that at first so not be obvious that it is a signal.

Not covid, but interesting data:
"Lightning strikes kill some 2,000 Indians on average every year, according to official data." (www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-57801398)
2000!!!

July 19th confirmed to go ahead

Although I feel I’d lost why it was announced but still to be announced again

I think there’s a press conference tonight

@MRex

Not covid, but interesting data: "Lightning strikes kill some 2,000 Indians on average every year, according to official data." (www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-57801398) 2000!!!

I really wish I hadn't read that just a thunderstorm released its full force here. 'Thunder and lightening (and pouring rain), very, very frightening.'

So week to 10th July. +793 in hospital in England. 1636 to 2429. +45%.

Fortunately it looks like cases are rising slower across the U.K., so hopefully only a few weeks of 30/40/50% hospital admissions.

@Itsprobablynotcominghome

So week to 10th July. +793 in hospital in England. 1636 to 2429. +45%.

Fortunately it looks like cases are rising slower across the U.K., so hopefully only a few weeks of 30/40/50% hospital admissions.

*30/40/50% increase in people in hospital.

Today is “confirmation” of Step Four going ahead. Sounds like the message now is “everything open but be very careful”.

RIght message I think actually

What does cautious looking like? I’m listening but may have missed it

Is it just we behave in a certain way rather than policy?

Look

So just to confirm re: hospitalisations, this is not yet differentiating between people who present as unwell as a result of Covid symptoms, and people who are hospitalised with something else but test positive on admission?

Not intended to minimise; there are massive logistical issues to treating Covid patients whether they're ill with it or otherwise.

Does anyone know what is happening about the advice not to travel out of area? A month or so back we were under this advice and I hadn't read that v it had changed but I can't find it now on the government site.

Chris Whitty mentioned, and BBC conforming now, that there’s some newly released modelling which suggests cases won’t rise dangerously high (paraphrasing). Not sure where to look for this - literally just released apparently.

*confirming

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001160/S1300_SAGE_93_minutes_Coronavirus__COVID-19__response__7_July_2021.pdf

Haven’t read it yet, but noticed lots of redacted names under the Observers and Govt Officials list at the end, is that normal, haven’t noticed it before?