Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@Sunshinegirl82

How long is the "lag"?

From yesterday's press conference slides, hospital admissions are lagging by about 10 days and deaths by about 20.

@NannyAndJohn

To me, *@Sunshinegirl82*, it appears that we are on a similar trajectory but just lagged a bit.

This is misinterpreting the data if we use the traditional meaning of "lag" as following on. People are going to hospital or dying on a similar timeframe, all reports from the NHS have been clear on that, so the lag between case and admissions is similar to previously. There is a higher rate of admission among unvaccinated with Delta than Alpha, but it's countered so strongly by the reductions for vaccinated that the admissions overall are lower for this case level, which is why the numbers are lower. As cases rise, so will admissions and deaths still, it's a curve but it's taking place at a lower level because of the vaccine impact. If cases get extraordinarily high, then the total number of admissions can still reach the level of previous admissions, but there are a huge number of people who will have had covid and not needed hospital support because vaccine induced antibodies have ensured their symptoms stay milder.

@NannyAndJohn

Hospitalisations now rising at the same rate as in the Second Wave.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

Once again, it is only you that seems to think no one else didn't think this would happen.

Can anyone who doesn't think hospital rates are going to rise after the rise in cases please let Nanny know so they know how to direct their "told you so" posts at please

@Sunshinegirl82

And another, still looking different to the previous wave.

Yes, it appears that the ratio of cases to hospitalidations is around 2.6% currently. Back in January it was around 9%

Hospitalisations are rising, as expected following the rise in cases, but at a lower rate.

Yes it is very much the ratio of hospitalisation/death to cases that has changed and I am not sure that the graph that @NannyAndJohn (being in the log scale) highlights that point.

So I agree I think the ratio has dropped immensely so that far less cases lead to hospitalisation and ultimately death has changed. And that is what Sunshinegirls charts have shown.

But was hasn't changed (and will never change) is that the rise is cases will directly link to a rise in hospitalisations and that is what NannyandJohn chart has shown. So ultimately both will rise at the same rate.

What the FT times chart doesnt show is that even though the increase is the same (as it would be) the numbers are less. At least I think that is right I find log scales far more confusing to read than linear given that it is relative rather than absolute! But it makes sense that if you have a 20% increase in cases you will get a 20% increase in people needing to go to hospitial. Which is what that shows.

The difference now is that before it was 10% of cases that needed to do to hospital rather than 2% so the numbers are smaller.

Quite prepared though to be wrong!

Get a grip Nanny!! ‘We told you so’.

Nothing you say here will impact the outcome. You’ve never answered me when I ask you what are you hoping to achieve by posting this stuff.

You spend your entire life (day and night) it seems on MN. Take a break, enjoy life and the freedoms you are so sure will soon be gone.

@NannyAndJohn the more I think about it (and I admit I only have a maths a level and diploma) that graph is very disingenuous

No one has said that the three arent linked because of course they are. And the more cases rises the more the others will, and will always (with a lag follow).

That graph shows that cases are rising at the same rate as previous waves. I don't think anyone has argued any differently.

But beyond that it doesn't say anything else because it is using percentage increase rather than raw data numbers. 1 to 2 is a 100% increase as much as 50 to 100 or 2million to 4 million - all are doubling and all would show as the same on a log scale.

@Cousinit

www.newsroom.co.nz/uks-awful-experiment-will-threaten-nz

Interesting article from NZ. I can kind of see the argument for opening now (least worse option?) but am quite worried about the potential consequences that are outlined in this article.

How is what we're doing any different to what's happening in the rest of the world. Brazil didn't lock down at all, India suffered a fair bit, parts of America are living normally. Why are they focusing on us? Variants happen anywhere. Whatever happens in the rest of the world they'll need a high level of vaccine take-up if they want to keep to zero covid when they open up

If you read the SAGE report posted earlier you will see that the concerns regarding vaccine resistant variants were raised there as well, almost word for word what was in that NZ article. I am personally concerned because I would like our country (NZ) to open up as soon as possible. In order to do this we are pinning our hopes on the vaccine. Obviously if we end up with a vaccine resistant strain that puts us all in the shit. Back to square one.

I'm not an expert but my understanding is there are worries about the UK in particular because the ideal circumstances are there atm to create a vaccine evading variant: high levels of vaccination plus high and increasing infection levels. Happy to be corrected though.

What worries me is the possibility (probability?) of vaccine-escape variants when so much of the world (not just in NZ) is still waiting for the benefits of the current vaccines. I know it'll happen sooner or later, but I'd much prefer later!

@sirfredfredgeorge

the current daily tally of more than 500 new oxygen-thirsty hospital admissions is some way above what modelling passed to ministers was predicting at the end of last month

There are not 500 new oxygen thirsty hospital admissions though, In England there are less than 200 new hospital patients in recent days, and less then 20 new ventilation patients. For there to be 500 new "oxygen thirsty" admissions there would need to be well over 400 deaths per day, or 400 discharges of course, but then from needing oxygen to discharge does not take a day.

That's just sensationalist misleading reporting.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/07/COVID-19-daily-admissions-and-beds-20210712.xlsx

Well according to this there were 442 admissions on 10th July, the most recent figure.

There were 433 people in mechanical ventilation beds on 12th July, in England.

The oxygen thirsty bit is somewhat unnecessary, I agree.

Otherwise, neither your figures nor the Telegraph's seem at first blush exactly to match the published data, if I'm reading it right.

I'm interested because they are linking this specifically to the change in emphasis over opening up. And as BJ's old paper as a journalist, they often seem in the know.

Well according to this there were 442 admissions on 10th July, the most recent figure

Yes, but the number of patients in hospital increased by half that, so the number of new people in hospital (the only people who could need oxygen, if you're sent home you don't need oxygen) could only be above that number if the number of people being discharged or dieing was in the hundreds too.

Now we do not have any stats at all on the number of discharges, but if it's genuinely high enough that it allows even the 400 patients to be oxygen hungry then we're missing some stunning good news about length of stay being so much lower than any previous wave.

About the link between vaccines and escape variants. I have read different interpretations of the way in which vaccines either exert or lessen the evolutionary pressure on the virus to mutate towards immune escape. It seems like we need to separate some of these factors out into independent events and risks. Not dismissing it, but the thinking on this issue seems extremely muddled. High prevalence of the virus increases the risk of any type of evolution. Vaccination on the one hand could select for such an escape variant because it would be the one to prevail BUT the likelihood of that arising is also reduced due to the vaccine impact on overall prevalence and on lessening the likelihood of it arriving in a patient who can’t then fight off the virus allowing it to mutate because viral evolution is likely to be greater (more diverse) in the unvaccinated. I’m actually going to take issue with the way SAGE has expressed the issue because there are risks in all directions. We could argue that the variant is much more likely to come from uncontrolled transmission across larger populations elsewhere and that from the UK perspective we are therefore safer to build our immunity stat to face the inevitability of further variants.
Of interest:
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.01.21259833v1

In other news maybe everyone has seen this thread by now but I feel it’s one of the best when it comes to walking us through a model:

mobile.twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1413834989209272321

Thanks for all the above @ATieLikeRichardGere

The medrxiv paper is actually showing that vaccination is selecting for particular mutations. A large reduction of genetic diversity in the absence of population bottlenecks, founder effects or inbreeding (not applicable in the case of covid) indicates a strong selection pressure.

I have said above that there is selection pressure. I have also pointed out the opposing dynamics of various pressures on the course of the epidemic. That’s all encapsulated in this paper I would say.

Hospital admissions are not representative of the population as a whole though.

Most admissions are still from the groups most at risk; the unvaccinated, the partially vaccinated, those with underlying conditions and those who are very frail.

@GCrebel
Where do you get this granular data from? Afaik data is on age bands - very broad and underlying conditions, but not paired. Last time I checked there was no cross matrix of 10 patients aged 10-18 with heart conditions.....
I might have missed something of course

@sirfredfredgeorge

Well according to this there were 442 admissions on 10th July, the most recent figure

Yes, but the number of patients in hospital increased by half that, so the number of new people in hospital (the only people who could need oxygen, if you're sent home you don't need oxygen) could only be above that number if the number of people being discharged or dieing was in the hundreds too.

Now we do not have any stats at all on the number of discharges, but if it's genuinely high enough that it allows even the 400 patients to be oxygen hungry then we're missing some stunning good news about length of stay being so much lower than any previous wave.

are "admissions" not by definition "new people in hospital"

also I think a greater % of the admissions have been of younger people as they have had fewer jabs - length of stay of this group would be interesting to compare with previous waves

@herecomesthsun I don't know if "admissions" also covers people who present at A&E and aren't kept in? I know my mum has been swabbed every time she's presented even if she's been discharged 6 hours later.

That's why I'd still be very interested in seeing a breakdown of who's admitted with and who's admitted suffering from Covid. A greater percentage of people admitted for other things (childbirth, injury, whatever) who also have Covid is a reasonable expectation.

are "admissions" not by definition "new people in hospital"

I think a lot of people assumed that, but no, it's any attendance at hospital, so you visit a walk in centre 'cos you're concerned but are sent away again saying "you're fine". That is still an admission in the stats.

In normal times such admissions are counted distinctly, but there's no public data on such covid admissions, however it was recently reported that 1/3rd were such in some group, but we don't know how that compares with anywhere else, or on any other days.

Well there is this, with diminishing Covid patients depending on their rather ambiguous definitions.... admissions drop from 442 to 391 depending on the "definition". Will try to check with DH as he did a spreadsheet the other day.....

Perhaps we now also need to ignore admissions, and concentrate on "in-patient bed numbers" only.