Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

@QueenStromba

The study paid for someone to go to the schools and supervise the tests.

Yes, twice weekly testing, not self administered. Then close contacts were tested everyday for 7 days. This will not be able to be replicated in schools as no funding.

Incidentally just after our trial session finished in late June we had an explosion of Delta and masses of kids testing positive. None of these cases were included in the study.

Just posted this on another thread - My DD’s (big secondary) school participated in the trial. We are in south west London and her school is in an area where delta took hold very early (a surge testing area very early on). The trial ended in June but definitely (in our case) included a big delta surge.

On the trial if someone tested positive, they went home to isolate as per usual. The close contacts (not whole class but contacts identified by the positive person, seating plans etc) had to do tests every day instead of being sent home (although they were only allowed to be at home or in school - they weren’t allowed out generally). This only applies to contacts who had no symptoms - as soon as anyone developed symptoms they had to go home until negative PCR test.

From memory (annoyingly I can’t find all the stuff I had to sign to consent to participation) they were supervised tests. Happily my DD wasn’t identified as a contact so didn’t have to test for the trial (although had to carry on doing the twice weekly lateral flow tests).

I think these graphs from the paper are very telling. The headline figures are masking the fact that the intervention arm was doing better mid June where it began to rapidly get worse.

@QueenStromba

And we know from studies of PCRs that HCP supervised swabs are as good as swabs done by HCPs.

Really?

Anyone I know who has had an HCP administered swab has commented on the difference!

When we had supervised' PCR tests at my school they supervisors basically looked away when you did it, liek you were putting in a PIN.

I am curious to know where they get the case rates from because, in the study, the kids did (supervised on site) LFTs every day but also did tow PCRs. So did the LFTs pick up the infections, or the PCRs? They have been a bit cagey about this!

Btw, the trials were not conducted in Delta areas, and paused where case rates were high...

Also not conducted where PHE advised sending year groups home.

And students who chose to SI were not included in the trial.

That’s ‘interesting’ piggy.

I expect to see this published in The Lancet - home of seriously dodgy trials.

@QueenStromba

I expect to see this published in The Lancet - home of seriously dodgy trials.

which medical journals DO you consider reputable, just out of curiosity?

I can't find where I read that now Piggy. I was reading a lot of papers the other day about PCR accuracy because I've been having lots of arguments on here about the unreliability of PCR testing.

Yes the test events were thought to be very unreliable
www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/25/uk-covid-pilot-events-record-no-substantial-outbreaks

PCR testing before and after an event was a voluntary request for attenders. Although PCR tests take at least a day to give results, they are far more reliable.

Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said it was difficult to draw any valid conclusions about the magnitude of the Covid transmission risk, because only a small proportion of people tested were tested after the event.

“I don’t think we can actually draw many strong conclusions out of this at all really – other than there does seem to be an increased risk associated with indoor events compared to outdoor events. But we knew that already,” he said.

The Lancet is the only one I have a major problem with. They've published a couple of absolute howlers with massive repercussions such as the study linking the MMR with autism and the PACE trial. They also publish an awful lot of poor quality population studies which get reported as gospel by the media. They publish some good stuff too but their peer review process is massively lacking.

Did these trials include Primary age children?

Coronavirus survey out today, England 1 in 75 people +ve

over 2% year 7 -11(more than 1in 50)

3.5% year 12 - age24 (more than 1 in 30)

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/23july2021

up to17 July

Just secondary schools in the study.

Wales look to be continuing with their downward trend 755 cases today compared to 1083 last week

@Piggywaspushed

Btw, the trials were not conducted in Delta areas, and paused where case rates were high...

Also not conducted where PHE advised sending year groups home.

And students who chose to SI were not included in the trial.

I had a flick through and saw a couple of schools that certainly ARE in areas that rose early e.g. Surbiton High (Chessington anyone!?!). I don't know about the percentage to compare with national averages. Where did you find the number of schools per local authority and percentage that were Delta / other during June?

"Testing on
286 4457(15.8%) person-school-days did not occur after the whole cohort of contacts or school
287 was sent home to isolate, following either school or public health agency intervention
288 (Figure 2A). These participation pauses occurred at 14 schools, 5 due to school capacity
289 issues, 6 due to school or public health agency concern about Delta variant, and 3 due to
290 public health concern about cases in the school as a result of transmission in the
291 community. No pause was instituted because of perceived excess transmission attributed to
292 the intervention."

Same again with better formatting.

"Testing on 4457(15.8%) person-school-days did not occur after the whole cohort of contacts or school was sent home to isolate, following either school or public health agency intervention
(Figure 2A). These participation pauses occurred at 14 schools, 5 due to school capacity issues, 6 due to school or public health agency concern about Delta variant, and 3 due to public health concern about cases in the school as a result of transmission in the community. No pause was instituted because of perceived excess transmission attributed to the intervention."

I had a flick through and saw a couple of schools that certainly ARE in areas that rose early e.g. Surbiton High (Chessington anyone!?!)

I'm not sure how many Chessington residents go to the expensive girls school....

The delta risk assessment has been updated.
" The changes in this update concern severity and reinfection risk".

www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variant-risk-assessments

@sirfredfredgeorge

I had a flick through and saw a couple of schools that certainly ARE in areas that rose early e.g. Surbiton High (Chessington anyone!?!)

I'm not sure how many Chessington residents go to the expensive girls school....

A few, there are bursary places. Some also go to Kingston Academy.

Key rises were early on were Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool, Newcastle, West London especially Kingston upon Thames. Maps here: www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-uk-delta-variant-map-b1880291.html?amp.
NW: Rochdale Islamic Academy, Eden boys Manchester & Preston, Eden girls Manchester.
Birmingham: Eden boys.
All these are areas that had early Delta rise.
Then there's Middlesbrough College and Thornhill Academy; fairly sure Teesside had Delta.
That's just a really quick scan, I don't know where most schools are!

I'm just not convinced the schools were chosen to not be in Delta areas before Delta even got here, or magically avoided Delta. It looks like a fairly even spread of schools across the country, and as such includes Delta. The comment about removing a couple of schools doesn't include all of them as the numbers are tiny compared with potentially affected schools.

Sorry, I didn't copy in a few somehow.
NW: Chorlton high school, Essa Academy, Sale Academy, Highfield Leadership academy, Oldham Academy North,
Birmingham: Queensbridge school

My DD’s school trial was not paused in spite of high cases and delta being prevalent.

[quote lonelyplanet]The delta risk assessment has been updated.
" The changes in this update concern severity and reinfection risk".

www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-sars-cov-2-variants-of-concern-variant-risk-assessments[/quote]
Hmm so it is now saying there is an increased risk of reinfection with delta. It makes the government's youth herd immunity strategy look all the more stupid if they are all going to catch it again in the winter anyway.

I'm not so sure, all it's saying is that reinfection and cross-protection from the vaccine is not that good. I'm not sure that's news, and it was certainly expected with all coronaviruses by many in infection terms, the important part is:

Current evidence suggests that VE [vaccine effectiveness] against hospitalisation is maintained

Which also means that immunity effectiveness against hospitalisation remains as the immune response in the two situations is the same.

So catching it again in the winter is "fine" if the protection against hospitalisation remains.