Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

“ Also re 100k cases a day, it's still quite possible for that (and more cases) to happen, though let's hope it doesn't”

Think @Bordois comment was sarcastic. We’ve seen quite a few 100k predictions by x date in this thread now which so far have not happened. Doesn’t mean they won’t but at least not in June and not likely in July.

This is the projection in the SAGE stage 4 document from 9th June and I think we are roughly where the black dot is

@Bordois

This is the projection in the SAGE stage 4 document from 9th June and I think we are roughly where the black dot is

Yes tho 1 week before ? As that’s 3/08. Still within the light blue area

Also looking at nannys graph it matches more or less the 1.8 line that I’ve said before. Def not above the worse scenario

@Bordois

This is the projection in the SAGE stage 4 document from 9th June and I think we are roughly where the black dot is

That one's outdated.

The one I posted is the latest one.

Yes tho 1 week before ? As that’s 3/08. Still within the light blue area

Yeah, just my fat fingers 😁

@EasterIssland The 1.8/2.1 etc refers to the value of R, not the number of admissions. That is on the left.

Its the same projection

[quote NannyAndJohn]@EasterIssland The 1.8/2.1 etc refers to the value of R, not the number of admissions. That is on the left.[/quote]
I know that @NannyAndJohn

I meant the current value of hospitalisations is currently between the lines the Rs in that prediction are making and not over the worse case scenario like you’ve claimed on your post

@Bordois

Its the same projection

@Bordois and @NannyAndJohn prediction is similar. As I’ve said in both the current hospitalisations lie in the same area , where the R1.8 line is. And following that the peak isn’t over 10k hospitals/day

Yes, the "older" version of the graph I'm using allows you to see the data as it currently is. Nanny's graph is showing a future projection and not current data.

100k of cases a day is indeed possible but it was never going to happen in June or by mid-July (as hypothesised by some of the posters). It is plausible we may see these numbers in August.

Yes I don’t think you can just say a high number whenever them claim being more right due to it

Most on here knew higher numbers would happen when restrictions lifted. Key of course is health capacity. Summer or winter and summer is a better decision

39k cases today!!!!

Ooh, is this a drop i see forming...

( yes, I know, lag, but allow a bit of optimism for the moment 😆)

That's nearly 10 k less than last Thursday too....

@Bordois

Ooh, is this a drop i see forming...

( yes, I know, lag, but allow a bit of optimism for the moment 😆)

There is lag, however this is 5 days in a row lower than what we had on the 17th of 54k... 2 of these days being under 40k too... look more positive.

@Notforme22

39k cases today!!!!

So 4th? Day in a row around 40k mark which is lower than what we had a week ago. And as someone has pointed out Thursdays and Fridays … this could be good news !

@Tuba437

That's nearly 10 k less than last Thursday too....

Was just looking that up 48.5k reported last Thursday (just over 60k actuals though for the sake of accuracy)

Let's hope so!! so would this mean we are past the peak?

I think the point is that in NannyandJohn's graph all the scenarios are broadly at the same level at todays date. This is becuase we don't not know the effect of the opening up yet. It will only really be possible to say what line we are following in a couple of weeks.

Is it the lack of school LFTs picking up cases?

Seems too low?

The dip could be as a result of less school mixing as schools have been breaking up over the last week?

15th was still the highest cases 60,676 and sloping down nicely. Braced for the extra opening up cases coming through tomorrow, that and end of next week will give an indication of how bumpy the route down will be. (I'd like a white knuckle ride obviously.)

For the moment, though it could go up again once any increases in transmission from 19th start converting into cases.

I saw somewhere (may have been here?) that the average time between infection and testingbpositive is now 4/5 days so we should start seeing that soon.

Next couple of weeks are going to be interesting stats wise.