Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Either way, we both seem to agree that we are above the upper bound of the worst case scenario.

Surely that is above the light brown bit whereas even though at the moment it is tracking above it looks like it is tracking to the 2.1 line surely?

Apologies @NannyAndJohn I see what you meant. Hopefully we won’t reach those numbers. Specially after this weeks numbers going down

Interesting look at today's decrease in cases and testing by @avds. I'm assuming a lot of it is down to school isolations and therefore fewer lfts - also folk not wishing to scupper their holiday plans!

Does anyone think we’ll reach a point where community PCR testing dwindles, and hospital testing for admissions is our only source of infection data? I just wonder when self-isolation rules change and so many people have binned the app, whether they will dismiss sore throats, headaches, d&v as being caused by something other than covid, and be less inclined to get tested as the year progresses?

What is happening in Redcar? Apparently higher than average vaccination but higher than average cases, just seen a report blaming the U30s for vaccine hesitancy but it doesn't seem to tally.

@Whichjab

What is happening in Redcar? Apparently higher than average vaccination but higher than average cases, just seen a report blaming the U30s for vaccine hesitancy but it doesn't seem to tally.

Like I said, I think vaccines will be found to be well below the currently stated efficacy in preventing positive cases where you get a high viral load (eg parent caring for a child). As I say anecdotally 7 positive kids generated 4 positive double vaccinated mothers.

Another hospitals comparison against predictions. Seems like it would peak around 1300 as james ward predicted

mobile.twitter.com/ThatRyanChap/status/1418224719950761984

Ava but that doesn't explain Redcar, that would be a nationwide issue

What is happening in Redcar?

Lower levels of historic acquired immunity in younger groups (similarly to South Tyneside). SAGE has always predicted that North East will be impacted more than other regions by the summer wave.

Redcar is already on the way down.

@GingerAndTheBiscuits

Does anyone think we’ll reach a point where community PCR testing dwindles, and hospital testing for admissions is our only source of infection data? I just wonder when self-isolation rules change and so many people have binned the app, whether they will dismiss sore throats, headaches, d&v as being caused by something other than covid, and be less inclined to get tested as the year progresses?

Interview with McNally the lead at MK Lighthouse Lab on R4’s PM today: he said just hospitals and border testing unless we somehow increase testing capacity, even with the new mega lab opening at Bristol. They said surely someone somewhere in government is planning for this in some way, and his answer was “I certainly hope so.”

So no one’s consulting him, certainly!

@EasterIssland is that hospitalisation prediction chart on the basis that the virus will peak and burn itself out do you know?

[quote Reastie]@EasterIssland is that hospitalisation prediction chart on the basis that the virus will peak and burn itself out do you know?[/quote]
Im not sure what james ward and Warwick predicted but looks like it’s with reaching a peak of cases and then going down

Neither the James Ward or rhe LSHTM curves seem to account for the opening up last week. Either that or they expect it to be fully counteracted by the school holidays which I find very unlikely.

This study suggests a definite end to school isolation:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57930214.

M Rex that study doesn't reflect my irl experiences with delta and I suspect it's already obsolete and needs rerunning with delta variant.

My experience is 7 children and a double vaccinated teacher in a bubble of 60, after 1 asymptomatic child attended for 1 day.

This study suggests a definite end to school isolation

But the models have it having a significant effect?

How did a health intervention with so little efficacy get approved?

Dates of the study are 19-April-2021 to 27-June-2021, from 11th June Delta was 90% of infections. If there was a sudden change in the study during early June then I would expect that to have been noted.

It's tricky with personal experience; your large number could be countered by cases of zero transmission.

Yes my personal experience was exactly that zero transmission. Whole class plus 5 close contacts in the year (DD was one hugged her and huddled on the morning symptoms appeared that evening). It was confirmed DELTA by PHE and they all isolated, lateral flow tests every day and PCR test on day 8 to come out on day 10 and not 1 other case.

There was barely any covid around in April, and by 11 June delta was 90 percent of infections but that was a high surge of delta in the North West and much more limited cases elsewhere.

They need to rerun the study.

I’m surprised by those results. Were the LFTs in these studies done by professionals or at home? Would it have made a difference to the findings?

The study paid for someone to go to the schools and supervise the tests.

And we know from studies of PCRs that HCP supervised swabs are as good as swabs done by HCPs.

Think I heard them say on the news just now that the tests were taken under supervision.

@AvaCallanach - by June Delta was almost 100% of cases in my London borough. Cases have been higher in NE, but the reasons for that are thought to be be lower cases in previous waves (so lower infection immunity) coupled with lower vaccine uptake.