Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 11th JULY

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
List of useful data links below. Suggestions for additions, and indeed deletions, always welcome.
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Ok so today's numbers are up, and Thursday has been a day with a big jump....
But this week we actually have a lower number than last, with not that many fewer tests (11.8% fewer tests and 17.8% drop in cases). Hopefully this trend will continue, it already seems to be translating into the growth in hospital numbers reducing and we should see the same trend in deaths in around a week (although I do think that deaths may not completely follow any trends as there will be a percentage of people that die within the 28days with rather than of covid and the lower the numbers of deaths the bigger the percentage of the that fall in to that category)
Compared with the 15th

I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bumpy

Opening on 19th then isolation stopping for vaccinated on 16th

But the strategy was get through cases just not all at once so we could do it

We are temporarily past the peak.

The cases for England reached 56,196 (by date of specimen) on July 15, 4 days after the Euro finals. As indicated in the PHE technical briefings, Delta has got a median incubation period of 4 days.

Similarly to Scotland, I believe we will be seeing the downward trend or a few days (again, for England only based on the date of specimen). However, there is a risk that July 19th re-opening might push cases back up. We will need to wait and see.

Yes, closed schools help but while transmission in schools gets a lot of focus (especially from the Zero Covid crowd) what really matters is the level of socialisation among adults.

@Indigopearl

I think the point is that in NannyandJohn's graph all the scenarios are broadly at the same level at todays date. This is becuase we don't not know the effect of the opening up yet. It will only really be possible to say what line we are following in a couple of weeks.

Yes, I said as much. Nannys version of the graph is what could happen.

But at this point in time we are not currently running above the worst case scenario as nanny claimed.

Ohhhh yes. That feels good.

If no new variant pops up, this feels like game over.

Exactly. In green is where we’re so between the two browns. And in red is where nanny was saying we were.

We are actually quite a bit further left (close to july 20th as there is 2 weeks between the vertical lines) but the green should also be a bit further down too.

I think the red has occurred because she has used the dips to plot the line from - i.e the final 4 ones rather than seeing those drops as outliers to the line rather than plotting the growth line using all of them to the more likely green kind of area.

@Indigopearl

We are actually quite a bit further left (close to july 20th as there is 2 weeks between the vertical lines) but the green should also be a bit further down too.

true big fat fingers as well, but at least it's a bit of difference between the green and the red which we were discussing before

if they're happy we should all be happy!

also changing topics a good video representing the antibodies going up per age since feb

twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1418224366291013652

@EasterIssland

if they're happy we should all be happy!

Ooh, is that Hugo 🤩

😂😂 @MRex - yes something like the oblivion at Alton towers??

I’m showing my age now.

@EasterIssland

Exactly. In green is where we’re so between the two browns. And in red is where nanny was saying we were.

You know today is the 22nd of July, not the 1st of August, right?

Good pick @Florelei, that'll do!

@QueenStromba as mentioned before fat fingers. Still far from the red dots which nanny was pointing we were and would bring 10k hospitals as per that prediction.

Is there anywhere where we can see the testing figures split out into LFTs and PCRs? Or is there some tally somewhere of the number of LFTs being distributed and how many results are recorded? Is there any data on what proportion of PCRs are done to confirm a positive LFT?

FWIW, SPI-M-O Medium-Term Projections updates to SAGE are just directional calculations based on extrapolating most recent trends. These documents always include multiple caveats why they should be treated with extreme caution.

What is more interesting is comparisons to actual models which are more nuanced and include variable assumptions. Right now we are still running close to LTSHM and James Ward's trajectories (as per attached - courtesy of @ThatRyanChap from twitter).

@QueenStromba

Is there anywhere where we can see the testing figures split out into LFTs and PCRs? Or is there some tally somewhere of the number of LFTs being distributed and how many results are recorded? Is there any data on what proportion of PCRs are done to confirm a positive LFT?

@QueenStromba is it this? It’s in the coronavirus website

QueenStromba

Yes, the government dashboard includes most of this information for England (but not the tally of tests distributed vs tests used).

Test numbers are included on the testing page.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Case numbers (including PCR, LFTs confirmed by PCR and positive LFTs not followed up by PCR) are on the "cases" page:

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=nation&areaName=England

Pmk

Thanks guys, I'd missed that on the dashboard. There's seems to have been a big drop on the number of LFTs reported on Tuesday and Wednesday this week versus last week. I wonder if we're finding fewer cases because we're doing fewer LFTs?

Drop in LFTs probably reflects school holidays.

PCR numbers (by date of specimen) are also down (even though testing is flat/slightly up) so it confirms the downward trend. However, the week on week variance in reported positive case numbers (39,906 for the UK reported today vs 48,553 reported on July 15) is most likely overstated. I am guessing we are down but not by a massive %.

But if a lot of PCRs are usually confirming a positive lateral flow then you'd expect a drop in positivity even if the actual rate in the population is steady or slightly up.

[quote EasterIssland]@QueenStromba as mentioned before fat fingers. Still far from the red dots which nanny was pointing we were and would bring 10k hospitals as per that prediction.[/quote]
Incorrect, @EasterIssland

We at the rightmost red dot on the graph I posted, which is the same point as the green dot when moved to the right location. I'm not sure what your red dot is.

Either way, we both seem to agree that we are above the upper bound of the worst case scenario.