Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

@Thewiseoneincognito

Anyone else have a feeling of dejavu?

Absolutely. The views expressed on here are so similar to those at the end of last summer / beginning of last Autumn, or even towards Christmas when the Kent variant took off.

The only addition is the 'but EVERYTHING will be fine, because the vaccine will solve EVERYTHING and we don't need to modify our behaviour or take any precautions AT ALL' posters.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Anyone else have a feeling of dejavu?

Yes. And yes to cantkeepawayforever's post.

It’s madness.

There are definitely a few posters with an agenda to drive people’s perceptions that this is nothing to worry about. It’s actually frightening when you see how subtly they steer the narrative knowing some vulnerable desperate people are reading.

@cantkeepawayforever spot on!

Definite deja vu. Absolute madness.

@Thewiseoneincognito

Anyone else have a feeling of dejavu?

Yes completely!

Feb/Mar 2020 - nothing to worry about, it will never take off in the UK
Autumn 2020 - nothing to worry about, deaths are really low (tbh this on was the hardest to understand as it looked really clear to me)
May 2021 - nothing to worry about, we are a third of the way through the vaccination programme

@AlecTrevelyan006

deaths reported today - single figure for the eighth day in a row

22-05-2021 - 6
21-05-2021 - 9
20-05-2021 - 7
19-05-2021 - 3
18-05-2021 - 7
17-05-2021 - 5
16-05-2021 - 4
15-05-2021 - 7

ninth day in a row

today's figure - 5

AlecTrevelyan

The interesting point will be in 4 weeks' time - do the deaths then reflect the 10+% uptick in cases this week?

The deaths reported today will tend to reflect infections between 2 and 4 weeks ago (and sometimes longer), and we know that case numbers were low and Indian variant numbers very much lower than they are now at that point.

The interesting point will be in 4 weeks' time - do the deaths then reflect the 10+% uptick in cases this week?

So 9 deaths instead of 8?

As we know from September / October / November, increases start slowly ....

It’s reported that the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant, so why are people worrying?

Feb/Mar 2020 - nothing to worry about, it will never take off in the UK
Autumn 2020 - nothing to worry about, deaths are really low (tbh this on was the hardest to understand as it looked really clear to me)
May 2021 - nothing to worry about, we are a third of the way through the vaccination programme

You forget to add “3rd January: schools are safe. 4th January: schools closed from tomorrow.”

I depends what you mean by 'effective'.

No vaccines are 100% effective, so if there are large numbers of infected people around (for example the 800 or so per 100,000 teenagers who are positive for Covid right now in Bolton), then even vaccinated people will catch Covid.

A small percentage of these will become very ill, especially remembering that the vaccinated at the moment include the very vulnerable and those, such as the elderly or immunocompromised, most likely to develop relatively low immune response to the vaccine.

A small percentage of those will die.

Those small percentages are not important when overall numbers of cases are extremely small - if cases were down in the numbers for e.g. measles, in the hundreds per year - because they translate into extremely small absolute numbers.

If cases go back up to the 80,000+ levels (5 doubling times from the current position), then those small percentages will still translate into large absolute numbers. Remember that a significant number of people are not yet vaccinated - or fully vaccinated, as that seems to be what is necessary to bring protection up to s decent level against the new variant - and so could easily get those case numbers right up again, thus enabling 'breakthrough' infections in those who are vaccinated but do not have a robust response.

I think we should be cautious, and I'm not sure what I think should happen on 21st June... however it's a difficult balance to strike. Of course the government has made huge mistakes but I'm sure a lot of the people rolling their eyes and saying deja vue are ones in stable, potentially wfh jobs. If you owned a pub/restaurant/cafe/soft play centre or worked in events and hospitality youd be literally pinning your hopes on everything opening on the dates that they first put forward.
I know these dates were "not before" dates and allegedly guided by data not dates but surely you can see why from an economic point of view you would be hesitant to pause/close venues "just in case" the vaccines dont work etc. Some places have been closed for more than a year, they are desperate to open.

@Lightswitchesoffatnight

It’s reported that the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant, so why are people worrying?

a) Vaccines are less effective than against either original covid or e.g. the Kent variant b) The vaccination progamme is just over one-third of the way to completion c) The Indian variant is more transimissible (% as yet unknown)

These factors in combination mean experts are concerned this could cause a large wave including increased hospitalisations.

@cantkeepawayforever

I depends what you mean by 'effective'.

No vaccines are 100% effective, so if there are large numbers of infected people around (for example the 800 or so per 100,000 teenagers who are positive for Covid right now in Bolton), then even vaccinated people will catch Covid.

A small percentage of these will become very ill, especially remembering that the vaccinated at the moment include the very vulnerable and those, such as the elderly or immunocompromised, most likely to develop relatively low immune response to the vaccine.

A small percentage of those will die.

Those small percentages are not important when overall numbers of cases are extremely small - if cases were down in the numbers for e.g. measles, in the hundreds per year - because they translate into extremely small absolute numbers.

If cases go back up to the 80,000+ levels (5 doubling times from the current position), then those small percentages will still translate into large absolute numbers. Remember that a significant number of people are not yet vaccinated - or fully vaccinated, as that seems to be what is necessary to bring protection up to s decent level against the new variant - and so could easily get those case numbers right up again, thus enabling 'breakthrough' infections in those who are vaccinated but do not have a robust response.

72% of over 18s have received their first vaccination

that means 38% haven't - and 99% of those are NOT VULNERABLE and if they are unlucky enough to get covid there is only a tiny, tiny chance of them becoming seriously ill or dying.

there is nothing to suggest that we are going to go back to thousands, or evens hundreds, of people dying everyday.

and remember - the number one policy priority for the govt isn't saving lives, but protecting the NHS. The ONLY thing that matters is that the NHS is not overwhelmed.

Between the 17th August and 14th September 2020 28 day deaths were 12 or under for about a month I think.

The seven day average got down to 7.

This time reminds me of then.

In a few weeks we'll know what difference this new variant makes, and hopefully what difference the vaccines make.

The Warwick sensitivity modelling has deaths starting to rise in the last few days of May.

@Lightswitchesoffatnight

It’s reported that the vaccines are effective against the Indian variant, so why are people worrying?

33% effective after one dose isn't very effective in my book.

Particularly when only 34% of the population has had two doses.

What was its effectiveness after one dose against the original covid variant?

@Doomsdayisstillcoming

What was its effectiveness after one dose against the original covid variant?

51%

So about 30% worse.

Thank fuck it’s May 23rd and not November 23rd. Summer will turn up at some point and buy us the time we need.

a) Vaccines are less effective than against either original covid or e.g. the Kent variant

Not by much, after two doses. Previously when we’ve had a wave, no one was vaccinated.

b) The vaccination progamme is just over one-third of the way to completion

The vast majority of the older and vulnerable people have been vaccinated.

c) The Indian variant is more transimissible (% as yet unknown)

Opinion has changed on this.

Every time a new variant emerged, we are told it’s more deadly, it’s more transmissible and the vaccines won’t be effective. I see a pattern emerging.

I’m definitely not worried this time. There’s no point worrying, it might be okay.

@PrincessNutNuts

Between the 17th August and 14th September 2020 28 day deaths were 12 or under for about a month I think.

The seven day average got down to 7.

This time reminds me of then.

In a few weeks we'll know what difference this new variant makes, and hopefully what difference the vaccines make.

The Warwick sensitivity modelling has deaths starting to rise in the last few days of May.

Differences between now and then, schools had literally just gone back they've now been open for months with cases remaining at similar level no significant increase and now the elderly and most medically vulnerable have now been offered vaccines, some fully vaccinated some partially vaccinated. Our border control Is also a lot tighter than it was back in Aug/September. Of course some things are exactly the same but some are very different.

More than 60 million coronavirus vaccine doses have been given in the UK, the health secretary has announced.
There were 762,361 first or second jabs on Saturday, the second highest daily total of the rollout, and more than 22 million people have now had both doses.
It comes as a study found the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are highly effective after two doses against the variant identified in India.

@Wellbythebloodyhell

Yes. Lots of factors.

Some on our side, some not.

The government hiding information from the public is definitely on the side of helping the virus.

How can people make common sense decisions if they don't have an accurate picture of their local area? Particularly how many schools the Indian variant is spreading through locally.

My uncle has "got on the blower" with all his family and friends and found out there are two secondary schools in his town and a primary school or two in each of the surrounding towns with Indian variant cases or rapidly rising cases which might mean the Indian variant.

The government should be giving us this info. Not withholding it.

And btw I wrote the Warwick model suggested deaths would tick up soon, but I meant hospitalisations.

(Some of which will of course lead to deaths - but not yet. )