Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

Well I think we’ll know pretty soon.
I was in a city centre today and every restaurant, cafe and pub was full.
People were queuing for some places.
And there was a huge Palestinian rally bang in the middle.
I’m not pointing the finger by the way. I was there and enjoying myself too.

If that city doesn’t see a huge spike in cases and deaths then I think we’re all good.

Hello were you in Liverpool as sounds like what I saw today too?!

Nottingham.
I think it’s been country wide today.
It will be interesting because if in 2 weeks we do not see a significant rise in cases that lead to admissions then I think there really is no case to answer.

@MegCleary

Be about two weeks time to see if they are going up. God I hope they don’t

I feel the same.

Not really even watching cases but rather death/admission percentage rise compared to case rise percentage.

I think we have about 2 weeks before the data will be representative of cases and admissions/deaths to compare because of the lag.

Hello, I agree that if in 2 weeks we have cases at current levels (2.5k or so), and in 3 weeks hospitalisations are continuing to fall, and in 5 weeks we still have singe digit death rates, then that will be fine,.

Cases are up 10% in the last 7 days in comparison to the previous 7, however, so I do not think this is a particularly likely scenario.

The absolutely best case is that cases rise, but that there is no increase in hospitalisations or deaths - either because the cases are hugely skewed towards the age groups that are not vaccinated and less likely to be seriously ill (like the 500+ per 100,000 case rate in under 9s in Bolton), or because the rates in the vaccinated go up but translate only into mild illness.

We won't know for 3+ weeks, because the rise in cases is only just starting. Bolton, Blackburn, Bedford are early canaries in the coal mines.

@HelloMissus

Well I think we’ll know pretty soon. I was in a city centre today and every restaurant, cafe and pub was full. People were queuing for some places. And there was a huge Palestinian rally bang in the middle. I’m not pointing the finger by the way. I was there and enjoying myself too.

If that city doesn’t see a huge spike in cases and deaths then I think we’re all good.

This was all outside though presumably?

Scientists are worried about transmission indoors, which has only been allowed for the last six days.

I meant the rally and the queueing, appreciate the cafes etc had people indoors - but controlled numbers.

Do the vaccines protect against the new variants?

[quote Bluntness100]Some mis information on here, deaths and hospitalisations continue to decrease on rolling average, cases are up. But the numbers are still low and it’s not resulting in serious illness.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/[/quote]
There's no misinformation.

Just correct information that there's a lag so we won't see the relationship between the slight rise in cases and if that affects admissions and deaths for a few weeks yet.

picture the rally was outside yeah. But it was crowded.
But every restaurant, pub and cafe was packed. Every shop too.
It felt like a perfectly normal Saturday.
Add to that the fact that everyone is visiting friends and relatives inside - I mean a LOT were anyway - but now they definitely are.

There’s no way if everything is okay in a couple of weeks that people can say - oh well it’s not vaccinations it’s restrictions.

We had exactly this last Autumn:

Cases are going up - it's OK, hospitalisations are low.

Hospitalisations are up - it's OK, deaths are low.

Deaths are going up - Oh no, why didn't we do something earlier?

This time, the vaccine has (with any luck - see Chile) affected the direct relationship between cases and hospitalisations / deaths - but without 100% vaccination, or 100% efficacy, and with new variants, we will have to wait to see what the 'new' real life rate:hospitalisation: death ratios are

@Dustyboots

Do the vaccines protect against the new variants?

It appears having had BOTH doses it is good but was just reading about some evidence first dose alone not so much, and less so against Indian variant than against Kent variant: twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1396154083166334983

I also see that No.10 leaned on PHE to stop reporting on outbreaks in schools which is just they would be so deceptive.

There’s no way if everything is okay in a couple of weeks that people can say - oh well it’s not vaccinations it’s restrictions.

It depends what you mean by 'everything'.

If case rates remain at 2.5K nationally, in 2-3 weeks' time, then that will show that vaccination has had a huge effect on transmission.

However, DUE TO THE TIME LAG, if case rates rise but hospitalisations and deaths remain low, we will ONLY know that vaccination has worked in 3 - 5 weeks' time (3 for hospitalisation indications; 5 weeks for deaths)

@AlecTrevelyan006

Deaths have been less than 10 a day for the last week

In January 1,000+ were dying every day

We’ve come a long way

Deaths were less than 10 a day last Summer too!

I also see that No.10 leaned on PHE to stop reporting on outbreaks in schools which is just sad they would be so deceptive.

That's normal. We have, just from personal knowledge, 2 primary and 1 secondary partially closed at the moment in my (EXTREMELY low case rate) area. No reporting at all except to parents of that specific school.

It’s funny how as soon as the situation improves the media stop reporting on it. They’re only interested in doom and gloom.

@cantkeepawayforever

I also see that No.10 leaned on PHE to stop reporting on outbreaks in schools which is just sad they would be so deceptive.

That's normal. We have, just from personal knowledge, 2 primary and 1 secondary partially closed at the moment in my (EXTREMELY low case rate) area. No reporting at all except to parents of that specific school.

No, they asked PHE to REMOVE the info from the national reports. It was not standard, and it was No.10 who specifically intervened apparently.

Cases in Bolton school children are higher than at any previous point.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/22/no-10-tried-to-block-data-on-spread-of-new-covid-variant-in-english-schools

Covering up school spread.
One massive lie.

@Dustyboots

Do the vaccines protect against the new variants?

I know correlation doesn't equal causation, but what else would explain the difference in case numbers between the mostly vaccinated over 60's and the mostly unvaccinated 0-39's

@Dustyboots

Do the vaccines protect against the new variants?

Yep.

But a bit less.

https://amp.ft.com/content/a70d423a-7d7c-4736-8828-0a485d7c3a8e?twitterrimpression=true

Efficacy of only 33% after 1 dose matters quite a lot when only 33% of the population has been fully vaxxed.

Sorry, pictures - I had missed that story when i wrote my post. There is a long historical pattern of not collecting or disseminating data about schools for the pandemic, but deliberate suppression of data PHE has collected and prepared for publication is a new low!

I repeat. A lot of political bullshit here.

@cripez

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

So

1. cases only started rising again a couple of weeks back and like last time, the rise began in the younger generations who generally avoid hospital.
2. Hospital levels are still falling NATIONALLY as more patients from the last wave are discharged, but rising in a few local hotspots like Bolton.
3. Yes vaccines work - VERY WELL at stopping serious disease, but if we just left everything to them and didn't worry about case numbers any more, then the tiny % for whom vaccines don't work, who also happen to be the % hardest hit by covid, would be shafted.

So right now, the news is pretty good, but we gotta hope those infection numbers don't keep rising.

@LadyCatStark

It’s funny how as soon as the situation improves the media stop reporting on it. They’re only interested in doom and gloom.

I assume you're referring to reporting about other countries. Definitely that's the case. It's why it's mostly been so quiet about the rest of the world. We've handled it worse than most other places. Presumably the UK government leaned on the UK media? Even when hundreds a day were dying, the UK media wrote of 'freedom' and disparagingly of 'doom and gloom' (as if 150,000 dead and many long term ill isn't doom and gloom!). Indescribably distasteful, deeply offensive.

Anyone else have a feeling of dejavu?