Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

@Lightswitchesoffatnight

More than 60 million coronavirus vaccine doses have been given in the UK, the health secretary has announced. There were 762,361 first or second jabs on Saturday, the second highest daily total of the rollout, and more than 22 million people have now had both doses. It comes as a study found the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are highly effective after two doses against the variant identified in India.

But not after one.

Only 33.9% of the population have had both.

And it hasn't kicked in yet for the last couple of %.

[quote PrincessNutNuts]@Wellbythebloodyhell

Yes. Lots of factors.

Some on our side, some not.

The government hiding information from the public is definitely on the side of helping the virus.

How can people make common sense decisions if they don't have an accurate picture of their local area? Particularly how many schools the Indian variant is spreading through locally.

My uncle has "got on the blower" with all his family and friends and found out there are two secondary schools in his town and a primary school or two in each of the surrounding towns with Indian variant cases or rapidly rising cases which might mean the Indian variant.

The government should be giving us this info. Not withholding it.

And btw I wrote the Warwick model suggested deaths would tick up soon, but I meant hospitalisations.

(Some of which will of course lead to deaths - but not yet. ) [/quote]
Who's your uncle and what makes him special to be privvy to such secret information?
If this info is so readily found out by a few calls "on the blower" its hardly top secret MI5 knowledge is it?
And how do we know the cases are all the "Indian varient" ? My Uncles ,neighbours, step sisters, twice removed pet dog is hardly a credible source of true fact is it

Well make your mind up @Wellbythebloodyhell. Is it a secret or not?

Is the government hiding information from the public?

Or are they keeping us up to date on the schools where the new variant is?

Should members of the public have to ring round half the people they know in order to find out?

(Because they've just found out that the one jab they've had isn't as effective as they thought.)

@Lightswitchesoffatnight

a) Vaccines are less effective than against either original covid or e.g. the Kent variant

Not by much, after two doses. Previously when we’ve had a wave, no one was vaccinated.

b) The vaccination progamme is just over one-third of the way to completion

The vast majority of the older and vulnerable people have been vaccinated.

c) The Indian variant is more transimissible (% as yet unknown)

Opinion has changed on this.

Every time a new variant emerged, we are told it’s more deadly, it’s more transmissible and the vaccines won’t be effective. I see a pattern emerging.

I’m definitely not worried this time. There’s no point worrying, it might be okay.

There’s no point worrying, it might be okay.

This is your right, but that is an empotional response and not one that you can expect the scientific leads to take.

The situation is what it is. We can either, as a country, respond practically or we can put our fingers in our ears and hope for the best. I think responding would see us in a better position, but I undersatnd that many people prefer to pretend things are not happening - including unfortunately our PM!

@cripez

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

It was on the news yesterday that scientists have determined the vaccines work against the Indian strain.

However the problem is not everyone is vaccinated (including children), if you take into account UK population (which includes under 18s) then only half of us have been vaccinated (either 1 or 2 doses).

What is likely to happen is new variants will run rife amongst the unvaccinated, pretty much every one aged 0-30 and all those that refused the vaccine. The good thing is this age group is said to suffer less with covid symptoms (however this doesn't mean reasonably healthy people won't still die)

The government needs to get the 18-30 vaccinated as swiftly as possible

The government then needs to start vaccinating children

Only then will we be reasonably safe from this virus

However, with the rate that has been vaccinated, and those not vaccinated being in the group said to be less likely to get severe symptoms, we are at a place to start living with covid.

@PrincessNutNuts

Well make your mind up *@Wellbythebloodyhell*. Is it a secret or not?

Is the government hiding information from the public?

Or are they keeping us up to date on the schools where the new variant is?

Should members of the public have to ring round half the people they know in order to find out?

(Because they've just found out that the one jab they've had isn't as effective as they thought.)

Think it's you that needs to decide if it's a secret or not, 1 minute it's a government cover up then next minute after a few phone calls the information is readily available. Unless your uncles phone calls were to government officials and not just random Joe Public then I think its safe to assume the information is out there.

Anyway don't know why I'm getting drawn into an argument when the basis of your point is no more than Chinese whispers. Come back with some proper info about a government cover up on this subject and we'll chat

@Watapalava

www.statista.com/statistics/1101947/coronavirus-cases-development-uk/

We have had schools back since March

Many workplaces went back in March

Most people having been following the rules for months except on Mumsnet so this latest opening is only making legal what many have been doing for ages

www.statista.com/statistics/1101947/coronavirus-cases-development-uk/

This link show so daily cases have been similar since star April

Many workplaces are still operating the WFH. Most people are not following the rules, not just those on mums net Daily cases in the past 14 months have had flat levels (restrictions lifted, spikes in levels) the only reason no spike at present is vaccines. The last spoke in December was before the vaccine rollout

Can anyone please remind me of the great website which a Mumsnetter runs which gives case numbers per local authority...she updates it every day?

Regarding the Indian variant being more transmissible - it is growing at twice the rate of other variants, and is more likely to be passed on to contacts although the percentage increase in transmissibility is not clear yet. We can't see this yet because cases of other variants are dropping.

PHE have labelled it as red for vaccine escape, due to the first dose issue. The fears this variant could cause a third wave - the modelling done by SAGE - was for a variant with no vaccine escape. This variant shows some vaccine escape.

This sentence from SPI_M minutes sums up my view: "In the face of uncertain evidence the risk of over-reacting seems small compared to the potential benefit of delaying a third wave until more people are vaccinated" Why must we always have delayed reactions from government?

@Attictroll

I hope the vaccines hold and deaths don't increase. Although a niggle in my head is we don't know how long vaccine immunity lasts - 7 months or something so surely we should be getting vaccine boosters sorted for those older and vulnerable people who were vaccinated in December

There will be a booster in August, it was mentioned in one of Boris's briefings

@HalzTangz

It was widely reported that in the draft PHE report there was data included on number of outbreaks in schools. When the report was published this page had been removed.

The government is lying (again).

Think what @PrincessNutNuts is saying is that the only way we can find out where there are outbreaks is by ringing around and asking locally. They are not suggesting their uncle had access to any special info.

The government's approach of lying and hiding is disgraceful. If you are pro-censorship that is your right to hold that opinion but I personally believe in open government, especially when it comes to the health of my children.

@Sunnyfreezesushi

I personally know two people now who have had vaccinations but recently tested positive due to travel tests. I would like to know how many positives coming out of routine tests eg positive lft leading to positive pcr with zero symptoms.

It has always been said that you can still get covid when vaccinated. The vaccine reduces symptoms, it doesn't stop you getting it

The scaremongering on here is more scary than the virus.

It is not scaremongering to discuss the real-life situation in your country or the scientific data being published by your government.

If people are scared, they should really avoid the Coronovirus board IMO. It is a virus, there will be ups and downs and there will therefore be discussion of those ups and downs.

I’m not scared, just aware of the negative posts on here.

I don't think discussing science is something that really is positive/negative. When people engage with the science but have a different slant on it to me, I like to read it to learn more/think in a different way.

But saying only 'there's nothing to worry about' or 'stop scaremongering' is as how can one possibly discuss something the government is worried about without discussing what it is about it that is worrying them? Or are we all supposed to pretend it isn't happening?

There is always a glass half full glass half empty vibe on these threads I think @Lightswitchesoffatnight(and possibly in real life as well) coupled with unrealistic expectations as well on both sides as to what living with COVID.

Which is the problem of course because there is no "the science" there is only a data set which can tell you different things depending on what viewpoint you are following or what end goal you want to achieve

@picturesandpickles I agree this actually sums it up completely

This sentence from SPI_M minutes sums up my view: "In the face of uncertain evidence the risk of over-reacting seems small compared to the potential benefit of delaying a third wave until more people are vaccinated" Why must we always have delayed reactions from government?

because whereas that is completely true from a COVID perspective I am not sure the risk of over-reacting is that small at all. Or indeed that effective. May 17th I suspect simply made legal what many were doing before. We need to balance that out with a sense of realism about what the public are going to deal with.

The glass currently is 50% full and 50% empty we need to manage that line of both full and empty at the same time.

Every time a new variant has emerged, we are told it’s more deadly, it’s more transmissible and the vaccines won’t be effective. I see a pattern emerging.

I think the fact that we are always needing to look forward is very different for us @Quartz2208

I feel an issue like Covid has challenged our whole way of tackling probelms, individually and nationally. The line of cases is never flat, it is always going up or down. Looking ahead on that line instead of focusing on where we are today is not easy it appears.

Our polictics seems ill-equipped to deal with future problems (as with cliamte change) and much more able to deal with problems where we can say 'x number of people have been affected right now'.

Living in the moment is very important - but very foolish with an issue like Covid, so that brings a tension.

Quartz indeed.
And I think the powers that be a pretty pleased that they have some advance test groups who have been pushing boundaries.
The last thing you want is to spring from full compliance to easing restrictions.

@picturesandpickles I don’t disagree but I think there is also the need to balance out the future effects on everything not just COVID. Those effects I think are more concrete than the modelling.

School closures are I think going to be around for awhile on a local basis we need proper rules and procedures set for when they should kick in. Starting perhaps with masks etc

We also need to consider the mental health of the population. So many people have suffered during lockdowns, it’s not just Covid making us sick.

Personally I would prefer better mitigation in schools to avoid closures, but agree we need some policies/processes.

We will not get that though - government is actively suppressing schools data and ignoring the situation in Bolton currently.

There have been more news stories today about the government being more confident about opening up on 21st June, and also that if the vaccines keep the majority out of hospital then the pandemic is over.

When will people realise that it doesn't matter if cases rise as long as hospilisations and deaths are kept down. Covid will always be around now and there will always be some people in hospital and dying from it, but as long as the majority are protected then this has to be acceptable and there is no need for any restrictions. This is the point we are approaching and this is what the government plan is.

@Overthebow people do understand that, I do anyway.

We don't yet know about the hospitalisations, as we have not got to that point yet, although we all hope for good signs.

But forgive me for not blindly trusting the government's confidence. They were confident before both previous waves.