Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

deaths reported today - single figure for the eighth day in a row

22-05-2021 - 6
21-05-2021 - 9
20-05-2021 - 7
19-05-2021 - 3
18-05-2021 - 7
17-05-2021 - 5
16-05-2021 - 4
15-05-2021 - 7

But weekly cases up 10%.

The key question is whether hospital admissions are 1% up in 2 weeks' time, and deaths 10% up 2 weeks after that. We really won't know until then.

Sorry, 10% throughout, not a random 1%

I'm in Bolton so our cases are something like 50 times the national average, we are having more hospital admissions,not many but more , they are working very hard to combat this ,we have a vaccine bus ,mobile test centres ,and door to door visit,s handing out PCR tests so hopefully a blip ,several schools have burst bubbles.

Did you know only 89- yes only 89 people in England under 40 have died during ENTIRE pandemic (who were not in group 1-9).

Why are such shockingly ableist posts allowed to stay up?

Just in case it's an example of exceedingly thick rather than ableism, the bit in brackets is the relevant part. There's quite a lot of people under 40 in group 1-9. Some are children.

Anyway, it's not only about deaths. Whether people want to hear about it or not, Long Covid is a real problem. People are unable to work because of it.

So far most sufferers haven't had access to scans. Those who have been scanned have been found to have heart, lung, kidney, or other damage. It's also been linked to triggering diabetes (in previously healthy young people).

Absolutely op. The vaccine appears to be doing its job.

@Tealightsandd

Did you know only 89- yes only 89 people in England under 40 have died during ENTIRE pandemic (who were not in group 1-9).

Why are such shockingly ableist posts allowed to stay up?

Just in case it's an example of exceedingly thick rather than ableism, the bit in brackets is the relevant part. There's quite a lot of people under 40 in group 1-9. Some are children.

Anyway, it's not only about deaths. Whether people want to hear about it or not, Long Covid is a real problem. People are unable to work because of it.

So far most sufferers haven't had access to scans. Those who have been scanned have been found to have heart, lung, kidney, or other damage. It's also been linked to triggering diabetes (in previously healthy young people).

I'm in group 1-9 myself so replies like that give me no comfort at all

I so desperately want to get to a place where it's in circulation but we aren't having to be armchair statisticians every day to work out how safe we are - really we should be aiming for really low levels then we would be in great shape with low cases + vaccines.

Obviously everyone hopes it'll be ok. Bit worrying in Bolton though, they've just opened an extra covid ward this week. I know we are hearing the good noises from Johnson but he isn't the most cautious person as we all know. In two weeks' time we will know more. I am finding it draining not being able to trust the PM.

@cripez

Long Covid doesn't only affect group 1-9
It's an issue for loads of people - plenty who were previously young and healthy.

Separately wrt risk of death, obviously there are many people (under and over 40) with undiagnosed underlying conditions.

@x2boys

I'm in Bolton so our cases are something like 50 times the national average, we are having more hospital admissions,not many but more , they are working very hard to combat this ,we have a vaccine bus ,mobile test centres ,and door to door visit,s handing out PCR tests so hopefully a blip ,several schools have burst bubbles.

The local health teams are doing amazing work.

My friends in Rochdale say anyone over 18 can walk in and get a vaccination in their area.

They don't even have to do the nudge nudge nudge wink wink " I mow my Nan's lawn so I'm an unpaid carer" thing.

They're getting great take up since they began advertising in advance which vaccine they're giving out, too.

My quote about 89 deaths outside group 9 was not to dismiss them!

It was because all 1-9 have been offered vaccine so anyone in that group are unlikely to now die! This the chances of rising deaths massively diminished

Everyone over 40 and in group 1/9 offered vaccine

So potential numbers at severe risk is ridiculously low given only 89 out of the current vaccinated groups died during pandemic

Outside of

But many won't have yet had their second dose (and it takes several weeks after a jab for it to be fully effective).

Also, you spoke of groups 1-9, and then under 40s. Ignoring the 40-49s? Yes they should've been included in group 9 (particularly 45+), like they were included for vaccine priority in other countries, but they weren't.

Lots of 40s have undiagnosed underlying conditions.

And like I've said, it's not just about deaths. There's the issue of Long Covid and the associated organ damage that can be a result of it.

Everyone over 40 and in group 1/9 offered vaccine

Lots in group 1-9 only now having their second dose.

And most 40-49s (who aren't health/social care workers or group 1-9) only very recently had their first dose.

So, huge numbers remain only partially vaccinated - and therefore inadequately protected.

Separately there's Long Covid (and the potential organ damage it's been found to cause in some people). Long Covid can and does affect young and healthy.

Right now we have offered vaccine to people in their 30s

People in their 40+ have been vaccinated - offered

So have groups 1-9

So only ones left are those healthy under 40 - hence why I inc the stats

Only one dose is needed to prevent deaths in most people

Long covid in most cases doesn’t last more than 3-6 months
Average is actually 4 weeks like most viral infections
And long covid isn’t a concern regarding restriction lifting

Gov have stated that

Only one dose is needed to prevent deaths in most people
Ah that must be why government rushing out second doses and bringing dates forward...

Remember the people in hospital in Bolton who Hancock said hadn't had their vaccine? It turns out the majority had had their vaccine. Just not the second dose (because it wasn't due yet).

And, offering and actually giving are two different things. Lots wait several weeks for an appointment after being offered.

Some areas are going faster than others
They only just did 38 year old Prince William.

Vaccines don't work immediately either.

I assume you have the gift? Crystal ball and all? The experts - scientists and doctors - don't know how long Long Covid lasts.

It can cause heart, lung, kidney, and other damage - which suggests it's not short term.

And actually government ministers have been talking about their concerns about Long Covid.

@Watapalava

Long covid in most cases doesn’t last more than 3-6 months Average is actually 4 weeks like most viral infections And long covid isn’t a concern regarding restriction lifting

Gov have stated that

Long covid is not a consideration for lockdown lifting but it absolutely is a huge concern. The government is not discussing this widely as they do not want to open the can of worms, but Hancock has made statements in the HoC about the impact of long covid, they are investing large amounts in research and treatment, and they expect to have significant numbers of people of work for long periods. Especially impacts are the NHS - over 100,000 staff off sick with long covid - the costs of both paying their wages, covering their work and paying for treatment is really significant.

We are talking here about previously healthy people developing serious organ issues, and conditions like diabetes. This is not fatigue etc., but in many cases very serious and complex.

19 people in hospital in Bolton

( had vaccine and the other 14 should have had it but didn’t)

Out of that 5:
3 had very recently had 1 dose
1 had one dose with over 3 week delay
1 had 2 but was old and very frail

So no majority were not vaccinated

www.itv.com/news/2021-05-20/long-covid-one-in-seven-younger-people-suffer-symptoms-up-to-six-months-after-catching-coronavirus

We haven't got to long term yet so can't know how long it will last - but some of the issues below (from the linked article above) don't exactly suggest short term.

These included chronic respiratory failure, abnormal heart rhythm, peripheral neuropathy, memory problems, diabetes, liver test abnormalities, anxiety and fatigue.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/19/stop-blaming-vaccine-hesitancy-for-spread-of-india-covid-variant-says-council-leader

Sorry got the Bs mixed up. Blackburn.

Mohammed Khan, the leader of Blackburn with Darwen council, said six of the nine coronavirus patients in the region’s hospital had received at least one jab. Only three of the Covid patients at East Lancashire Hospitals NHS trust had not received a jab when they were eligible, Khan told the Guardian.

@Watapalava

Long covid in most cases doesn’t last more than 3-6 months Average is actually 4 weeks like most viral infections And long covid isn’t a concern regarding restriction lifting

Gov have stated that

I wouldn’t class four weeks as long covid; that’s just the expected time for many to recover from a variety of virus. Most people who have flu expect to feel a bit weaker and tired in the immediate aftermath. True long covid is those who were previously fit and healthy and months and months later are presenting as if they have severe asthma, COPD, having heart problems or strokes etc. The loss of appetite, weight loss, fatigue, loss or smell/taste continues for many others and whilst it’s also a form of long covid, it’s not such severe repercussions.

I do agree that it’s not a reason to prevent lockdown lifting though.