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Original poster

Does anyone else think we may end up with yet another lockdown

291 replies

Lemonwoe · 16/05/2021 22:29

I really hope not; the last few were quite hideous. But I can’t help feeling that we are going to end up with another lockdown before the end of term (Scotland: so before 1st July) just hoping that the vaccination program is completed really soon

OP posts:
Wingingthis · 16/05/2021 22:31

Maybe in the autumn but not soon. But what do I know really!

Nikki305 · 16/05/2021 22:37

It depends what you mean by "lockdown". Probably some measures needed but can't see them closing schools again

MrsIsobelCrawley · 16/05/2021 22:42

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has said that relaxations tomorrow "lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks)" as the Indian variant is 50% more transmissible than the current Kent variant.

KFleming · 16/05/2021 22:44

@MrsIsobelCrawley

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has said that relaxations tomorrow "lead to a substantial resurgence of hospitalisations (similar to, or larger than, previous peaks)" as the Indian variant is 50% more transmissible than the current Kent variant.
Is that missing a word? Did they say “could lead to”? Or “will lead to”
MrsFin · 16/05/2021 22:45

Most of the people currently hospitalised in the hotspots of the Indian variant haven't been vaccinated - so therein lies the issue, and the answer

Judystilldreamsofhorses · 16/05/2021 22:46

I really hope not, but I’m also in Scotland and wonder if we will end up with a so-called “circuit breaker” again given the cases in Glasgow/Moray. I think closing schools would be the absolute last resort though.

Iremembertheelderlykoreanlady · 16/05/2021 22:48

Is that missing a word? Did they say “could lead to”? Or “will lead to”

Yep! It's missing a couple of "could be" and "is reasonable likely to" phrases.

But that's mumsnet for you! Selective editing of official material to make a point

siestalady · 16/05/2021 22:48

If we have another lockdown though - what is the end goal of that? People tolerated the last one because the vaccines were in touching distance. A lockdown now/soon is essentially saying that the vaccines are not sufficient to keep covid enough at bay. So then what is the end goal? are we just supposed to stay locked down?! If the variants can evade it that quickly then whatever adjusted vaccines are developed will all eventually get evaded.

People are sick and tired of lockdowns, I will personally really struggle to comply with any future lockdowns. I'd far rather take my chances.

Irishterrier · 16/05/2021 22:48

No.

Original poster
Lemonwoe · 16/05/2021 22:51

@Judystilldreamsofhorses love the username. I’m supposed to go Glasgow for to see family this weekend; it’s been planned for as long as we thought we were coming out of lockdown. So disappointing that it’s been delayed. But I suspect that it’s the right choice for this week

OP posts:
CavernousScream · 16/05/2021 22:51

I think we could end up with increased restrictions again, but it would have to be tied to intensified vaccination delivery.

bellamountain · 16/05/2021 22:51

@siestalady

If we have another lockdown though - what is the end goal of that? People tolerated the last one because the vaccines were in touching distance. A lockdown now/soon is essentially saying that the vaccines are not sufficient to keep covid enough at bay. So then what is the end goal? are we just supposed to stay locked down?! If the variants can evade it that quickly then whatever adjusted vaccines are developed will all eventually get evaded.

People are sick and tired of lockdowns, I will personally really struggle to comply with any future lockdowns. I'd far rather take my chances.

Agreed.
Ephe17 · 16/05/2021 22:59

Governments Modelling...

As with previous SPI-M-O modelling of easing restrictions, all scenarios from the three groups lead to a distinct third wave; there is significant uncertainty in both the timing and scale of its peak with results differing between the groups and across the sensitivity analyses.
The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated individuals.

Griefmonster · 16/05/2021 23:02

Nationally - no . Winter maybe. Not soon. Local hotspots. Yes likely.

BelleBlueBell · 16/05/2021 23:03

Every bloomin poster on here who asks this question about 3 times a day it seems can't wait for another lockdown. It's getting very groundhog day on this topic.

jesusmaryjosephandtheweedonkey · 16/05/2021 23:05

Honestly I don't think we will.
Although the Indian variant is spreading. There is no evidence that the vaccinations don't work against it.
The majority of people in Bolton who are in hospital with the Indian variant of covid,were able to have the vaccine but didn't .

I think we are at the point now that life must go on .

Florelei · 16/05/2021 23:08

We haven’t even come out of the last one yet!

MarshaBradyo · 16/05/2021 23:11

@Ephe17

Governments Modelling...

As with previous SPI-M-O modelling of easing restrictions, all scenarios from the three groups lead to a distinct third wave; there is significant uncertainty in both the timing and scale of its peak with results differing between the groups and across the sensitivity analyses.
The resurgence in both hospitalisations and deaths is dominated by those that have received two doses of the vaccine, comprising around 60% and 70% of the wave respectively. This can be attributed to the high levels of uptake in the most at-risk age groups, such that immunisation failures account for more serious illness than unvaccinated individuals.

How many out of say 100 end up in hospital after two doses? I feel like I have missed this part
MarshaBradyo · 16/05/2021 23:11

Op no I don’t think so

babeinthewoods · 16/05/2021 23:17

There was an article a couple of days ago in FT stating that 9 out of 193 infected doctors in India died and they were fully vaccinated with both doses. It seems that the Indian Medical Association and the British press are portraying conflicting information about whether the vaccines are indeed standing up to the new Indian strains....

GonnaBeYoniThisChristmas · 16/05/2021 23:17

Nope. The economy and society and education have all been so badly impacted by lockdown. With the vaccine programme continuing well, lockdown just won’t be swallowed by the public so no point.

They may do some form of restrictions, like in the winter re-impose two household / six person type rules but I suspect compliance with that will be minimal.

Mathshelpme · 16/05/2021 23:20

Have you seen the cases and deaths?

Ignore the news is my advice.

Ofallthebarsinalltheworld · 16/05/2021 23:23

I am in Scotland and think Nicola will try levels again and push it as far as she can and then another lockdown anytime from August onwards.

I am hoping that I am completely wrong and by next weekend this has all fizzled out.

What I have found surprising over the past few days is the amount of people who genuinely think that because they have had the vaccine either one or two jabs that they are completely immune.

I really feel for peoples mental health just now as a lot of people are really worried about the future after what's been in the news/media the past few days. I personally try to just focus on one day at a time as things change so rapidly and unless its Boris or Nicola saying something then I don't entertain the media as it's all speculation.

HalzTangz · 16/05/2021 23:34

@Lemonwoe

I really hope not; the last few were quite hideous. But I can’t help feeling that we are going to end up with another lockdown before the end of term (Scotland: so before 1st July) just hoping that the vaccination program is completed really soon
Yep, I predict the announcement to next lockdown be june 15th, week before expected lifting of restrictions.

This new strain will run rampant through all the non vaccinated people causing NHS numbers to rise

Ofallthebarsinalltheworld · 16/05/2021 23:37

Every bloomin poster on here who asks this question about 3 times a day it seems can't wait for another lockdown. It's getting very groundhog day on this topic.

I've never seen anyone saying that they want/like lockdowns so can't comment on that. However I do think people have the right to post there questions or feelings as we are not living through times to bottle things up or sit worrying about things outside our control. To me personally I believe it's good to talk and get everything out of your head. I might not agree with others opinions but I am glad they are opening up and reaching out.

We are all in this together but we are all on our own. If ever there was a time to be kind to others it's now.

I appreciate you are fed up of these types of threads but I am baffled as to why you would read and comment on something you are fed up with. Other people's opinions and feelings are just as valid as yours.