Does anyone else think we may end up with yet another lockdown

[Lemonwoe]

I really hope not; the last few were quite hideous. But I can’t help feeling that we are going to end up with another lockdown before the end of term (Scotland: so before 1st July) just hoping that the vaccination program is completed really soon

30% of those cases are the Indian variant at the moment. So far our hospitalisations and deaths are still 0

Those hospitalisations and deaths are from infections likely to have been caught at least 3 weeks ago.

The kent varient was first detected in September, cases only really started rising in October and hit crisis point Jan/Feb.

Covid isn't quick.

If there's anything indoors you want to do, haircuts, primark shopping etc, I'd be doing now rather than leaving it.

Nope. I think the vaccines will hold up and the current news about the Indian variant will spur on those on the fence to get vaccinated.

We only needed to get the vulnerable categories vaccinated to prevent 90% of hospital admissions and we are well on the way to that.

I think this new variant is being over egged to get vaccine uptake ramped up, probably compulsory vaccines for care staff coming next

They can't vaccinate children, so the theory falls down somewhat.

And compulsory vaccination for care staff should have happened months ago. Its testament to the paucity and fragility of our care system that it wasnt.

Please God no!!

I must admit I'll be mildly sceptical about everything Covid until about this time next year... However I don't believe another lockdown will be necessary.

The take up of vaccinations is good.

Our methods of treating Covid are more skilled as we learn about the virus so the NHS will be more adept at dealing with things.

Hopefully we will have booster jabs in the autumn which will ease the numbers being hospitalised.

I am concerned that our immunity to flu has been lowered after a winter of lockdowns so the flu jab should be given to all over 18 as an extra precaution in autumn 2021.
In theory it'll be a one-off as the 2021-2022 winter NOT spent in lockdown will boost our immunity.

By next year we might know whether the vaccinations slow down transmission.
We will certainly know how the vaccinations help the numbers of cases.

And that's how I hope we avoid future lockdowns.

@RedcurrantPuff

Are we genuinely expected to believe that despite alleged “variants”

With large numbers vaccinated
The summer coming where respiratory infections decrease

That we are going to end up with more cases than when no one was vaccinated?

Nah SAGE you’ve cried wolf once too often now.

Erm, the predictions of SAGE have generally been correct.

The government usually plods along claiming everything is fine and safe whilst SAGE warns of dangers because of XYZ. Hundreds of people start dying, the NHS comes under massive pressure, the government is forced to accept that we cannot continue, finally introduces strict lockdown measures once we are already in the throes of a crisis. Rinse and repeat, twice already.

If we took more precautions based on the advice of SAGE from an earlier point, complete lockdown might be avoided. Once the hospitals are full, all you can do is force people back into quarentine until the numbers go right down. I'd much prefer a more caution approach that might prevent another hard lockdown. But hey-ho maybe we'll all get to eat out to help out for another couple of months before being locked up again.

@Hazelnutlatteplease

30% of those cases are the Indian variant at the moment. So far our hospitalisations and deaths are still 0

Those hospitalisations and deaths are from infections likely to have been caught at least 3 weeks ago.

The kent varient was first detected in September, cases only really started rising in October and hit crisis point Jan/Feb.

Covid isn't quick.

If there's anything indoors you want to do, haircuts, primark shopping etc, I'd be doing now rather than leaving it.

I know that, and I am making the most of it now. I was relying to PP who was saying it will be interesting to see what happens with the Indian variant in areas with high uptake. Mine is one of those areas and we do have the Indian variant, so will be interesting to track it over the next few weeks to see what happens, if cases, hospitalisations and deaths start going up or not.

Hopefully not over the summer. I am half expecting something over the winter.

I am just going to keep fingers crossed and hope for the best.

@babeinthewoods
India has different vaccines to us? So it's possible theirs is less effective than AZ/Pfizer?

I think it might have been prudent to roll back today's easing by a week or two while the variant is studied and more vaccinations are carried out.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have another lockdown or more restrictions again ar some point. I really hope that schools never close again.

I think it might have been prudent to roll back today's easing by a week or two while the variant is studied and more vaccinations are carried out.

Unless you're a business who has spent a fortune on preparing to open up today. I think that would have been the end for many businesses - I know at least two people who have told me that would have been the case.
There are places in the UK that have been under additional restrictions since last July and this has had a huge impact on hospitality businesses. I'm so pleased that they can open again today.

If some restrictions continuing over summer when the weather is good enough to meet up outside (ie keeping things as they are from today, but not opening fully in June) can save us from harsher restrictions in Autumn - when the weather is turning and school could be affected - then that would be my preference.

Yeah I know it’s best to be prudent now when cases are low, rather than risking them getting out of hand, I just find it all incredibly frustrating.

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin

Nope. I think the vaccines will hold up and the current news about the Indian variant will spur on those on the fence to get vaccinated.

We only needed to get the vulnerable categories vaccinated to prevent 90% of hospital admissions and we are well on the way to that.

Agreed.

Yeah because folk think they’re above getting the vaccine and want to exercise their autonomy 🥱

That’s their right, but sadly it will impact on everyone else as things won’t go back to normal until the vast majority of people have been vaccinated.

If the uptake isn’t high enough, even if the death rate is still low, I think we’ll continue to have lockdowns....... sigh

I definitely feel like some of these things being dropped or soon to be dropped (masks no longer a requirement in schools, let’s get back to the office, for example) is history repeating itself as we watch this government make stupid choices again. Caution is necessary at this point I think, as such a large proportion of the working population (and all school children) remain unvaccinated and the Indian variant looks so transmitable.

But if I know this government they’ll make choices to undo/sort any issues slightly too late, act slightly too late and autumn will be a shitshow.... again.

No i don't think we will, there may be advice to wear a mask in crowded shops in winter but honestly we are going to have to learn to live with this just like flu it's never going away

Nope. The vaccinations are really ramping up from next week. Our centre is open for 5 days with a daily dosage of 2000. Previously, only 1200 were being administered and centre open for 2 days in a week.

Don't know about lockdown but some open things might close again.

This was how the last wave started, how it starts pretty much everywhere, every time. The only thing that might make a difference is how much protection our half vaccinated population will give us.

The majority of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated which should mean that not a lot of people need hospital treatment compared to previous times.

So it all depends if the vaccine is effective enough to push down the next wave to just a mild illness for the vast majority.

That said, I think a lot of people will not comply again with a no mixing in private homes order.

@TableFlowerss

Yeah because folk think they’re above getting the vaccine and want to exercise their autonomy 🥱

That’s their right, but sadly it will impact on everyone else as things won’t go back to normal until the vast majority of people have been vaccinated.

If the uptake isn’t high enough, even if the death rate is still low, I think we’ll continue to have lockdowns....... sigh

I think the Government would use this to enforce vaccine passports, and make things difficult for those who have chosen not to be vaccinated.

And no, thats not a good thing.

@SteveArnottsCodeine

I definitely feel like some of these things being dropped or soon to be dropped (masks no longer a requirement in schools, let’s get back to the office, for example) is history repeating itself as we watch this government make stupid choices again. Caution is necessary at this point I think, as such a large proportion of the working population (and all school children) remain unvaccinated and the Indian variant looks so transmitable.

But if I know this government they’ll make choices to undo/sort any issues slightly too late, act slightly too late and autumn will be a shitshow.... again.

I agree. I don't think masks in schools should have been dropped until the start of next term at the earliest- once we see where we are with the economy reopening.

The uptake of the vaccine is pretty good, though, isn't it?
There's an area checker here: www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55274833

I plugged in a few local towns near me and all are 85%+ of eligible adults done.

I agree with pp about keeping masks in schools for a little longer. I dropped dc off this morning and half the kids I saw were still wearing them anyway.

It's nice things are finally reopening and we can get out and do things and see people, but I'm honestly not holding out much hope it will last....If this last year has taught us anything, it's expect the unexpected.

Absolutely 100% not.

In the short term (a month or so), I think it'll be dealt with at a local level - in high risk areas get as many vaccinated sooner rather than later alongside keeping an eye on hospital numbers (we have to bear in mind operations have been put on hold, so can't keep taking the same level of covid patients). If numbers grow in certain areas, then I think it'll be a case of local areas having restrictions, and possibly not lifting restrictions planned in June elsewhere.

I'm all for being careful, but we can't keep locking down. We have to find a way forward that keeps people safe, in jobs and being able to live their lives (even if we do have masks, distancing, which I'd gladly accept if we had most other things open to us).

Nope don't think so.

No appetite for any more lock downs and totally unnecessary anyway