Does anyone else think we may end up with yet another lockdown

[Lemonwoe]

I really hope not; the last few were quite hideous. But I can’t help feeling that we are going to end up with another lockdown before the end of term (Scotland: so before 1st July) just hoping that the vaccination program is completed really soon

@Dontforgetyourbrolly

Sounds harsh but the world can't grind to stop because healthy people spend a week in bed and then recover

As long as the volumes are low enough to not have an impact on school, healthcare etc if all off in a short period of time It's this balance which Is key, as well as hospital admissions

I think what people don’t realise when talking about exponential growth and ‘running rampant’ is that the vaccines and population immunity don’t need to be at the magic herd immunity level to have some impact. It doesn’t go from running rampant to herd immunity.

Many people in this country have had this virus now and many are partially or fully vaccinated. Plus we are about to go in to summer where the hospitals aren’t normally busy. Over the summer the vaccine program will continue at pace. It’s a bit of a race against time but we can’t discount all these factors.

I think the loosening of restrictions on travel are by far the biggest threat. Couldnt believe the airport scenes shown yesterday. Planeload of people arriving from India mixing in with everyone else. When every single day the tragedy unfolding there is shown on TV.

In other countries arrivals from ‘red’ countries are kept separate. Obviously. I wonder why we can’t even get the basics right and why we have sacrificed so much for over a year!

@Delatron then why are all the scientists issuing warnings?

[quote bmbm]**@PrincessNutNuts* @Bluntness100*

"SAGE have a high confidence that it's at least 50% more contagious. Tom Wenseleers is confident of his 60%. We'll know for sure pretty soon."

No - they have said there is a reasonable possibility which in science terms is less than 50% - if I can recall correctly it is 25-50% likely. So no, not 'high confidence' nut nuts.[/quote]
Thats correct. In statistical terms, saying something has a "reasonable possibility" of happening still means up to about a 50% chance.

@castemary there’s very little agreement in the science world amongst the experts. As we’ve seen all along! They are not ‘all issuing warnings’

@Delatron who disagrees?

Sorry @castemary I don’t understand you and your brief posts! So every scientist is in agreement that we should go back in to lockdown and are all issuing warnings? Ok, I must have missed the news this morning. Every single scientist in the country is issuing warnings! Right oh.

I can’t even be bothered to argue with something so farfetched..

@delatron I have only seen scientists issue caution over the new variant. All have slightly different views, but all are saying we need to be cautious. If you have seen different views from scientists, then who?

[quote OnTheBrink1]@Slowdownandsee yes obviously I realise it’s the NHS. I was asking how you managed to get the vaccine if you are youngish? Age 35’s are only just being called up?
If your partner has had 2 jabs already, how come? Not many 30 with no health problems somethings have had two jabs?[/quote]
There are lots of reasons he could already be fully vaccinated.
My friend is a doctor and she had both by March.
Some other friends are carers for a family member and have also had both.

I know clinically extremely vulnerable people who only last week had their second jab and are not yet fully protected.
I suspect there has been wide spread fraud by the middle classes to get jabs early.

I wouldn't be surprised if we have yet more lockdowns. This is mainly down to bloody stupid arrogant selfish people.

Who the hell in their right minds decides they have to fly somewhere on the first day the rules are relaxed a bit?

Airports all packed, people coming in from India, probably not everyone wearing a mask or wearing one properly. They must all be mad.

Annoys me too that so many people in areas with the indian variant refuse the vaccination. Again stupid and selfish.

If people would stop just thinking about themselves then we might actually get out of this one day. Never going to happen though. I only have to look at my neighbours to realise there are far too many people ignoring guidelines. Neighbours both sides have had countless visitors since the very first lockdown (all going indoors)

@MercyBooth

There will be calls every winter from the 'independent' sage and 'no risk is acceptable' types to implement lockdowns to 'save lives and protect the NHS

Then the UK should be renamed Narnia where its always winter but never Christmas.

Then the UK should be renamed Narnia where its always winter but never Christmas

@StealthPolarBear

With rates as low as they are this is the point at which our world-beating Test, Trace and Isolate programme should be leaping into action and really working to keep this under control.

Love the MN wags 💕

In all seriousness, we are world beating for cutting commentary.

Onthebrink1 as i said vaccines nhs, ie work in a hospital hence fully vacc ages ago, like thousands of other people, is that ok with you?

@castemary nice backtracking!

I think any sane person thinks we need to proceed with caution. Nothing I posted implied otherwise.

My post was pointing out that you don’t go from zero immunity to herd immunity. There are many stages in between that will have some impact on spread.

There is obviously huge disagreement within the scientific community with regards to how to proceed at the moment. Some are focusing on the worse case models and calling for further lockdowns. Others are more balanced and highlight how the predicted spike from school openings never actually materialised. Plus many of the other worst case models.

Nobody knows at the moment. That is why there is debate.

Are you lot telling me you don't believe our test and trace is world - beating? Well I never.

This is another shitshow in this whole clusterfuck situation, not helped by a very incompetent Gov. of course we are heading for another lockdown. Serious deja vu here

“If people would stop just thinking about themselves then we might actually get out of this one day. Never going to happen though. I only have to look at my neighbours to realise there are far too many people ignoring guidelines. Neighbours both sides have had countless visitors since the very first lockdown (all going indoors)”

Sorry but if I don’t stop thinking about myself soon then I think it will break me. A couple of months ago I would have been there with you, criticising those who broke the rules, but enough is enough. We’ve been in an area where we had about 3 weeks of ‘freedom’ last July. We haven’t seen any family in over a year and live several hours drive away in all directions. In the top tier for so long we haven’t had any semblance of normality, not even being able to see people in gardens until very recently. Next week we plan to go and visit our families. Lockdown or no lockdown (because we will probably get lumped in with Bolton despite having one of the lowest rates in Greater Manchester) we will be going. I haven’t thought of myself this whole way through and now it’s time to start quite frankly.

@delatron Your posts seem contradictory. I did not backtrack.
Yes, scientists do not yet know what the Indian variant will mean. This is why they are urging caution. It does appear to be more transmissible. And people have caught the virus and died who have been fully vaccinated.

[quote castemary]@delatron Your posts seem contradictory. I did not backtrack.
Yes, scientists do not yet know what the Indian variant will mean. This is why they are urging caution. It does appear to be more transmissible. And people have caught the virus and died who have been fully vaccinated.[/quote]
How many have died? After being fully vaccinated that is.

I don’t think we do know although worst case models are provided. Scientist don’t really urge caution in that they say be cautious. They just say we think with these variables this is possible.

Then there’s more to the decisions on top of SAGE, even they would say this.

No, I think we have to go with life now. Be careful, keep our distance, wear masks etc. But I think we are done with lockdown.

How many have died? After being fully vaccinated that is.

There’s a post on here somewhere that said the number is so small it doesn’t move the dial from 0% to 0.001%.

Drs in India have died after being fully vaccinated. Or do they not count as they are not white?