Independent SAGE: Lockdown easing must be delayed

[FriedHam]

I see Independent sage have said that the lockdown easing planned for Monday must be cancelled. This would mean that pubs and restaurants would remain closed indoors and home visiting would not be permitted.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Christina Pagel of independent sage has said this is necessary because of the Indian variant spreading across the country. However, there is no evidence that the vaccines are any less effective against the Indian variant.

Personally I'm just not sure that we can justify keeping businesses closed for longer and the inevitable job losses that will follow on the off chance that a particular variant may cause problems for the vaccine.

So is this a real danger that necessitates cancelling the easing or a desperate attempt by independent sage to remain relevant?

It's a real danger. However, no doubt we will have to go through the whole rigmarole again before action is taken. What is the definition of insanity??? I know we now have vaccines but not in the under 40's! Schools and unis are perfect spreading groups for this highly transmissable variant. I guess boris just wants to see how many actually end up in hospital before he takes action. So here we go again. Another full lockdown coming at some point.

Unless this variant is going to completely evade vaccines and lead to severe illness and an overwhelming of the NHS then there is no justification for delaying opening. This whole thing is getting ridiculous. The supposed whole point of lockdown was to stop hospitals being overwhelmed; surely with so many vaccinated that won't happen again?

@SonnetForSpring

It's a real danger. However, no doubt we will have to go through the whole rigmarole again before action is taken. What is the definition of insanity??? I know we now have vaccines but not in the under 40's! Schools and unis are perfect spreading groups for this highly transmissable variant. I guess boris just wants to see how many actually end up in hospital before he takes action. So here we go again. Another full lockdown coming at some point.

But the under 40s are at minimal risk of serious illness... it has been said so many times that zero covid is not possible... we know cases will rise and from that number there will be some deaths, we have been told this plenty of times. However if its not effecting hospitalizations and deaths massively then of course we carry on re opening give me one reason why we wouldn't.

There is an acceptable level of deaths for anything as much as people don't like the idea, and I feel we are probably there or there abouts now... 20 odds deaths a day out of an average of 1500 of total daily deaths is 1% of daily deaths... you seriously can't suggest we need to stay locked down for something that causes 1% of daily deaths in the uk.

Because if the variant becomes rife, there will be a much higher viral load everywhere and it will make people more unwell. Especially those who cannot/have not been vaccinated irrespective of age. Plus we don't know how long immunity lasts from the vaccines. There are too many unknowns. Anyone who thinks we know stuff for sure, is deluded. It's all trial and error.

Plus vaccines do exert a partial selection pressure on the virus and could result on more virulent mutations. The virus evolves to maximise reproductive success.

It’s only advisory but I can see why it’s the conclusion some may have come to. The Indian variant is growing rapidly in a few areas (I believe Bolton is one of them) and this may be one of the few chances we have to get control of it whilst we wait for conclusive evidence the vaccines (specifically AZ since that’s our predominant one) are effective against it. It’s much easier to gain control of a small problem than a large one.

On the other hand, if the knowledge we currently have about vaccine efficacy holds true for these variants then it’ll all be fine and a sustainable recovery can continue. What no one wants is to move backwards.

It comes down to a lot of unknowns basically. I wouldn’t want to be the one to have to make the final decision (I also don’t want any of the current cabinet to either particularly but apparently the a large proportion of the electorate don’t agree with me on that one).

Plus vaccines do exert a partial selection pressure on the virus and could result on more virulent mutations. The virus evolves to maximise reproductive success. It will continue to do so irrespective of our economic and social needs.

Plus vaccines do exert a partial selection pressure on the virus and could result on more virulent mutations.

Sorry, I have connection issues and mn wasn't responding so now I have lots of duplicate posts.

Plus vaccines do exert a partial selection pressure on the virus and could result on more virulent mutations. The virus evolves to maximise reproductive success. It will continue to do so irrespective of our economic and social needs.

Plus vaccines do exert a partial selection pressure on the virus and could result on more virulent mutations. The virus evolves to maximise reproductive success. It will continue to do so irrespective of our economic and social needs.

I can see both sides on this.

it won't stay at 20 deaths, if this variant takes off, exponential growth remember?

On the other hand, we are all fed up with lockdowns and a lot of people want more freedom.

The rate in my city is very low and still dropping.

How has the Indian variant spread so much when people have had to self isolate on return from overseas and non essential travel has been banned for months now?

Sorry but I'm fed up now. I have not seen my family for a very very long time to protect others and enough is enough.

Indian variant is spreading within the community not from abroad.

Isn’t there a concern the Indian variant is more serious for younger people?

What happened to local tiers, are we all just one tier now? It feels like there could be a more focused response to this.

Well, 'Independent' SAGE are hardly going to say they agree with the government policy, are they?

Easy for them to say that things should be kept shut. They don't have to deal with the real world implications on the economy and society.

Well, 'Independent' SAGE are hardly going to say they agree with the government policy, are they?

Easy for them to say that things should be kept shut. They don't have to deal with the real world implications on the economy and society.

However if its not effecting hospitalizations and deaths massively then of course we carry on re opening give me one reason why we wouldn't.

Risk of virus mutations which are vaccine resistant or start affecting younger people.

It’s funny, I posted a few months back on a post about how the U.K. wasn’t at risk from a new wave. I predicted that we were at risk and was told I was scaremongering because we’re British and amazing and had vaccines etc. Seems the scientists are saying the same here.

However if its not effecting hospitalizations and deaths massively then of course we carry on re opening give me one reason why we wouldn't.

Risk of virus mutations which are vaccine resistant or start affecting younger people.

It’s funny, I posted a few months back on a post about how the U.K. wasn’t at risk from a new wave. I predicted that we were at risk and was told I was scaremongering because we’re British and amazing and had vaccines etc. Seems the scientists are saying the same here.

However if its not effecting hospitalizations and deaths massively then of course we carry on re opening give me one reason why we wouldn't.

Risk of virus mutations which are vaccine resistant or start affecting younger people.

It’s funny, I posted a few months back on a post about how the U.K. wasn’t at risk from a new wave. I predicted that we were at risk and was told I was scaremongering because we’re British and amazing and had vaccines etc. Seems the scientists are saying the same here.

Well, 'Independent' SAGE are hardly going to say they agree with the government policy, are they?

Easy for them to say that things should be kept shut. They don't have to deal with the real world implications on the economy and society.

Well, 'Independent' SAGE are hardly going to say they agree with the government policy, are they?

Easy for them to say that things should be kept shut. They don't have to deal with the real world implications on the economy and society.

Indie Sage would be just the most fun party guests.. 🙄😂 One of them always pops up to say we must stay locked down forever. One lady said until there was zero covid worldwide 🤣 OK sure!

And no @IndigoC - there isn’t. There was concerns about the virus in Brazil but it was concluded that the mutation itself is not more deadly. Rather, socioeconomic. Amongst other things, children dying were badly malnourished which is akin to a serious underlying health condition & highly weakened immune system.

Indie Sage would be just the most fun party guests.. 🙄😂 One of them always pops up to say we must stay locked down forever. One lady said until there was zero covid worldwide 🤣 OK sure!

And no @IndigoC - there isn’t. There was concerns about the virus in Brazil but it was concluded that the mutation itself is not more deadly. Rather, socioeconomic. Amongst other things, children dying were badly malnourished which is akin to a serious underlying health condition & highly weakened immune system.