Independent SAGE: Lockdown easing must be delayed

[FriedHam]

I see Independent sage have said that the lockdown easing planned for Monday must be cancelled. This would mean that pubs and restaurants would remain closed indoors and home visiting would not be permitted.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Christina Pagel of independent sage has said this is necessary because of the Indian variant spreading across the country. However, there is no evidence that the vaccines are any less effective against the Indian variant.

Personally I'm just not sure that we can justify keeping businesses closed for longer and the inevitable job losses that will follow on the off chance that a particular variant may cause problems for the vaccine.

So is this a real danger that necessitates cancelling the easing or a desperate attempt by independent sage to remain relevant?

yep without scientific input we wouldn't have any vaccines, we wouldn't have the roadmap out of lockdown, we would have had cases escalate as in Europe

MRNA vaccines are superior, as are the numbers in Europe 🤷‍♀️

Marsha, the concerning elements is the way the indian variant is out competing the kent variant. The fact it has 2 mutations which allude to vaccine escape. Plus the fact everyone things everything is fine and dandy. I also have family in India. All of them, plus all their friends have had covid this time round. Even the vaccinated have been very unwell. Young family members who are not vaccinated have been worst hit. It is taking them time to recover. People need to open their eyes and take this seriously and not just say "oh india is different". That's what we thought about italy in the first wave.

When I say young, I mean in their 30's

@SonnetForSpring

Marsha, I think they have to get through to people that this is not the end and things are not going to go back to normal this year. Boris is misleading people and it's dangerous and people are ignoring the guidance and not testing. Pubs opening inside is daft IMO. As is mass groups of people. It is nearly summer, we should try and remain outside. Wear masks, space and wash hands etc. And surge test and test some more. I know many parents at my parents primary school are not doing the lateral flow tests.

W,e quite frankly cannot afford to stay locked down any longer How about the pubs that have no outside space who is going to pay their bills The other hospitality such as hotels can they keep running with no customers Quite honestly most people have had enough and I for one am quite prepared to take my chances We should accelerate the vaccination program as much as possible

@megletthesecond

Schools would never have been open since last February if we'd listened to independent sage.

Even in March, Deepti Gurdasandi was adamant that schools reopening would cause a third wave. We're still waiting- and cases have fallen substantially since.

This is a tough one. If the Indian variant represents a serious risk and prolonging lockdown is a good preventive measure, I'm all for it.

On the other hand, I am starting to feel the mental and emotional toll of the prolonged lockdown.

People need to open their eyes and take this seriously and not just say "oh india is different".

Are you suggesting that India is not different?

That population density, infrastructure, poverty, access to health care and the percentage of the population vaccinated are similar in India and the UK?

That's not what I said Iced purple. I'm saying irrespective of those differences, there are people in India who live very similar lifestyles to people in the UK, believe it or not! And they are still being badly affected.

I do wonder if these independent sage types would be advocating ever harsher and longer lockdowns if their livelihoods were on the line.

Would Christina Pagel be supporting indefinite lockdown if her business was about to go under and she was faced with losing her house?

Or perhaps they should try living on 80% of NMW for 14 months and see if lockdown still seems such an attractive proposition

@SonnetForSpring

That's not what I said Iced purple. I'm saying irrespective of those differences, there are people in India who live very similar lifestyles to people in the UK, believe it or not! And they are still being badly affected.

But what's your point?

India is going through a massive surge at the moment. The UK is not. A majority of the population has been vaccinated and numbers are decreasing rapidly, outside a few hot spots. The 'Indian variant' is more transmissable but does not appear to significantly evade the vaccines.

So saying we should extend lockdown because of what is happening in India seems ridiculous.

Independent Sage can go do one

All evidence so far point to the vaccines being effective against all variants of concern. They may be a couple of percentage points less efficient, but the vaccines work better than expected.

The groups of people that account for 99% of hospitalisations and deaths have all been offered at least one vaccine. As you can see from this graph (to Feb 2021 but demographic hasn’t changed), risks will now be minuscule.

It’s also worth noting that the unvaccinated groups are likely to be a large portion of the estimated 30% of the U.K. who have had covid already. Therefore, enough immunity in place while the roll-out continues to the lower age groups. Plus, we’re coming into summer. Cases remained very low last summer, without a vaccine. As with any seasonal respiratory virus.

It would be absolute insanity to prolong the measures. The economy needs to get moving, the NHS need to crack on with the enormous waiting list and people need to get on with living. Independent SAGE need to pipe down and stop trying to scare the nation with their tunnel vision views.

Well let's not argue about. Let's just go through the whole rigmarole again and see what happens shall we. IMO some form of restriction is here to stay until the UK start being more proactive with testing and people start isolating probably. To be honest, I can't see that happening...so on we go.

*isolating properly

That graph is modelled on a thong surely.

Young family members who are not vaccinated have been worst hit. It is taking them time to recover. People need to open their eyes and take this seriously and not just say "oh india is different". That's what we thought about italy in the first wave

I agree, we should be very careful. And any variant that is a risk to the young (and unvaccinated) should be taken seriously without question. I do have some questions sonnet

Are young healthy people actually dying? In high numbers, I see no evidence of that. All covid cases take a while to resolve, if it was a sniffle we would not be in this position.

Secondly, India are not able to treat their patients with the latest drugs to help ease the worst of the symptoms and the risks, many are not having any treatment at all. Largely due to the health infrastructure. Unless you have that, you are going to be at the mercy of any virus on the rampage.

Lastly, up until a few weeks ago India was celebrating many festivities with no restrictions whatsoever, the most likely cause for the explosion in cases is the lack of 'on the ground' education about the risks. Which will hopefully change now I am sure.

I very much hope your family are well, this must be an extremely stressful time for all of you

@SonnetForSpring

Well let's not argue about. Let's just go through the whole rigmarole again and see what happens shall we. IMO some form of restriction is here to stay until the UK start being more proactive with testing and people start isolating probably. To be honest, I can't see that happening...so on we go.

Why would people need to continue to 'isolate properly' if numbers are very low and most people have been vaccinated?

Having to isolate has a massively detrimental and very costly effect on work, education and much else besides. Some people - among them 'Independent' SAGE - don't seem to live in the real world.

I would also add India are probably horrified by the reality of covid, up until now they have remained largely unaffected. I think they are reacting in the same way we did last April.

We should continue the easing, and step up testing and vaccinating.

@Summercocktailsinthesnow

Young family members who are not vaccinated have been worst hit. It is taking them time to recover. People need to open their eyes and take this seriously and not just say "oh india is different". That's what we thought about italy in the first wave

I agree, we should be very careful. And any variant that is a risk to the young (and unvaccinated) should be taken seriously without question. I do have some questions sonnet

Are young healthy people actually dying? In high numbers, I see no evidence of that. All covid cases take a while to resolve, if it was a sniffle we would not be in this position.

Secondly, India are not able to treat their patients with the latest drugs to help ease the worst of the symptoms and the risks, many are not having any treatment at all. Largely due to the health infrastructure. Unless you have that, you are going to be at the mercy of any virus on the rampage.

Lastly, up until a few weeks ago India was celebrating many festivities with no restrictions whatsoever, the most likely cause for the explosion in cases is the lack of 'on the ground' education about the risks. Which will hopefully change now I am sure.

I very much hope your family are well, this must be an extremely stressful time for all of you

Yes no restrictions in India caused this. Most people who are vaccinated have only had 1 shot. When I say young, I mean thirties. Young people who have adequate healthcare are not dying, but they are taking a long time to recover and could end up with long covid. Yes, most of the death is related to not having access to healthcare and living in poverty.

I am not saying people are going to die at the same rates at india but there certainly could be a lot of severe illness and long covid.

I don't think the Indian variant will be any different to the Kent version, so really what we need to do is be careful. It will not take much to take us back to the winter months, India is a reminder to us all.

My heart actually breaks watching the news, and I am so sorry they are suffering so badly. The UK is in a different place, for however long, and we do have some proper protection in place at least.

I can understand your concern, and the panic is infectious sonnet

@SonnetForSpring

I am not saying people are going to die at the same rates at india but there certainly could be a lot of severe illness and long covid.

Watch out. You're not allowed to mention Long Covid on this thread... Apparently it's irrelevant.

I'm sorry about your family members. I hope they recover well.

@SonnetForSpring

The purpose of restrictions is not to prevent long covid though.

Of course any 'long covid' sufferers should get the care and support they need. But it cannot justify shutting society and the economy.

And personally I'm not convinced that the numbers being claimed to suffer long covid are accurate due to the extremely vague definitions.

The situation in India is partly so bad because of the UK strain. Perhaps we won't be quite as badly affected, given we've already had the UK strain do it's damage here?

And personally I'm not convinced that the numbers being claimed to suffer long covid are accurate due to the extremely vague definitions

This is what long Covid sufferers are facing. Dismissal, denial - and a battle to access the scans to check for heart, lung, and other damage. So far many have had to go private. Not an option for all.