Independent SAGE: Lockdown easing must be delayed

[FriedHam]

I see Independent sage have said that the lockdown easing planned for Monday must be cancelled. This would mean that pubs and restaurants would remain closed indoors and home visiting would not be permitted.

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/12/indian-covid-variant-calls-in-question-17-may-reopening-in-uk-say-experts

Christina Pagel of independent sage has said this is necessary because of the Indian variant spreading across the country. However, there is no evidence that the vaccines are any less effective against the Indian variant.

Personally I'm just not sure that we can justify keeping businesses closed for longer and the inevitable job losses that will follow on the off chance that a particular variant may cause problems for the vaccine.

So is this a real danger that necessitates cancelling the easing or a desperate attempt by independent sage to remain relevant?

@itsgettingwierd

Chatterbox if the under 40's are at minimal risk and it doesn't matter that they aren't currently vaccinated - how do we account for all the extremely young people affected in India right now with the variant spreading here know that this won't matter?

I'm not advocating stopping the release but I don't think it's all sunshine and rises like we keep being told.

India is a developing nation where hundreds of millions live in poverty and in massively overcrowded conditions, with little access to healthcare. Add in the fact that major political rallies and religious events were allowed to go ahead only a few months ago, and it's hardly surprising that the virus is spreading in all age groups, with or without some scary new 'variant'.

@itsgettingwierd

Chatterbox if the under 40's are at minimal risk and it doesn't matter that they aren't currently vaccinated - how do we account for all the extremely young people affected in India right now with the variant spreading here know that this won't matter?

I'm not advocating stopping the release but I don't think it's all sunshine and rises like we keep being told.

It's partly a volume issue. A percentage of young people will be affected, if there are high numbers of cases then you have many people. There are those who get hit with a high viral load, those who for some reason get badly affected and also standard vulnerabilities like diabetes, cancer; the rule was 45+ for vaccines until very recently in India and didn't include CEV, a friend's sister is under 45 so couldn't be vaccinated despite having cancer.

Herd immunity also slows disease spread for all generations, not only the older vaccinated ones. For a highly simplistic example, someone infected in a factory might infect 50 colleagues who infect their 40 partners and 80 children, but once the majority are vaccinated only say 10 unvaccinated (younger or refused) and their 15 children get infected instead.

We can't stop the lockdown easing based on this. There's no evidence that the variant evades the vaccine and our deaths are very low. People are sick of lockdown, there won't be much compliance for more restrictions. As the government said, it's time for more personal responsibility now. Those who want to stay in can do so, and those who want to get on with their lives can. I will be in the camp of getting on with my life.

@Nesbo

What happened to local tiers, are we all just one tier now? It feels like there could be a more focused response to this.

It didn't work last year. Leicester was never out and being continuously in lockdown there did nothing too reduce cases.

We need to get back to normality asap, nothing is totally without risk. The damage to long term health mental and physical due to suspension of normal life is already huge enough

I do wonder if these independent sage types would be advocating ever harsher and longer lockdowns if their livelihoods were on the line.

Would Christina Pagel be supporting indefinite lockdown if her business was about to go under and she was faced with losing her house?

@Wakeupin2022

The rate in my city is very low and still dropping.

How has the Indian variant spread so much when people have had to self isolate on return from overseas and non essential travel has been banned for months now?

Sorry but I'm fed up now. I have not seen my family for a very very long time to protect others and enough is enough.

Because India was not in the red list requiring hotel quarantine when cases were rising rapidly, many cases entered the country unchecked probably because those returning from India perhaps did not isolate.

Well Independent Sage can get to fuck! We are opening up, individuals do need to exercise caution if they feel they may be at risk but honestly that lot could suck the joy out of anything! I had Covid, almost double jabbed so I can't be arsed to worry any more!

It will be interesting to see if large mass gatherings such as festivals are allowed to ahead over the next few months.

This conversation has happened time and a time on mumsnet and probably far and wide.

We know what the end will be. It always ends the same.

Moondust001, exactly and look how we have infested the planet irrespective of the detriment to it.

@TableFlowerss

Well we’re in a very very fortunate position with the vulnerable all being vaccinated now, compared to the poor souls in India.

It’s tragic what’s happening there but it’s a different situation here. Now with the vulnerable being vaccinated it will be similar to the flu for death rate. Let’s not forget 20,000 people per year due of flu here each year despite the vaccine but there’s never any talk about lockdowns? Why’s that?.....!

No one ever suggested that there will be zero deaths even after having the vaccine. People will sadly die of covid, equally people will die of flu but not in the hundreds of thousands and that’s the difference.

Exactly this... CMO have said worse case scenario for a winter wave is 9k deaths.... flu has more than that every year... I agree before we couldn't compare it to flu however now fatality rates will be similar so I think we can now compare.

Independent sage what a bunch of irrelevant prats.

@Alonim

This conversation has happened time and a time on mumsnet and probably far and wide.

We know what the end will be. It always ends the same.

Yes. Every time Independent Sage have advised preventative protective action, it's been downplayed and dismissed. It's not going to change now.

It's a shame the government decided to import the Indian strain, because if they hadn't we wouldn't be yet again facing a problem. Perhaps it was in return for us exporting to India the UK strain.

Let's just hope the long Covid sufferers aren't dismissed and receive the treatment they need - including access to scans to check for heart, lung, and other damage. Lots so far have struggled to get taken seriously by doctors. Including the group of doctors who themselves are suffering from it and who wrote a letter to the BMJ about their experiences. So far many patients have only managed to get scans and treatment if they go privately. Which won't be an option for everyone.

So what the fucking hell is the point of vaccines? I'm 39 and I won't be having mine because quite frankly there seems to be no fucking point!!!

Tealights start your own post if you want to discuss that.

@LysistrataVickers

So what the fucking hell is the point of vaccines? I'm 39 and I won't be having mine because quite frankly there seems to be no fucking point!!!

Once the majority of the population are fully vaccinated, the virus won't have much chance to spread. Vaccines for the majority will prevent (or significantly limit) transmission.

@Againstmachine

Tealights start your own post if you want to discuss that.

Why? This is a discussion about the advice from Independent SAGE. If it's ignored, the likelihood of people getting Long Covid potentially increases. So it's relevant to the thread.

yay... let's use any possible excuse to trash the economy and keep people socially isolated. What could possibly be wrong with that?

@Nesbo

What happened to local tiers, are we all just one tier now? It feels like there could be a more focused response to this.

They can sod of with their tiers. I am not getting lumped in with Bolton again 😡.

@Tealightsandd

But the purpose of restrictions is not and never has been to prevent people getting long covid.

It is to stop hospitals being overwhelmed. That's it.

I would also add that the 'circuit breaker' that 'independent sage' proposed in October was implemented in Wales. It made no difference and Wales ended up with one of the highest covid rates in the world.

But the purpose of restrictions is not and never has been to prevent people getting long covid.

Which is why I hope long Covid sufferers are able to access the scans and treatment they will need.

Why? This is a discussion about the advice from Independent SAGE. If it's ignored, the likelihood of people getting Long Covid potentially increases. So it's relevant to the thread.

"Independent" SAGE are just a self-appointed group with no official status. They aren't in a position to advise the government, therefore the question of that 'advice' being 'ignored' is moot.

And just about anything can 'potentially' happen, although we don't normally shut down society to prevent post-viral syndrome.

Long covid sufferers are going to need a lot of NHS care in the future. It all costs money and stretches resources.