Will UK govt covid strategy stop another wave?

[CarrieAntoinette]

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

Other models show no exit wave. Who knows?

Ultimately cases don’t matter if people aren’t being hospitalised and dying with it.

We’ve been mixing for ages now and still the numbers in hospital are reducing.

@Cookerhood

Other models show no exit wave. Who knows?

I don't think I've seen those. Can you point me towards them?

A "wave" of cases doesn't matter if nobody is dying or even ill from it. We probably get "waves" of colds every year but they don't overwhelm the NHS so it doesn't matter. Two thirds of the adult population are already vaccinated, thats how this "wave" will differ from the last two.

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin

Ultimately cases don’t matter if people aren’t being hospitalised and dying with it.

We’ve been mixing for ages now and still the numbers in hospital are reducing.

Cases are how new variants emerge.

And given that B117 has kept the U.K. in restrictions for 7 months so far and still killed 80,000 people, we don't really want anything worse to emerge do we?

My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

Are you taking the amount of vaccinations now done out of the equation for your comparison?

@ChocOrange1

A "wave" of cases doesn't matter if nobody is dying or even ill from it. We probably get "waves" of colds every year but they don't overwhelm the NHS so it doesn't matter. Two thirds of the adult population are already vaccinated, thats how this "wave" will differ from the last two.

People will be ill and they will die from it though won't they? The more cases we allow to happen the more hospitalisations and deaths will happen.

25.8 % of the U.K. population has had two doses of vaccine.

52.7 have had one.

That leaves almost half the country entirely unvaccinated and 75% either unvaccinated or partially vaccinated.

Not to mention that the blue sections under "deaths" in this graph are vaccinated people.

@Sparklingbrook

My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

Are you taking the amount of vaccinations now done out of the equation for your comparison?

No.

I'm assuming that half the country having had one dose, and a quarter having had both will hamper the spread initially until it builds up a head of steam.

Although it's hard to see how vaccination will help much in largely still unvaccinated workplaces and schools.

Ah. Assuming. Right.

@Sparklingbrook

Ah. Assuming. Right.

You haven't assumed that the vaccines will help?

Some experts predict "localised" outbreaks. Which means places like London (densely populated, high rates of deprivation, frontline of international travel) and some other areas of deprivation. In which case nobody, least of all the government, will care and certainly nothing will be done to mitigate a localised spread. Whether there will be another national wave (in which case mitigation measures will be taken) is up in the air.

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin

Ultimately cases don’t matter if people aren’t being hospitalised and dying with it.

We’ve been mixing for ages now and still the numbers in hospital are reducing.

The rules where I live don't let me go inside a pub, go clubbing, go to choir practice or an exercise class, go to a comedy club or gig, spend the day indoors with 300 guests at a wedding, hug my mum, or have friends round my house.

Where you live may be different.

Well I’m hoping so but.... I’ve had one vaccine and am otherwise very fit healthy and young and have been in bed a week with this virus after my youngest kid got it from school last week and gave it to her siblings then myself, I’ve just managed get out of bed for my first shower in four days, I’ve never felt this weak before, I’m worried that things are opening up and there will be many more people like myself, part or not quite yet vaccinated and it continue to spread, I was feeling fairly optimistic about things until a fortnight ago, and certainly am not now, I’m still fighting it but it’s really draining and I’m struggling.

I’ve not assumed anything OP but they are a major difference between the first lockdown and now.
I think your agenda is not open to question maybe.

@Tealightsandd

Some experts predict "localised" outbreaks. Which means places like London (densely populated, high rates of deprivation, frontline of international travel) and some other areas of deprivation. In which case nobody, least of all the government, will care and certainly nothing will be done to mitigate a localised spread. Whether there will be another national wave (in which case mitigation measures will be taken) is up in the air.

That was pretty much how it began before.

Wherever groups of people are vulnerable to spread it will spread.

With half the country unvaccinated and being here's back into offices that's a lot of people vulnerable to spread.

Not enough will be done as per previous experience and current plan.

So here we go again.

Wave 3, Lockdown 4.

What do you gain from all of this CarrieAntoinette? Modelling is just that modelling from the best to the worst case scenario? What do you want from all of this.

Because the cold hard truth is that we cannot go on like this anymore - we cant continue to live in fear from this and to be honest the mutations are such that it is unlikely that anything much worse will emerge from this that we cant quickly get booster shots out. And so far most of the vaccines are holding up against the variants.

Covid isnt going to mutate into the something nastier - that will be something else.

The ONLY part of the Government strategy that I think has the potential for difficulities is opening up the borders. That is one thing we dont need to rush.

And what you have missed off though is how the vaccinated people proportionally make up those who are getting seriously ill and dying. We are approaching I think by the 17th May most over 40s having had one dose and those groups highlighted as needing one dose by February having had the second.

So what do you want and hope to achieve by these posts?

@Sparklingbrook

I’ve not assumed anything OP but they are a major difference between the first lockdown and now. I think your agenda is not open to question maybe.

Can you rephrase that? I don't understand what you're saying.

It sounds as if you are operating under the assumption that he vaccines will help the same same, but you say you're not.

And I don't understand the other part at all.

No I’m not rephrasing anything OP. I’m not sure what’s going on with your agenda TBH.

No, we are doomed and will be locked down forever and Boris is a fuckwit

Let's face it, thats the only response you want.

@Bordois

No, we are doomed and will be locked down forever and Boris is a fuckwit

Let's face it, thats the only response you want.

Yes that’s how it seems. I’m out.

Also OP if you are going to posts graphs etc a link would be helpful - it is difficult to read the graphs and you dont include the context. From remembering reading the report a lot of the modelling was based on a much lower vaccine take up than we have.

@Quartz2208

What do you gain from all of this CarrieAntoinette? Modelling is just that modelling from the best to the worst case scenario? What do you want from all of this.

Because the cold hard truth is that we cannot go on like this anymore - we cant continue to live in fear from this and to be honest the mutations are such that it is unlikely that anything much worse will emerge from this that we cant quickly get booster shots out. And so far most of the vaccines are holding up against the variants.

Covid isnt going to mutate into the something nastier - that will be something else.

The ONLY part of the Government strategy that I think has the potential for difficulities is opening up the borders. That is one thing we dont need to rush.

And what you have missed off though is how the vaccinated people proportionally make up those who are getting seriously ill and dying. We are approaching I think by the 17th May most over 40s having had one dose and those groups highlighted as needing one dose by February having had the second.

So what do you want and hope to achieve by these posts?

Since the original covid has already mutated into several "something nastiers" I don't understand your assertion that it "won't" mutate into something nastier?

It already has.

I don't understand the basis for stating unequivocally that it's not going to.

For a start, half the country isn't unvaccinated. As of today, nearly 67% of the population have had one dose and nearly 33% both doses. So one third of the country is fully vaccinated, including the most vulnerable groups, which will prevent the vast majority of hospitalisations and deaths, and two thirds are partly vaccinated, which will prevent a lot of disease and a lot of serious disease. Nearly half a million people had their second dose yesterday. Lots of teachers and TAs are already vaccinated and many more will be vaccinated in the coming weeks. We are also moving into the summer where the spread is likely to be lower because of weather, ventilation, outdoor living, and climate factors no one fully understands yet, just like colds and flu.

So you may be right or you may be wrong, but in any case you need to get the data right first.

OP isn't very good and actually interesting graphs, they just like to make themself seem cleverer than they are.

*interpreting