Will UK govt covid strategy stop another wave?

[CarrieAntoinette]

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

@COVIDtesting

But if they had offered it to all of the first 4 groups between December 8th and February 15th then I'm still ok with my assumption that most of the people in the first three groups were done in the first eight weeks out of ten.

Where are you getting that the first four groups were offered it by 15th Feb? I don’t remember that at all, and can’t find anywhere that says it happened. It may have been their plan, but that doesn’t mean it actually happened.

Plus, this is the government who counted each glove as a separate piece of PPE. If I let all 16yo book a vaccine for next September then technically they fall in to the “been offered” category but we can’t take that piece of info and assume that all over 18s have now been jabbed.

There was about three days of the government congratulating itself after a week of the BBC leading news bulletins with "nearly there".

The Guardian seems to suggest they hit that target:

But loads of countries have the Indian Variant - I am not sure there was much we could do to stop one case coming in.

I dont think you can work out what you want to work out with the delay. You would need data on when they got COVID, when they would have had the second, would the second have kicked in, what effect them having the second jab would have had down the line.

You need to let this one go. As I said there have been many missteps and bad decisions. This was simply a decision, a choice.

Given that one dose of Pfizer is up to 80% I think getting more people that level rather than fewer 90% is correct

www.cnbc.com/2021/03/29/cdc-study-shows-single-dose-of-pfizer-or-moderna-covid-vaccines-was-80percent-effective.html

That graph is utter garbage. It is taking the percentage vaccinated and comparing it with the percentage in each priority group. The two are not necessarily linked. Absolute shite that my A level classes could pull apart in minutes. Though, to be fair, they’d describe it as “misleading” or “unscientific” rather than “absolute shite”.

princess, do you believe that single person in the top three groups accepted the vaccine when offered?

@ChloeCrocodile

That graph is utter garbage. It is taking the percentage vaccinated and comparing it with the percentage in each priority group. The two are not necessarily linked. Absolute shite that my A level classes could pull apart in minutes. Though, to be fair, they’d describe it as “misleading” or “unscientific” rather than “absolute shite”.

princess, do you believe that single person in the top three groups accepted the vaccine when offered?

Well who were they vaccinating when they should have been vaccinating the first couple of most vulnerable groups then?

This sounds like a huge scandal in the making.

@bookworm1632

People seem unable to grasp the rather simple concept that when they say vaccines are 95% effective at doing x, that means for 5% they don't work.

5% of a very large number is a large number.

Worst case scenario planning puts 150k dead in a UK third wave.

We don't know yet whether vaccination is ANY protection against long covid.

A third wave is most definitely bad news.

And to the OP - no I don't think the government's strategy will work to stop it - they've left intervention too late and there won't be the political will to make the level of intervention required now to stop the Indian variant taking off. As time goes on, the situation will worsen and the required intervention will be more severe.

It's an unholy mess.

It's really is @bookworm1632.

Again.

I think it's going to lead to school closures through illness, isolation and staff shortages.

@WaverleyPirate

I think it's going to lead to school closures through illness, isolation and staff shortages.

I do too.

@WaverleyPirate

I think it's going to lead to school closures through illness, isolation and staff shortages.

Bubbles are already bursting.

@bookworm1632

People seem unable to grasp the rather simple concept that when they say vaccines are 95% effective at doing x, that means for 5% they don't work.

5% of a very large number is a large number.

Worst case scenario planning puts 150k dead in a UK third wave.

We don't know yet whether vaccination is ANY protection against long covid.

A third wave is most definitely bad news.

And to the OP - no I don't think the government's strategy will work to stop it - they've left intervention too late and there won't be the political will to make the level of intervention required now to stop the Indian variant taking off. As time goes on, the situation will worsen and the required intervention will be more severe.

It's an unholy mess.

THIS

Swift decisive action was needed to prevent this variant taking off. That was the case a couple of weeks ago.

As you say, the political will to put on the breaks isn’t there so we will do this the hard way when things get out of hand, once again.

It’s almost like a new pandemic starting all over again.

Meanwhile, right on the cusp on another wave the government plans to end the eviction ban. Many thousands of families and individuals all becoming homeless at the same time is not the best way to contain the spread of a highly transmissible virus.

@traumatisednoodle

I am a hospital doctor in Kent. The vaccine has saved lives. By Febuary very few admissions were over 80. In december the vast majority. That's when deaths started falling as well. One dose prevents hospitalisation and death- undoubtedly.

Not doubting your experience at all. But lockdown starting at the beginning of Jan would have had a big impact on transmission, especially in the oldest age groups who weren't going to work.

@Tealightsandd

Meanwhile, right on the cusp on another wave the government plans to end the eviction ban. Many thousands of families and individuals all becoming homeless at the same time is not the best way to contain the spread of a highly transmissible virus.

Do they have some kind of bet on to see which government department can implement the most opposite policy to what should be done in a pandemic?

I think so @PrincessNutNuts

@Tealightsandd

I think so *@PrincessNutNuts*

The other day my kids did an impression of me that went "That's the exact bloody opposite of what we need to do!!" and all threw a cushion at the smug afternoon BBC newsreader in unison.

Reader, it was spot on.

Here are the minutes from yesterday's emergency SAGE meeting:,

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

SPI-M-O is therefore confident that B.1.617.2 has a significant growth advantage over the UK’s currently dominant strain, B.1.1.7. The difference in growth rates between B.1.617.2 and B.1.1.7 is consistent with the former having a transmission advantage of more than 50%; this is based on observed growth that has already happened and it is unclear whether this same growth advantage would apply to sustained wider community transmission regionally or nationally. Resolving this question of the applicability of this growth advantage to the wider population will be difficult while the number of cases are small and relatively focussed.
22. Considering this, it is a realistic possibility that this scale of B.1.617.2 growth could lead to a very large increase in transmission. At this point in the vaccine roll out, there are still too few adults vaccinated to prevent a significant resurgence that ultimately could put unsustainable pressure on the NHS, without non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Better link: (hopefully)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/986709/S12377SPI-M-OConsensussStatement.pdf

Tweet if the link still doesn't work:

twitter.com/_johnbye/status/1393289442698407940?s=21

*traumatisednoodle

I am a hospital doctor in Kent. The vaccine has saved lives. By Febuary very few admissions were over 80. In december the vast majority. That's when deaths started falling as well. One dose prevents hospitalisation and death- undoubtedly.

Not doubting your experience at all. But lockdown starting at the beginning of Jan would have had a big impact on transmission, especially in the oldest age groups who weren't going to work.*

Actually lockdown reduces rates best in the working/school age population. The over 80's frequently can't isolate in the same way. Yes this is anecdote but we were still seeing admissions of 70-80 (and the odd 50-70) year olds in Febuary remember there were still 10-20,000 cases a day. Most spread is between household members. We were all still allowed our support bubbles in the last lockdown- lots contained adults in their 60 &70's. People were still getting sick.

They need to do the Australian approach of sharp local lockdowns in the areas concerned alongside surge testing and vaccination

A national (England) approach at this moment would be daft based on the report because in other areas where it is dropping the damage done by lockdown far outweighs the benefits

It’s a political issue though given it’s Andy Burnham area, Boris Johnson and the Central government should be working with local government to create a joint plan over the next two weeks in the effected areas including financial support to cover the lockdown needed and the testing/vaccinations

I have no love for Boris and I do think he should have "redlisted" India much sooner (or even insisted on universal hotel quarrintine). However he is now stuck between a rock and a hard place, round here rates are 5-10/100,000 DC back at school very difficult to justify not opening hospitality. But he has commited to a UK wide policey after the fiasco of tiers last Autumn. Unfortunately the third wave is on it's way; my prediction is at best the 17th May is the last easing, worst case nationwide all nation tier 2 restrictions by July.

Yes I think tiers was a mistake - which is why this should be a shorter sharper harder lockdown in the areas of concern

Quartz how do you stop people travelling out of the area to jo restrictions and taking variant with them?

I think this is the main issue with localised way

I read somewhere that the Indian variant had already been detected in the UK as far as February (probably wasn't identified as a variant of concern back then). The horse had already bolted.

@WaverleyPirate

I think it's going to lead to school closures through illness, isolation and staff shortages.

Yet masks are being removed from tomorrow

@Quartz2208

Yes I think tiers was a mistake - which is why this should be a shorter sharper harder lockdown in the areas of concern

As Marsha says, they don't work, we can't stop people travelling.

What i would like to know is why wasn't India excluded earlier and why, when local data would have shown up low vaccination rates in Bolton etc wasn't this addressed earlier?

HOWL HOWL HOWL!

WE ARE ALL DOOMED!!!