Will UK govt covid strategy stop another wave?

[CarrieAntoinette]

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

@Quartz2208

Also OP if you are going to posts graphs etc a link would be helpful - it is difficult to read the graphs and you dont include the context. From remembering reading the report a lot of the modelling was based on a much lower vaccine take up than we have.

Here's the Warwick modelling:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/975911/S11844SPI-MUniversityyofWarwickkRoadMappScenariosandd_Sensitivity.pdf

No I don't think we'll have other lockdowns. Most of the adult population will soon have received their 2 vaccines and from what I've understood there will be booster ones available in autumn. There might be more cases again in the autumn/winter but thanks to the vaccines the hospitalisations/death rates will not be that high. so I don't think lockdowns are needed anymore.

@Ontopofthesunset

For a start, half the country isn't unvaccinated. As of today, nearly 67% of the population have had one dose and nearly 33% both doses. So one third of the country is fully vaccinated, including the most vulnerable groups, which will prevent the vast majority of hospitalisations and deaths, and two thirds are partly vaccinated, which will prevent a lot of disease and a lot of serious disease. Nearly half a million people had their second dose yesterday. Lots of teachers and TAs are already vaccinated and many more will be vaccinated in the coming weeks. We are also moving into the summer where the spread is likely to be lower because of weather, ventilation, outdoor living, and climate factors no one fully understands yet, just like colds and flu.

So you may be right or you may be wrong, but in any case you need to get the data right first.

Where's your data from please?

Here's mine:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/21/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

I think there will be another wave. May not be till sept though.
But everyone is back to kids activites etc and that will soon be inside.
The 40s are not 21+ days from vax 1 yet.
Hopefully once parents have one vax that will slow it down getting into schools.
We are hitting majority of reception parents getting vaxxed.

So what do you want then? What's the answer? Stay in lockdown forever so nobody ever gets ill? You can choose to do that for yourself, crack on, but stop trying to spread your fear around. We're getting back to normal. Get used to it.

@Kljnmw3459

No I don't think we'll have other lockdowns. Most of the adult population will soon have received their 2 vaccines and from what I've understood there will be booster ones available in autumn. There might be more cases again in the autumn/winter but thanks to the vaccines the hospitalisations/death rates will not be that high. so I don't think lockdowns are needed anymore.

My second is in late July, and it's my understanding that the young people having their first in June and July won't get their second until September/October.

Happy to be corrected if someone knows better than me.

@Bordois

OP isn't very good and actually interesting graphs, they just like to make themself seem cleverer than they are.

It's a very straightforward graph that doesn't really need any interpretation.

The big blue sections under "Hospital Admissions" "Deaths" are vaccinated people. The red ones are unvaccinated.

It's here on page 21 if you can't read my picture: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/975911/S11844SPI-MUniversityyofWarwickkRoadMappScenariosandd_Sensitivity.pdf

Because the nastiers have not escaped the vaccine so far.

Your vaccination data is from April 21st which is 2 weeks ago

@Slowdownandsee

Well I’m hoping so but.... I’ve had one vaccine and am otherwise very fit healthy and young and have been in bed a week with this virus after my youngest kid got it from school last week and gave it to her siblings then myself, I’ve just managed get out of bed for my first shower in four days, I’ve never felt this weak before, I’m worried that things are opening up and there will be many more people like myself, part or not quite yet vaccinated and it continue to spread, I was feeling fairly optimistic about things until a fortnight ago, and certainly am not now, I’m still fighting it but it’s really draining and I’m struggling.

God I hope you feel better soon. Rest up my lovely, takeaway for dinner?

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/ thisnpage gives the most up to date vaccination figures. I think yours are out of date

@Sparklingbrook

No I’m not rephrasing anything OP. I’m not sure what’s going on with your agenda TBH.

Ok, well I'll cheerfully leave it there then.

I think most people are expecting there to be a wave and boosters I assume will be given out at the same time as the flu vaccine.

Personally I think we may see some localised clusters that mean shutting down of schools etc over the next few months but nothing on the scale we have seen before

@Bordois

No, we are doomed and will be locked down forever and Boris is a fuckwit

Let's face it, thats the only response you want.

It's not really up to me how people respond is it?

I mean... Ideally I'd like an answer to my question, but clearly everyone is free to respond in any way they'd like.

And they are

I don't know who created those exact graphs, but I believe these are based on this model, published in March, and the latest data they took into account was from January, so very out of date already;

www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00143-2/fulltext

The key problem is (as they state themselves) was at that point, there was little or no real evidence about how the vaccine reduced transmissability; which we now have a lot of evidence that it does, very effectively. They used quite pessimistic assumptions for this; looking at that graph, it seems to show their results for an assumption of a 35% effectiveness in infection reduction, leading to around 300 deaths a day in summer.

Based on much more current evidence, their estimate for gradual relaxation from April/high vacc takeup/high reduction in transmissability, their model seems to suggest more like 50/deaths a day at the next peak.

So - old model, outdated assumptions, if that's where the data is from.

I think the current approach is reasonably balanced and the vaccines are performing really well (better than we could have anticipated).

Zero covid is not the aim of the current approach and, in my view, is unrealistic for the U.K. as an aim in any event.

I think there is a decent prospect that serious illness and death will reach/stay at levels that are comparable with other infectious diseases. If not, the approach will need to be reconsidered. I do think we have to try though, the current situation really isn't sustainable.

@Ontopofthesunset

For a start, half the country isn't unvaccinated. As of today, nearly 67% of the population have had one dose and nearly 33% both doses. So one third of the country is fully vaccinated, including the most vulnerable groups, which will prevent the vast majority of hospitalisations and deaths, and two thirds are partly vaccinated, which will prevent a lot of disease and a lot of serious disease. Nearly half a million people had their second dose yesterday. Lots of teachers and TAs are already vaccinated and many more will be vaccinated in the coming weeks. We are also moving into the summer where the spread is likely to be lower because of weather, ventilation, outdoor living, and climate factors no one fully understands yet, just like colds and flu.

So you may be right or you may be wrong, but in any case you need to get the data right first.

As of today, nearly 67% of the population have had one dose and nearly 33% both doses

I think those percentages are based on all.adults over 18. So if you include all children, the percentage of the population vaccinated is likely to be closer to the number given by the op.

@PatriciaHolm

I don't know who created those exact graphs, but I believe these are based on this model, published in March, and the latest data they took into account was from January, so very out of date already;

www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00143-2/fulltext

The key problem is (as they state themselves) was at that point, there was little or no real evidence about how the vaccine reduced transmissability; which we now have a lot of evidence that it does, very effectively. They used quite pessimistic assumptions for this; looking at that graph, it seems to show their results for an assumption of a 35% effectiveness in infection reduction, leading to around 300 deaths a day in summer.

Based on much more current evidence, their estimate for gradual relaxation from April/high vacc takeup/high reduction in transmissability, their model seems to suggest more like 50/deaths a day at the next peak.

So - old model, outdated assumptions, if that's where the data is from.

It's from the more optimistic on transmission and take up Warwick University modelling from March 29th. That article is from March 18th.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/975911/S11844SPI-MUniversityyofWarwickkRoadMappScenariosandd_Sensitivity.pdf

@dementedpixie

www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/ thisnpage gives the most up to date vaccination figures. I think yours are out of date

I got mine from here:

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/21/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

They are the same.

According to the Guardian, 52.7% of the population have received at least one dose. Some of these numbers are forgetting about children.

I'm 38 and still don't know when I will get my first jab but given the 40+ people I know could only get appointments in the second half of May when it opened up to them, I'm presuming end of May for first and end of August for my second. It does make me nervous that I may be expected to get back to 2019 style normal before I can enjoy protection.

@namechange34

According to the Guardian, 52.7% of the population have received at least one dose. Some of these numbers are forgetting about children.

I'm 38 and still don't know when I will get my first jab but given the 40+ people I know could only get appointments in the second half of May when it opened up to them, I'm presuming end of May for first and end of August for my second. It does make me nervous that I may be expected to get back to 2019 style normal before I can enjoy protection.

And long before we reach the herd immunity threshold.

More cases probably, but if it is not more hospitalisations and not more deaths, then the vaccination programme will have achieved its aims.

@Quartz2208

Because the nastiers have not escaped the vaccine so far.

Your vaccination data is from April 21st which is 2 weeks ago

They don't have to.

They just have to be more transmissible.

My numbers are from The Guardian today. (And Travelling Tabby evidently)

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/21/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

I knew before I even opened this thread it would be you OP.

@newnortherner111

More cases probably, but if it is not more hospitalisations and not more deaths, then the vaccination programme will have achieved its aims.

Agreed.

I certainly hope it will be able to when/if we reach herd immunity in the autumn.

OK - then looking at that, it's still quite out of date, and their higher efficiency assumptions are more likely now we have more data (in fact they are still relatively low on reduction of symptoms) - so their results based on that are better than the default ones which the graph shows.

The higher effectiveness assumptions show daily deaths around 50/60 at peak as far as I can tell from the graph.