Will UK govt covid strategy stop another wave?

[CarrieAntoinette]

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

@OwlTwitterings

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

If they keep most countries on the amber or red lists for travel and the speculation about wfh continuing indefinitely, then I think we will be ok. What the government can’t control is vaccine uptake, as that is a personal choice, but as long as it remains high (especially if children are added to the vaccination plans) I think we will be fine.

As long as we don’t lockdown again and schools stay open.

I think all the current variants of concern are already here.

And we are opening up in June but vaccination will continue into October.

And beyond if we include third doses.

@Goodasgolden

Also by the time the 20s are being vaccinated I’m sure they won’t be leaving 12 weeks between Pfizer doses, that was only done because we were in an emergency situation in January and just needed as many 1st jabs done ASAP. The younger adults could be fully vaccinated a month from their first jab if they change it back to 3 weeks.

I've wondered about that myself.

So what do you think we should do OP? Stay locked down until October? Or beyond then? Until everyone has received a third vaccination?

What if there is still some covid around then? Is there a point at which you would consider it appropriate to lift lockdown?

@PatriciaHolm

OK - then looking at that, it's still quite out of date, and their higher efficiency assumptions are more likely now we have more data (in fact they are still relatively low on reduction of symptoms) - so their results based on that are better than the default ones which the graph shows.

The higher effectiveness assumptions show daily deaths around 50/60 at peak as far as I can tell from the graph.

Well we don't have long to wait.

According to them numbers will start ticking up in just a few weeks.

@Slowdownandsee

Thankyou CarrieAntoinette, just had first proper meal in days and off back to bed but it’s done me good. I think people just need to be so careful still as until all adults have had at least one vaccine and ideally both there will of course be outbreaks from schools etc to parents, like someone said up thread just because a younger person is less likely to be hospitalised doesn’t mean it’s plain sailing, I’ve been really ill and not through it yet i don’t think. It feels like younger people , so 45 and under maybe, and children are going to be at risk over the coming weeks and months. I don’t know the solution to that, my children certainly would struggle with more lockdown, as it is we are all still isolating due to our current illness which is just like more lockdown for them and once they were well enough had to do online school again and two classes are closed down at the school. Public health England involved as possible variant.

Yes, both the school my brother's older children go to, and the one nearest to us have a couple of dozen cases each now I've been told. It does feel a bit like it's starting up again.

I hope you haven't got many more days of feeling dreadful. Take care.

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin

Ultimately cases don’t matter if people aren’t being hospitalised and dying with it.

We’ve been mixing for ages now and still the numbers in hospital are reducing.

Where do you live that everyone's been mixing?

Thank you everyone. Apologies if I haven't responded. I'm going for my dinner now.

@CarrieAntoinette

Give our love to Boris!

As with all things Covid - it's all a best guess balancing act following the science and finessing latest emergency criminal laws, rules and regulations to accommodate and administer preventative solutions. It's potential medical safety risks versus benefits of activities with associated physical, mental and economic well being. Very difficult to constantly monitor to strike the optimal balance in terms of implementation of Covid risk mitigation strategies and measures to ensure some pre pandemic activities can be safeguarded but with necessary restrictions as to not curtail the essence of the original purpose or activities.

Sustainability as ever is the key as I am sure all of us rather prefer long term eradication or containment than perpetual cycles of doom and gloom of lost lives (some with life long Covid disease symptoms) and livelihoods with recent open and closed disruptions. Short term and instant gratification is not worth it for a once in a lifetime global medical pandemic if we can collectively do a little more to help us all see through this by vaccination and moderations of activities mindful of our potential Covid footprint to protect the health service and in turn each other. We need to ensure that we collectively beat this pesky virus together as then we can all forget about the recent troubles and reach the new normal of living life free of restrictions and fear of potentially causing harm to ourselves and each other. Holidays and leisurely activities etc can be more local if necessary as I am positive all the joys of the past will materialise if we can hold on for a little bit longer until we can be more confident that we can avoid another pandemic wave beating the current vaccines etc. Ideally it would be helpful if more of us are vaccinated. Scientifically I would gather that would include the whole population especially those that are known to also be super spreaders but at less serious disease risk ie children. Children are infected too and needs to be prevented from spreading as there is minimal or superficial risk mitigation in Covid tag incubation schools and shared mass public transportation etc. It's tough but needs must as otherwise it’s very disappointing and predictable perpetual and unsustainable déjà vu! Hopefully I am wrong totally off the mark nothing to see and going hunky-dory

Models are just that models, the weather services use them all time and aren't always correct. You also have to rely on info put in and the quality of the program.
Modelling is just a prediction it's Not facts.

@CarrieAntoinette

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

No, it's going to cause another wave.

www.theguardian.com/travel/2021/may/09/traffic-light-travel-plan-will-let-new-covid-variants-into-uk-scientists-warn

@Torvean

There's no UK govt strategy. We are not all in this together. BoJo thinks only of England with no care of the roll on effect to Svotlsnd or Wales in particular.

Why would he? Health is a devolved issue.

Possibly but it will be down to luck. Allowing the virus to keep spreading heavily amongst the young could cause another variant, holidays could let a variant in. If a variant evades vaccines that’s another wave. We might get lucky though and evade all that. I really hope so. I continue to be optimistic while quietly being prepared for the possibility it isn’t over. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst, expect anything in between.

@PatriciaHolm

OK - then looking at that, it's still quite out of date, and their higher efficiency assumptions are more likely now we have more data (in fact they are still relatively low on reduction of symptoms) - so their results based on that are better than the default ones which the graph shows.

The higher effectiveness assumptions show daily deaths around 50/60 at peak as far as I can tell from the graph.

Models are now being updated with real world information:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/01/covid-modellers-optimistic-third-wave-may-not-happen/

This is interesting

Haven't read the full thread, will pop back later and do so

@TattyDevine

This is interesting

Wow, some of those assumptions were way out!

Just you stay at home then, Carrie. Forever. Because I hate to break it to you, but there is never going to be zero covid. You are going to have to get your head around the fact that even though we have an amazing vaccine programme, there are going to be cases, probably peaking each winter. And yes, as with other viruses like flu, there will probably have to be boosters for the vulnerable every year.

And people will still die.

But there won't be any more lockdowns because firstly the country can't afford to be stopping the economy functioning any more, and secondly, because lots of us just won't comply with it any more.

Feel free to spend the rest of your life cowering at home under the duvet with your graphs, terrified of germs and bugs and viruses and strains and mutations and the rest of it though.

I think a more pertinent question is can another wave be prevented without remaining in indefinite lockdown?

Indeed @bordois

Let's face it, when even Neil Sodding Ferguson has stopped peddling doom, things must be looking up.

@RaspberryCoulis

Just you stay at home then, Carrie. Forever. Because I hate to break it to you, but there is never going to be zero covid. You are going to have to get your head around the fact that even though we have an amazing vaccine programme, there are going to be cases, probably peaking each winter. And yes, as with other viruses like flu, there will probably have to be boosters for the vulnerable every year.

And people will still die.

But there won't be any more lockdowns because firstly the country can't afford to be stopping the economy functioning any more, and secondly, because lots of us just won't comply with it any more.

Feel free to spend the rest of your life cowering at home under the duvet with your graphs, terrified of germs and bugs and viruses and strains and mutations and the rest of it though.

That's almost word for word what people on here said last summer...

@bathsh3ba

I think a more pertinent question is can another wave be prevented without remaining in indefinite lockdown?

Of course it can.

But the government's strategy IS lockdowns.

@TattyDevine

Indeed *@bordois*

Let's face it, when even Neil Sodding Ferguson has stopped peddling doom, things must be looking up.

He's a walking government press release these days bless him.

Where's your chart from Tatty? Shall I bother checking the numbers or is it from The Telegraph?

Last summer.... when vaccinations were still a theory.

Yup, there's absolutely no difference at all.

Fucksake, why do I keep engaging with the doom mongers?