Will UK govt covid strategy stop another wave?

[CarrieAntoinette]

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

@RaspberryCoulis

Last summer.... when vaccinations were still a theory.

Yup, there's absolutely no difference at all.

Fucksake, why do I keep engaging with the doom mongers?

We were right though, huh?

There were more waves, the government handled them ineffectively and so there were more lockdowns.

Vaccines make things easier for the government to implement an effective covid strategy because they do so much of the heavy lifting.

But the government don't seem to have any plans to implement an effective covid strategy.

So I'm betting on more waves and more lockdowns.

Who knows?
IF the vaccines remain effective and provid lasting protection into next winter (assuming the booster doses are administered in time)

Then like other diseases, CV will exist at the margins.

IF it mutates into a variant that is vaccine immune, then we back to last March.

For my sanity, i'll stick with the former.

I’m curious @CarrieAntoinette what would your solution be?

@Allmyarseandpeggymartin

I’m curious *@CarrieAntoinette* what would your solution be?

To what?

@CarrieAntoinette I give up

To what?

World peace? Where socks disappear to in the wash?

[quote Allmyarseandpeggymartin]@CarrieAntoinette I give up[/quote]
Well that's rarely a solution to anything...

On your previous threads carrie you asserted that opening schools (stage 1) would inevitably would cause another wave of cases. This never happened. Have you any explanation for this? I expect you will come back with recent examples in schools eg the recent school with 100 cases. However it is clear that opening schools in early March did not cause a massive explosion in community transmission.

It’s quite irritating when you constantly state your opinions as inevitable when any reasonable person would accept there is uncertainty. I am generally a cautious optimist about the situation currently but am keen to hear different views including those more pessimistic. But I can’t take your posts seriously as you are so selective in your data and choose not to answer reasonable questions (eg around how vaccinations have changed the situation compared to last summer).

Ok, so a third wave is sweeping towards us.... what should we be doing now? When will this wave arrive?

I am hoping against hope we are not doomed, but you say we definitely are. Do you see any way out?

@IrmaFayLear

Ok, so a third wave is sweeping towards us.... what should we be doing now? When will this wave arrive?

I am hoping against hope we are not doomed, but you say we definitely are. Do you see any way out?

It might be best to quote me saying it, rather than just make up stuff and say I've said it.

@UmbilicusProfundus

On your previous threads carrie you asserted that opening schools (stage 1) would inevitably would cause another wave of cases. This never happened. Have you any explanation for this? I expect you will come back with recent examples in schools eg the recent school with 100 cases. However it is clear that opening schools in early March did not cause a massive explosion in community transmission.

It’s quite irritating when you constantly state your opinions as inevitable when any reasonable person would accept there is uncertainty. I am generally a cautious optimist about the situation currently but am keen to hear different views including those more pessimistic. But I can’t take your posts seriously as you are so selective in your data and choose not to answer reasonable questions (eg around how vaccinations have changed the situation compared to last summer).

It might be best to quote me saying it, rather than just make up stuff and say I've said it.

There won’t be a wave

Whether it’s 50/60% of people who’ve had vaccines it doesn’t matter

What’s important is that It’s almost 100% of those at risk of hoapitalisations and deaths so we’ll be fine

Children being unvaccinated isn’t an issue as hardly any kids have died inc those who are cev

Honestly don’t give a toss about varients as we’ve had months on end of scare tactics and not one has evaded the vaccine yet - inc the Indian one!

It was before you name changed, as you well know Carrie. Don’t be so disingenuous.

You said “it will kick off again” so I am asking what is your view on what should be done

That's almost word for word what people on here said last summer

You mean last summer, before there were vaccines?

I’m mean, it’s almost as though you deliberately name changed so you can’t get held to account to your previous false assertions.

BTW I did check the rules and there is nothing about calling out name changes. And I think it is quite valid to do so here. There are rules about posting deliberately inflammatory posts however, which seem to be your standard fare.

Were people really that shocked that there was a second wave over the winter? Did people really think that after the first March-June wave that would be it? There isn't really anything that the govt could have done to stop the second wave, which happened at the peak of winter when illnesses are already at an all time high. Yes, there may have been things they could have done to lessen the number of people who died and were hospitalised, but the second wave was inevitable really wasn't it? Especially if we wanted to keep business/the economy/society in any way afloat?

To be honest, since realising last March that this Covid thing is real and the shit was going to hit the fan, the only think that has happened that I wasn't expecting was the vaccination program going so amazingly well!

My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.

You may be right but then again.....maybe not. 🤔
It's just a wait and see situation.

So anyway, its great news that the model presented in the OP looks to be over-estimating the numbers of hospitalisation and deaths once we unlock fully, isn't it?

Hopefully a revised model can be issued with the more up to date data we now have.

Do you just... not get bored constantly posting about how we’re going to go into a 4th lockdown?

Like, genuinely. I can’t see how this is beneficial for you. If you’re convinced this is going to happen then that’s up to you, but I really can’t understand why you’re giving it so much headspace.

@CarrieAntoinette whatever happens the country can’t keep going into lockdowns we won’t survive the economy won’t - the vaccine protects the most vulnerable - they will protect against variants

@CarrieAntoinette

Vaccines make things easier for the government to implement an effective covid strategy because they do so much of the heavy lifting.

What is an effective Covid strategy though other than vaccines? Aren't they the main tool we have? Do you mean Zero Covid? It doesn't look like that is going to be attempted here and I don't know whether it would be possible in this country, or most countries of the world.

Corona Remoaner
noun

A person who wanks themselves dry over how clever they sound if they try to predict the next lockdown, and is secretly relieved they can hide behind their mask for some time yet

(see also: Laura Keuenssberg)

You're quite right, OP.

We're doomed.

(See also Capt Mainwaring's response.)