Will UK govt covid strategy stop another wave?

[CarrieAntoinette]

According to the last Warwick University modelling I've seen, numbers are due to start ticking upwards soon. (Graph below)

Do you think the current government covid strategy will prevent another wave like the last two?

And if so, how?

(My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.)

[quote BlueBlancmange]@CarrieAntoinette

Vaccines make things easier for the government to implement an effective covid strategy because they do so much of the heavy lifting.

What is an effective Covid strategy though other than vaccines? Aren't they the main tool we have? Do you mean Zero Covid? It doesn't look like that is going to be attempted here and I don't know whether it would be possible in this country, or most countries of the world.[/quote]
🦠 Best efforts to prevent importation of troublesome new variants. Effective quarantine policy.

🦠Best efforts to keep cases low to prevent creation of homegrown troublesome new variants.

🦠Best efforts to find potential clusters, test widely to find the rest of the cases, trace contacts (forward and back) effective Isolation policy, and support, so that people can isolate.

[quote CHiSOCG]@CarrieAntoinette whatever happens the country can’t keep going into lockdowns we won’t survive the economy won’t - the vaccine protects the most vulnerable - they will protect against variants[/quote]
Well lockdowns are the government's policy.

Mine is to get a grip of covid so we don't have to have them.

@PrivateJamesFrazer

You're quite right, OP.

We're doomed.

(See also Capt Mainwaring's response.)

Again, best to quote me if you want to suggest I've said something.

@TattyDevine

Corona Remoaner noun

A person who wanks themselves dry over how clever they sound if they try to predict the next lockdown, and is secretly relieved they can hide behind their mask for some time yet

(see also: Laura Keuenssberg)

@year5teacher

Do you just... not get bored constantly posting about how we’re going to go into a 4th lockdown?

Like, genuinely. I can’t see how this is beneficial for you. If you’re convinced this is going to happen then that’s up to you, but I really can’t understand why you’re giving it so much headspace.

I post for a few minutes a few times a week, some weeks. I just seem to make an impression.

@Myalternate

My view is that there'll be a honeymoon period where it all looks ok for a bit, and then it will kick off again, much like it has before.

You may be right but then again.....maybe not. 🤔
It's just a wait and see situation.

It is... but waiting and seeing is how we got intro trouble the first two times in January to March 2920, and August to November 2020.

It is... but waiting and seeing is how we got intro trouble the first two times in January to March 2920, and August to November 2020.

The major difference is that we have an effective vaccination programme now.

We need to look forward not constantly looking backwards at how things were. Think positively and not be quite so anxious. 🙂

@Bordois

So anyway, its great news that the model presented in the OP looks to be over-estimating the numbers of hospitalisation and deaths once we unlock fully, isn't it?

Hopefully a revised model can be issued with the more up to date data we now have.

The latest from Warwick assumes vaccination = complete protection.

Do you have anlinknto the source of that chart please

*A link to the source

I agree Bordois the most annoying parts of these things in threads is

1. the science - I mean what does that actually mean different studies say slightly different things and science is a huge area

2. blindly making statements without any back up

3. posting graphs with no context at all and no link

@Quartz2208

I agree Bordois the most annoying parts of these things in threads is

1. the science - I mean what does that actually mean different studies say slightly different things and science is a huge area

2. blindly making statements without any back up

3. posting graphs with no context at all and no link

I said it was the latest modelling from Warwick from a few days ago.

But here's a link:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/984533/S12299WarwickRoaddMapScenariossandSensitivityySteps33and4.pdf

My guess (and just that) is there will be at some point more cases, but that it will not lead to more in hospital or dying, given vaccination.

I think that post June 21st some restrictions should remain until all have been vaccinated, such as screens at tills, not 100% capacity at large events, and face coverings in most indoor places.

Oh OP,

How do you have so much time in your life to be so fixated on this?

I can’t say I’ve come across your posts before but it appears you’re well known for doom mongering threads/posts?

As has been said, we can’t stay in lockdown forever and Covid is not going anywhere. I disagree with various things Government have done but the vaccine rollout has been phenomenal and changes things a lot compared to where we were this time last year.

By all means stay in your house looking for graphs if that’s what brings you comfort, but you have to accept that life has to return to normal at some point, and that point is now, and you have to accept that you can’t stop it from happening and you need to step back.

Boris has indicated in parliament yesterday that all masks indoors and distancing will go june 21st

So providing severe disease doesn’t uptick masks etc will be gone

Boris et al have always made it clear that cases are not the issue but capacity and nhs impact. Chris witty confirmed that too.

Sage advice on covid but government look at al stats and balance it out. That’s why travel is allowed now - because affect of covid is now lower than the impact on all those families who either work in travel or who haven’t seen family members for a year.

In a bad flu year if you average flu deaths in uk it can be 20-40 per day. We are having half that for covid so we are clearly at the ‘acceptable level of deaths’ now

@newnortherner111

My guess (and just that) is there will be at some point more cases, but that it will not lead to more in hospital or dying, given vaccination.

I think that post June 21st some restrictions should remain until all have been vaccinated, such as screens at tills, not 100% capacity at large events, and face coverings in most indoor places.

The hospitalisation chart from the latest Warwick modelling assumes the vaccines provide complete protection, but the transmissibility of a new variant could still create a sizeable wave.

Wave or cases maybe but not hospitalisation

Ok so basically we are now looking at the Indian Variant (so the thread has moved on) and the impact that will have given that actually the modelling in the new one apart from that is actually pretty realistic.

I find you PrincessNutsNuts/CarrieAntoinette one of the most frustrating posters. Your tendency for hyperbole, crypticness and vagueness in your posts hides what could be actually a pertient and relevant discussion.

Which should be how can we use

🦠 Best efforts to prevent importation of troublesome new variants. Effective quarantine policy.

🦠Best efforts to keep cases low to prevent creation of homegrown troublesome new variants.

🦠Best efforts to find potential clusters, test widely to find the rest of the cases, trace contacts (forward and back) effective Isolation policy, and support, so that people can isolate.

these points to try and supress the indian variant while we still can in order to ensure that the roadmap still goes ahead given the current Warwick modelling (with the link) shows that its (potentially) increased transmissibility could cause a spike in hospital cases.

Coupled with a discussion of how much of a peak/wave are we prepared to accept in order for the roadmap to continue and again the modelling (indian variant aside) is very positive for that

@Watapalava

Wave or cases maybe but not hospitalisation

This is the hospital admissions chart from the new Warwick modelling. It assumes the vaccines convey full protection and he different size waves represent potentially higher transmissibility levels of potential new variants.

Tom Wenseleers thinks B1617.2 might be up to 60% more transmissible.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/14928946/covid-cases-rise-fear-indian-variant-spreads-faster-kent/amp/?utmsource=twitter&utmmmedium=social&utmcampaign=sharebarweb&twitterrimpression=true

Chart didn't load

that link also has witty saying its unlikely to evade vaccines so nothing to worry about really

@Watapalava

that link also has witty saying its unlikely to evade vaccines so nothing to worry about really

B117 doesn't evade vaccines either, but it's the reason 80,000 British people died in the second wave and the reason we've been in restrictions for 7 months.

Erm we have vaccines in our systems now tho

@Watapalava

Erm we have vaccines in our systems now tho

53.8% of us do.

28.3% have had both.

And 48% need a third in the autumn.

You’re forgetting the most important stat- we have Vaccinated almost 100% of those who died/needed treatment tho