To think it is inevitable we will see more lockdowns?

[NEVERQUIT3331]

inews.co.uk/news/politics/fourth-wave-of-covid-19-is-inevitable-because-vaccines-cant-prevent-all-deaths-chris-whitty-says-905347

Vaccines will definitely reduce hospital admissions and deaths. But when do you think we will reach a point where we never go back to a lockdown?

When this one finishes.

Of course we can’t prevent all deaths. We never could before we even knew about covid. It’s about the pressure on the health service, not preventing everyone and his dog from becoming ill.

I think there will likely be some kind of restrictions over this autumn/winter - and frankly until we're into at least May and summer may supruess it somewhat, things are fragile and vulnerable to new variants etc. I don't necessarily disagree with the way the gov is reopening things, but Johnson was foolish to say there'd be no going back to lockdowns, I think we have at least one more winter where we'll have to be extra careful.

But of course. You only have to see the attitudes of people on here... Last few months everyone was saying 'we just need to be patient, it'll only be a short while until we have vaccines and then we can get back to normal'... And now the attitude is shifting towards mandatory vaccines for all including children, and regular boosters, perhaps as frequent as every six months, policed by facial recognition vaccine passports to go about your daily lives. All cheered on by the 'whatever it takes' brigade...

The government has just extended its Covid powers for another six months. That will take us up to September, and I am sure that, soon after, the medical advisers who regularly stand beside the Prime Minister will warn us of an imminent flu epidemic - leading to a further six-month extension of these powers (as a precaution, of course).

After that, I suspect more Covid-19 variants will be discovered, requiring another six months. Soon enough we will have reached the winter of 2022 – and so it will continue.

I wonder how much longer it will take for those who support the restrictions to change their tune?

Tbh not sure which is the point of trying to predict what will happen in 2-3-4-5 months , when we don’t even know what will happen next week. And raising these kind of predictions can only cause self anxiety or anxiety to others

Maybe by 2023. I think there will be more lockdowns as everything eases and people flock back to crowded places and travel commences. Variants will emerge and boosters will be needed which take time to make and distribute. Children aren’t vaccinated so we still have huge sections unvaccinated.

I think there will be restrictions again, but not a lockdown/stay at home order like now

@SmidgenofaPigeon

When this one finishes.

Of course we can’t prevent all deaths. We never could before we even knew about covid. It’s about the pressure on the health service, not preventing everyone and his dog from becoming ill.

Figures for Scotland, inpatients...

2015 – April to June – 267,347
2016 – April to June – 274,635
2017 – April to June – 265,295
2018 – April to June – 268,200
2019 – April to June – 274,133
2020 – April to June – 141,761

I wonder what will have happened to those 130,000 odd people who usually require inpatient treatment?

@Echobelly

I think there will likely be some kind of restrictions over this autumn/winter - and frankly until we're into at least May and summer may supruess it somewhat, things are fragile and vulnerable to new variants etc. I don't necessarily disagree with the way the gov is reopening things, but Johnson was foolish to say there'd be no going back to lockdowns, I think we have at least one more winter where we'll have to be extra careful.

Yeah I think this winter again to probably catch up on any new variants then we might be OK to just go back to normal and get an annual covid jab like we do flu.

And yeah boris was a tad hasty to claim there will never be a lockdown again. But he's never been the brightest.

@kellehi

But of course. You only have to see the attitudes of people on here... Last few months everyone was saying 'we just need to be patient, it'll only be a short while until we have vaccines and then we can get back to normal'... And now the attitude is shifting towards mandatory vaccines for all including children, and regular boosters, perhaps as frequent as every six months, policed by facial recognition vaccine passports to go about your daily lives. All cheered on by the 'whatever it takes' brigade...

The government has just extended its Covid powers for another six months. That will take us up to September, and I am sure that, soon after, the medical advisers who regularly stand beside the Prime Minister will warn us of an imminent flu epidemic - leading to a further six-month extension of these powers (as a precaution, of course).

After that, I suspect more Covid-19 variants will be discovered, requiring another six months. Soon enough we will have reached the winter of 2022 – and so it will continue.

I wonder how much longer it will take for those who support the restrictions to change their tune?

Couldnt agree more with this . I think from what being said and done the unspoken message is that's what they intend . Its not about a virus anymore i think . But to see how compliant we are and how we can be controlled which is all too easily!

I'm an expat and simply cannot do another year of seeing no family at all. I haven't see anyone since 2019.

There are loads of us in the UK and it's not sustainable for us. There has got to be a way found for people to see family again.

I think there will be much more testing instead.

They’ve tested a concert in Spain. All the people who went were tested. Those who nested negative were refunded. The ticket price included a mask, ticket and test price.

Here www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/28/5000-attend-rock-concert-in-barcelona-after-covid-19-screening

Honestly I think this is it. Lockdowns are to prevent pressure on the nhs and to ensure the nhs is not breached. I think people forget that. It is not to eliminate Covid.

With that in mind, I think the vaccine program will manage the nhs pressure at an acceptable level and this is the last lockdown.

I thought it was a third wave that was inevitable? Now we're talking fourth waves. I'm struggling to see how people are going to continue to comply with the ever changing goalposts and mixed messages and I don't believe there can be another lockdown. We cannot continue to trash the economy, thousands more businesses got to the wall and the education of children and young people continue to suffer. We have to find ways of living its covid now.

There might be,but I won’t be complying.

I think we're in a better position than we were last time we all came out of lockdown as so many people are now vaccinated whereas they weren't before.
Don't see the point in speculating and worrying about whether might or might not be more lockdowns in future, let us get out of this one first lol!

There must never ever be another lockdown - covid or no covid.

More than half of mumsnet would be happy to be locked down forever...

As long as you still get your furlough pay, or you didn't lose your job and are working from home, or you work in the public sector and you are still on full pay for doing a much reduced workload than usual...

Of course this is a generalisation, many such as nurses are working very hard, but there are many, particularly in the civil service and local authorities twiddling their thumbs on full pay, but why wouldn't you be happy about that?

You can still get your shopping in with a once a week supermarket trip whilst all the staff there are slaving away wearing masks for a full eight hour shift, and you get to stay home and stay with the family, and get paid for it.

When the government ends the furlough payments, and everyone either has a choice of going back to work or having to get universal credit because their employer isn't able to keep paying them with taxpayer money anymore, that is when everyone here will stop supporting the lockdowns, if there is one.

But whilst the government is still printing the money, and SAGE's behavioural scientists are still turning the 'increase the sense of personal threat' screw, everyone will be lapping it up, and periodically come on here to say 'It's just another few months and then we'll be back to normal...

@PicsInRed

I'm an expat and simply cannot do another year of seeing no family at all. I haven't see anyone since 2019.

There are loads of us in the UK and it's not sustainable for us. There has got to be a way found for people to see family again.

Just because my family live in the uk, doesn't mean I have been able to see them. None of my family live nearby. I went to the different places they live once in the summer, that's it. I had everything planned (including accommodation booked) to see them over the Christmas, but then the government cancelled the Christmas easing of the rules.

I miss my family. But it is just the way it is.

I imagine we'll have a fairly clear summer as we did last year, then into another lockdown or at least some restrictions in the winter. I don't think this will be our last lockdown but I hope the next one is only for precautions and they lock us down early enough unlike all 3 lockdowns which have only come after massive numbers of fatalities with very loose rules.

I wonder if it'll come to a point they do another firebreak lockdown where we have 2-3 weeks with no schools, nurseries, unessential work etc.

Bill Gates reckons it will all be over by the end of 2022. Anything else is just speculation and false hope.

@Bluntness100

Honestly I think this is it. Lockdowns are to prevent pressure on the nhs and to ensure the nhs is not breached. I think people forget that. It is not to eliminate Covid.

With that in mind, I think the vaccine program will manage the nhs pressure at an acceptable level and this is the last lockdown.

Agree. The Conservatives don't exactly love handing out 80% of wages, millions in extra UC and JSA, and losing all the retail and leisure taxes.

[quote ArseInTheCoOpWindow]I think there will be much more testing instead.

They’ve tested a concert in Spain. All the people who went were tested. Those who nested negative were refunded. The ticket price included a mask, ticket and test price.

Here www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/28/5000-attend-rock-concert-in-barcelona-after-covid-19-screening[/quote]
The more healthy people you test, the more cases you will find. The more cases you find, the more you will have Hancock/Whitty/Boris banging the lockdown drums....

What was the point in doing vaccinations if they're just going to make everyone get tested forever?

@SplendidSuns1000

I imagine we'll have a fairly clear summer as we did last year, then into another lockdown or at least some restrictions in the winter. I don't think this will be our last lockdown but I hope the next one is only for precautions and they lock us down early enough unlike all 3 lockdowns which have only come after massive numbers of fatalities with very loose rules.

I wonder if it'll come to a point they do another firebreak lockdown where we have 2-3 weeks with no schools, nurseries, unessential work etc.

I think this is an example Of people forgetting lock down is only to prevent the nhs being breached. The only way there would be another lock down is if this virus mutates in such a way that it becomes something so different vaccines can’t mitigate it, so basically a second and different pandemic, the odds of that are so low as to be basically non existent.

Even without medicines as they are today pandemics historically never really lasted more than two years, so it’s highly unlikely this one would differ and be worse.

I think this will be the last national one, we may see regional ones on future. I certainly wont stick to another one. I am utterly sick of the goalposts changing. We cannot all just exist, rather than live, indefinitely. Covid does not trump everything else.