To think it is inevitable we will see more lockdowns?

[NEVERQUIT3331]

inews.co.uk/news/politics/fourth-wave-of-covid-19-is-inevitable-because-vaccines-cant-prevent-all-deaths-chris-whitty-says-905347

Vaccines will definitely reduce hospital admissions and deaths. But when do you think we will reach a point where we never go back to a lockdown?

@FilthyforFirth

I think this will be the last national one, we may see regional ones on future. I certainly wont stick to another one. I am utterly sick of the goalposts changing. We cannot all just exist, rather than live, indefinitely. Covid does not trump everything else.

Oh it does.. Had a national minute's silence for all the Covid dead on the anniversary, you see...

The 64,000 that died of flu in the previous year? Not even worth mentioning...

Probably at least this winter if not more. Jonson was stupid to say it, but could just bluster. One way around promises is national lockdown by default- give power to local areas to lockdown. If they all happen to lockdown at the same time it still wasn’t national lockdown.

Based on case numbers, deaths, and the hospital admission numbers I don't think we'll go back into full lockdown and this will be the last one. Masks, distancing, reduced capacity at venues, etc will probably continue for the foreseeable future until an even larger chunk of the population is vaccinated but their use will be relaxed over the next few months before being more or less done away with completely. If we get a lot of new variants or a surge in case numbers, e.g., during the winter virus season, then I can see there being a light-handed return to some of the restrictions such as masks in public spaces but not a full lockdown.

By winter 2022 we'll all be back to normal, Jo masks, no restrictions. You might find that if there is a localised outbreak such as in a particular care home or hospital, then there will be deep cleaning and no visitors until it clears, much like they currently do with outbreaks of norovirus.

By next winter, and certainly the one after, we'll start seeing the second generation of coronavirus vaccines and when you go for your annual flu jab you'll get flu in one arm and covid in the other, eventually they'll both be in the same syringe and you'll get one jab for both. Within a year or two it'll be the case that the vulnerable and healthcare workers are offered an annual covid jab at their GP or the pharmacy exactly like flu jabs and anyone who doesn't qualify for it free can pay £8-£10 to have it done also exactly like the flu jab currently is. Covid will end up being thought of in the same way as flu and instead of October to February being known as flu season it'll be known as covid and flu season with the same basic advice we have now for flu - get vaccinated, practice good hygiene, if you get ill then stay home/drink fluids/rest, seek medical advice as needed.

All the people doom-mongering that we'll be in lockdown forever more and this is the government priming us for long term control seem to forget that we've done this all before. There have been pandemics throughout history, both ancient and modern, with various restrictions imposed centrally and locally. Those restrictions don't last forever and sooner or later normal life resumes.

you work in the public sector and you are still on full pay for doing a much reduced workload than usual...

This is pure bullshit. Every public sector worker I know, including DH, is still carrying a full workload.

I don't think it is inevitable. However it is possible and I think it is childish to pretend otherwise.

There is so much more we could be doing now to make this winter better and therefore more secure - but we have a shit PM and a shit government.

This will continue for years to come. There's no way back.

@kellehi

But of course. You only have to see the attitudes of people on here... Last few months everyone was saying 'we just need to be patient, it'll only be a short while until we have vaccines and then we can get back to normal'... And now the attitude is shifting towards mandatory vaccines for all including children, and regular boosters, perhaps as frequent as every six months, policed by facial recognition vaccine passports to go about your daily lives. All cheered on by the 'whatever it takes' brigade...

The government has just extended its Covid powers for another six months. That will take us up to September, and I am sure that, soon after, the medical advisers who regularly stand beside the Prime Minister will warn us of an imminent flu epidemic - leading to a further six-month extension of these powers (as a precaution, of course).

After that, I suspect more Covid-19 variants will be discovered, requiring another six months. Soon enough we will have reached the winter of 2022 – and so it will continue.

I wonder how much longer it will take for those who support the restrictions to change their tune?

They didnt extend it - the Coronavirus Act 2020 was brought in with an expiry date of 2 years from inactment. It was a yearly review designed to see where we were. Not that I am entirely sure many were aware of that including MPs. Its job is to allow the government to cope with the demands that coronavirus places. In September the review will pass again. The interesting time will be when it actually expires in March 20022

Plus lockdown powers tend to be under the 1984 Public Health Act - the next set of those come into force tomorrow and run out on the 30th June 2021. So tthey are much shorter, expire and need another to come into force.

Coronavirus is going to remain a disease that people die from forever (even it is does become milder by Grandad had a common cold which led to pneumonia and death) - it is that I think that needs to be accepted that for those of us in our 40s (like me) a certain proportion of us in 40 years time will die of Coronavirus, same as flu etc.

I think as well we may have cluster lockdown based on areas if there is a large outbreak

I think even if there are more lockdowns, a lot of people won't bother with them. I've watched people party, visit friends and relatives and not give a shit for a year now and none of them have had covid. I don't know a single person who's had it.

It does make me wonder why I bothered and I've spoken to a few people who feel the same way. After these rules ease they have no interest going back to them.

I don't know a single person who's had it.

Then you've been very lucky, I know lots of people who have had it and four who have died from it including two who were under the age of 40 and had no underlying health conditions.

Lockdowns in the U.K.? I think we’re done with them now. At least, because of COVID-19. The vaccine uptake in the vulnerable categories has been incredible and so the likelihood of the NHS being overwhelmed is very low.

I’ve seen some of the worst that this pandemic has caused in England and really do believe we are coming out of it. Many will still die but those deaths will be spread out enough for us to cope. Hopefully the vast majority in the remaining categories will have the vaccine and bring down the death rate.

30million people have now been vaccinated, many have had the virus. There's an awful lot of immunity in the community now. Another lockdown is highly unlikely.

"They’ve tested a concert in Spain. All the people who went were tested. Those who nested negative were refunded. The ticket price included a mask, ticket and test price."
This makes no sense, why were those who tested negative refunded? Presumably those who tested positive weren't allowed to attend but still had to pay?!

I do wonder how much public support there will be if another lockdown is needed in the autumn or winter :/
I think a lot of people are happily sticking to the rules this time round because there appears to be light at the end of the tunnel with the ‘roadmap’ and all the vaccinating. I think there’s the ‘just a few more months and it will all be worth it’ mindset in a lot of people.

If it all starts going wrong again then I’m not sure how people will react or behave, baring in mind it will be nearly 2 years on this winter, potentially there will be a lot of refusal to comply, protests and even civil unrest.

@SlugsTrout

This will continue for years to come. There's no way back.

Not with lockdowns though which is more the point of this thread really. We will still have covid around certainly, but we won't be in lockdown each year.

I hope the more positive people are right and this is the last one, but I'm still thinking one more winter one may be necessary then its over.

Boris never actually claimed there would be no more lockdowns,he said something like he hoped this would be the last one but he couldn't promise anything .

I bloody well hope not!

Tbh i think covid is here to stay, and we need to compare it to flu. Now we have the vaccine, I think that (bare minimum) elderly, clinically vulnerable and front line health and care staff should be offered it annually. Fingers crossed that will be enough that the NHS is not overwhelmed like it has been.

We can't go on like this, for the sake of the economy and peoples mental health.

@StealthPolarBear

"They’ve tested a concert in Spain. All the people who went were tested. Those who nested negative were refunded. The ticket price included a mask, ticket and test price." This makes no sense, why were those who tested negative refunded? Presumably those who tested positive weren't allowed to attend but still had to pay?!

Yeah it would make more sense if those who tested positive were refunded on the grounds they could no longer go?

More than half of mumsnet would be happy to be locked down forever... As long as you still get your furlough pay, or you didn't lose your job and are working from home, or you work in the public sector and you are still on full pay for doing a much reduced workload than usual...

I'm in the public sector, and I wish to God we were on full pay for doing a much reduced workload. But it's actually much increased.

That said I've had it now. It's rather easy for a PM who wants to ban human rights such as protest to claim that there some reason that human rights don't matter. Or for scientists who nobody even knew existed to be raising losing their place in the spotlight. I never thought I'd say it, but the next lockdown they announce, I am putting my home on the market and leaving the UK. Its going to hell in a handbasket anyway, and I'm increasingly unable to think of a single train to stay.

I think we just need to accept that it will be a part of our lives and people will die from it.

@FilthyforFirth

I think this will be the last national one, we may see regional ones on future. I certainly wont stick to another one. I am utterly sick of the goalposts changing. We cannot all just exist, rather than live, indefinitely. Covid does not trump everything else.

This! They can call another lock down if they want, but I sure as hell won't comply.

Once we are at the stage where the NHS is coping, lockdowns can fuck off.

We must be heading for 70% immunity now, between vaccine and natural immunity. By late summer this will be 80%. I don't see any justification for another lockdown. To be honest I am at a point where I think we need to start letting people make their own decisions. There are more adverse effects caused by lockdown than the virus.

Maybe when lockdowns aren't the solution? But then again it really depends on their political agenda so who knows.

I’m not being locked up again. Once the impact on other illnesses, mental health, unemployment and the economy is known in full I’d imagine there would be very little support for any more. Those still fearful of Covid can stay home but life needs to get back to normal quickly for the rest of us.

Argh part of my post disappeared.
'Maybe when governments realise lockdowns aren't the solution?'.

There must never ever be another lockdown - covid or no covid.

What do you propose should happen should it mutate and start killing people in the numbers it has previously or greater?

Obviously it's really not desirable but nobody can predict how this is going to play out. With luck, it will mutate to become less deadly, like lots of other viruses have but who knows?

Would anyone really advocate continuing as normal and allowing thousands to die for lack of medical resources?