Some restrictions likely next winter to protect unvaccinated?

[Kokeshi123]

www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/19062056.social-distancing-continue-next-spring-expert-warns-vaccines-will-not-stop-coronavirus-cases/
www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/19062056.social-distancing-continue-next-spring-expert-warns-vaccines-will-not-stop-coronavirus-cases/

The emphasis in these discussions by Dr Hunter suggests "some" restrictions next winter--most likely not a strict lockdown. The concern here is that we may continue to see some outbreaks among the unvaccinated. Just wondering how much appetite there is likely to be for this. I find it hard to muster much motivation about protecting those who have chosen to refuse the vaccine. On the other hand, we have to consider those who are not able to have the vaccine and may be made very ill from it.

i guess the new strains may be a problem.
but i also heard something very concerning; that owners of care homes are going to keep visiting restrictions in place indefinitely even for residents who are fully vaccinated and their visitors fully vaccinated, in order to protect careworkers who refuse to be vaccinated. cart before horse, i think.
it was a caller to sheila fogarty on lbc, on tuesday last, about 2pm. this person said she had inside information but could not reveal her source. she was getting up a campaign about it.

I saw a couple of carehome workers being interviewed on some news programme about a week ago and they were saying they didn't want to be vaccinated and would refuse to be forced to do so.
I have an older sister in a carehome. We as a family can't visit her, for example.
I'd work there myself if I could see her for free and take the vaccine. My family are bereft.
Don't know where we can take this.

The concern here is that we may continue to see some outbreaks among the unvaccinated.

I think this is more about the groups who cannot be vaccinated at this time? Children for, those with medical conditions that mean it's contraindicated, etc?

Is the aim of the government to vaccinate everyone? I haven't heard anything about children and teenagers. While there is a large cohort that mix significantly (kids at school), there will always be this virus circulating that can pass it on. Also new arrivals from counties with poor vaccination programs (likely because the rich countries bought them up first). I think it will take years for herd immunity to be fully achieved or for the virus to mutate into a much weaker form. In that case, the government or society has to make a decision about how much risk it will accept.

Really wish they would get on with vaccinating children. I understand that some (vulnerable) kids have already been vaccinated with no apparent problems. It would remove a significant source of the dilemma.

Whitty did mention the possibility of some restrictions next winter.

It's very difficult. We have a large population and it's physically impossible to vaccinate everyone in a short time (especially as 2 doses are needed). So this gives the virus time to mutate and potentially start to evade the vaccines so they become less effective.

Plus the WHO's idea of sharing vaccines with other countries so that their vulnerable people can be vaccinated, whilst our younger, healthier folk wait longer to get a vaccine dose. This will potentially delay herd immunity and so yes, I do think restrictions next winter are very likely.

I don't know about coronavirus, but I am struck by how low the flu rates are this year. I would definitely consider wearing masks, extra hand-washing, etc if it might prevent flu.

They are saying that every adult in the UK who wants to be vaccinated could be vaccinated with 2 doses by end of August if there is sufficient supply.

The UK government is refusing to give our vaccines to other nations until this happens regardless of what WHO says. This is because those in hospital who survive are under 60 with more than expected under 50.

They also will not be vaccinating children routinely as the vaccines are not authorised for that.

I think that the WHO advice is not to vaccinate under 16s.

Depends what they mean by "some restrictions". Masks in shops and social distancing from strangers wouldnt really be a big deal. Not being able to work or see friends and family, would be a problem for many.

Also if they find that the vaccines reduce transmission significantly, then fewer restrictions would be needed.

@Kokeshi123

Really wish they would get on with vaccinating children. I understand that some (vulnerable) kids have already been vaccinated with no apparent problems. It would remove a significant source of the dilemma.

I wouldn’t allow my child to be vaccinated and I don’t think the uptake would be high at all.

@PatchworkElmer

I think that the WHO advice is not to vaccinate under 16s.

Yes I think there are some theories that catching it in childhood can confer a lifelong immunity or at least to a level which means catching it in adulthood will be less serious. This is what happens with other coronaviruses - we get colds mildly as a child and while we do not have full immunity, we get colds as an adult and they're very rarely serious. If someone had never ever had a cold and caught one as an adult, it would be serious - this was seen when colds were passed by travellers to indigenous communities.

I also think this is a concern if we lock children away for too long that they won't catch these common childhood illnesses like cold and chicken pox and then be far more susceptible for them in later life. My baby is 10 months and never had a cold - that's not normal.

They aren't vaccinating under-16s because the testing of the vaccine on them hasn't been completed.

Of course there will be
And for foreseeable
We have lost our heads over this

Assuming you’ve all read it, it’s talking about wearing masks still, unlikely to be mass gatherings and an increased drive for areas where people don’t want to be vaccinated to encourage them to be vaccinated and possibly asking those not vaccinated to stay in. He also says it will not be as bad next winter.

This is also just one persons opinion, the government will have to look at how it will impact the economy, they won’t just be listening to one scientist.

Sorry me again, he also said it is likely next year will be a full academic year for schools.

The vaccination program its 'job and done'. Research will continue to refine and develop vaccines just like they do every year for seasonal flu. The current approved vaccines as 1 dose + booster will be improved to a single dose, or a combined dose with flu vaccine etc etc.

We will have some degree of herd immunity, with many more people having had the vaccine than not.

Safety Controls such as mask wearing, limited or no large public gatherings gatherings, hand washing can continue even while the vaccine program continues. People need to get used to the fact that there is no magic wand to resolve the pandemic and get back to the old normal, it will be a constant ongoing public health concern that will need some cautious measures to continue to be taken.

The vaccination program its 'job and done'.

= The vaccination program is not 'job and done'.

@alexdgr8

i guess the new strains may be a problem. but i also heard something very concerning; that owners of care homes are going to keep visiting restrictions in place indefinitely even for residents who are fully vaccinated and their visitors fully vaccinated, in order to protect careworkers who refuse to be vaccinated. cart before horse, i think. it was a caller to sheila fogarty on lbc, on tuesday last, about 2pm. this person said she had inside information but could not reveal her source. she was getting up a campaign about it.

@alexdgr8 I may sound harsh but surely care home workers and health workers who refuse to be vaccinated should not be allowed to do these jobs? As they endanger others. It should be a prerequisite.

It's a different story of course if someone can't be vaccinated because of health issues

Yes, this has been said for some time now, including by Whitty/Vallance/JVT

Large gatherings may be restricted for some considerable time, and I think masks and space will be standard. The extent of restrictions will depend on how many cases there are, and how full the NHS is.

Best case is that the restrictions stay as they did at around, say last summer, with rule of 6 type arrangements and some hospitality open, and a functioning Christmas concession. Worst case is that new variants escape the vaccine (and wild immunity from other variants) and the world is back to square one.

Or perhaps that should be one and a half - as updating a vaccine should take no more than 6 months (and could well be as little as half that)

I'm fully expecting restrictions next winter. Ideally a long school Xmas holiday in the middle of it. The thing will mutate again if we aren't careful and our government haven't been careful once so far.

I may sound harsh but surely care home workers and health workers who refuse to be vaccinated should not be allowed to do these jobs? As they endanger others. It should be a prerequisite

People's work might be changed on the basis of an actual occupational health requirement, moving people to other lower-risk duties. There is unlikely to be a blanket ban across a whole organisation.

It's a different story of course if someone can't be vaccinated because of health issue

When the reason is rooted in OH and the care of the most vulnerable, the reason for not having the vaccination will not be a factor, because the result is still the person poses too much risk. Reasonable adjustment does not include posing a risk of serious illness or death to vulnerable people. When the inability to do you role arises, and that is for medical reasons (such as inability to have a specific vaccine) then that person should be prioritised for other roles, or if none then medically managed out.

@Kokeshi123

Really wish they would get on with vaccinating children. I understand that some (vulnerable) kids have already been vaccinated with no apparent problems. It would remove a significant source of the dilemma.

Stop stop stop.

Children must receive a properly tested and approved vaccine.

You will.create chaos if you push something through in a dodgy way - many will refuse.

Patience is a virtue... We will get there.

We didn't elect Whitty or his cohorts
Hopefully the government will take advice from other quarters before the economy is down the path of no return if it isn't already