Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Just checking in, thank you for taking over the thread starting duties

The table of cases in each council in England is updated with today's data release on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage.

Click the county column to sort by county to quickly see the situation across all councils in your county.

I have also updated the following today with the latest nhs data release:

Cases in Hospital:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-cases/

Daily Hospital Admissions: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

Patients in Ventilation Beds:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-ventilation/

Looks like daily admissions have turned a corner which is great news. Hopefully will help lower cases in hospital soon.

keeping this thread going is starting to resemble the Olympic torch relay :)

Thanks for the new thread. The cases in our area have fallen quite significantly now and I am feeling more hopeful.

I am concerned if they are using lfts as part of the testing numbers. There was a article in the TES last week where out of 2400 teachers tested only 3 came back with positive results. Statistically that seems nigh on impossible. I have been helping in my school’s test centre and we are testing approximately half of the entire school workforce every week, moving to twice a week from Monday.

The dashboard splits the testing numbers into LFT and PCR.

For England, the PCR positivity rate has been slowly going down (from about 18% at year end to 12.7% for the 7 day period ending 23/1) which suggests there is not an issue with the PCR test supply/uptake.

The problem may arise if people with symptoms start substituting PCR with LFT but the declining PCR positivity trend does not seem to indicate it is happening (yet?).

50% increase in the number of councils with rate below 100 per 100,000.

Screams headline.

So a grand total of 3 council areas. Torridge dropped below 50 per 100,000.
At the other end though highest rate just over 800 now, and 49 areas still over 500, well over 150 councils over that level though a couple of weeks back.

London showing a 30% fall compared with the prior 7 days; South East almost 28%; East 25%, North West 24%. Single digits though for Yorks Humber at 6% fall and East Midlands at 8%.

The bulk of east mids councils 32 out of 40 showing week on week declines not as good as the average for England, although only 9 increasing. Although that’s almost half of the current number of increasing case councils in England. Maybe something in the latest React study? Although caught a bit of Tim Spector who I think from half listening indicated Zoe not seeing an upward movement there. That last bit needs corroboration

What’s going on in Bassetlaw? Big rise but seemingly focused in one MSOA , Ranskill, Everton and Gringley. Which rolls of the tongue.

Prison location?

Or after some of yesterday evening’s post an illicit teaching convention? :)

Also LFT may be useful for testing people with unusual symptoms.

My friend tested positive over Christmas with headache and dizziness. She is one of the most law abiding people I know but this time she was going to ignore the Tier 4 rules and spend Christmas Day with her parents. She took the LFT test on Christmas Eve.

It came back positive. Christmas Day gathering was cancelled. My friend passed COVID to the rest of her family (so she would have been a potential spreader) but not her older parents.

@wintertravel1980

The dashboard splits the testing numbers into LFT and PCR.

For England, the PCR positivity rate has been slowly going down (from about 18% at year end to 12.7% for the 7 day period ending 23/1) which suggests there is not an issue with the PCR test supply/uptake.

The problem may arise if people with symptoms start substituting PCR with LFT but the declining PCR positivity trend does not seem to indicate it is happening (yet?).

The “about the data” doesn’t seem to say but presumably PCR positivity covers both pillar 1 and 2 tests? Whereas LFs are just pillar 2 if I’m reading the detailed about the data section correctly.

Thanks for the thread. A question: we’re told that asymptomatic people with Covid are less likely to spread infection. But we also know that some asymptomatic people have a heavy enough viral load to test positive on lateral flow tests, so presumably they have a heavy enough viral load to spread it. Additionally, early on in the pandemic there was talk of asymptomatic superspreaders.

How do we know that asymptotic people are less likely to infect others?
It seems like common sense, but is it actually true?

@boys3 - yes, a prison -

www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/covid-outbreak-hmp-ranby-leads-4929823

"Nottinghamshire County Council's consultant in public health, Dawn Jenkin, said roughly one-third of all cases in Bassetlaw (of which there were 167 in the seven days to January 20) were related to an outbreak at the prison."

@borntobequiet - All asymptomatic are not created equal. Some have very high viral load and others very low. It's not hugely predictable, or at least people don't really know why, but there are a mix of some superspreaders and lots of people who transmit to nobody or just one person.
It's possible I've missed some useful research on this, everything useful seemed to be pre-July last year and wound up as "not sure why".

I haven't found anyone negative, so I'd say that's slightly subjective, esp when talking about a global pandemic! Can't see anything wrong with the OP?

Anyway - I've just realised you need to go into your Local Authority or Nation data on the 'testing' dashboard to see LFT numbers - doh. I knew this was where the positivity rates were but not the test type.

It's not that I'm worried about additional LFT but that if we can 'really' only count PCR as the proper test then the numbers of these are potentially dropping?
In my area they have opened up LFTs for basically whoever wants them, so loads of people are tootling off to get a nice reassuring negative which is never followed up with a PCR.

.

Thanks Sun

I don't think the OP is relevant, we all just keep it going. I nearly started the thr ead, but thought it would be a bit odd if I never posted again. I've been reading it every day since March, it's existence is bigger than who starts the threads.

But thanks Sun for starting this one! Did not mean you personally were irrelevant!

So in principle lateral flow tests are additional, being available to people to get tested routinely without symptoms, so who wouldn't otherwise be tested. The only worry would be if people with unusual symptoms (or even mild recognised symptoms - eg slight fever) can access LF tests so use those when they might otherwise have gone for a PCR test. But I do think that's an issue that likely to be outweighed by the benefits they being of testing more people and identifying some potential asymptomatic spreaders.

@FATEdestiny

I was really hoping for a different OP in this thread. The incessantly negative tone is not conducive to rational data analysis in my view.

Maybe next time.

What the f** is your problem??? This has been the OP for ages! You can't be bothered to do a new thread, but show up to mock me personally for copy/paste? Or just having my name at the top really bothers you?

@schimmelreiter

But thanks Sun for starting this one! Did not mean you personally were irrelevant!

today it seems I am. I'll live :) thx though

@Firefliess

So in principle lateral flow tests are additional, being available to people to get tested routinely without symptoms, so who wouldn't otherwise be tested. The only worry would be if people with unusual symptoms (or even mild recognised symptoms - eg slight fever) can access LF tests so use those when they might otherwise have gone for a PCR test. But I do think that's an issue that likely to be outweighed by the benefits they being of testing more people and identifying some potential asymptomatic spreaders.

I'm just guessing here... if you go into a testing site you get tested with pcr. Lfts are (guessing) being distributed centrally. Is there some data on where it goes to? Eg 1200 tests sent to School W; 1600 to CareHomeX, 300 to GP1... ? And then a breakdown of how many have been used and what the positivity rate is?

Actually an interesting study would be exactly what you asked about unusual symptoms - ask all lft test takers as to why? and then see what pops out.

@schimmelreiter

I don't think the OP is relevant, we all just keep it going. I nearly started the thr ead, but thought it would be a bit odd if I never posted again. I've been reading it every day since March, it's existence is bigger than who starts the threads.

I've started 2/3 threads and rarely post, but have been an avid reader since their creation so didn't want them to disappear.

I think there's some confusion between the different meanings of OP: poster/post