Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

[quote Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum]www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55983453[/quote]
Thanks

It sounds very positive to me.

Keep going with vaccination and hopefully see this benefit and reduced restrictions

BBC reporting 146 known cases of SA variant so far found, don't know up to what date that was. Guess we'll be waiting another 7-14 days for the proper stats from the surge testing, if it takes 7-10 to sequence a result which you've used a PCR test to identify as positive first (R4 interview this morning)

Fauci interviewed for Vaccinate the World today, only caught a bit of it but he said when people ask him which vaccine they should have, his answer is "Whichever one you're being offered, take it quick!"

Briefing this evening is Hancock on the variant.

A NERVTAG member has said the alarmist reporting on the tiny study re AZ vaccine is ridiculous.
(Source: BBC news website current LIVE feed re Covid)

[quote lurker101]@CrackOpenTheGin everyone I know that has got the vaccine has known at appointment booking what vaccine they were getting, so there would be no need to turn up and refuse, they could just “miss their turn” and hope to get their preferred option at a later date, though I personally would be happy with any of the MHRA-approved vaccines.[/quote]
At the hub where my DH had his vaccination you didn't find out until you booked in on the day.

The thing that strikes me in that article is that it takes 7 to 10 days to determine whether a positive case was down to the B1351. So that means there isn’t really an opportunity to really treat those cases any differently to others in terms of contact tracing. So is the rational of surge testing simply to identify more asymptomatic cases which may or may not be B1351 and reduce spread that way?

Anyone know more about the number of people identified with the “U.K. variant” which acquired the E418K mutation??

@ATieLikeRichardGere

The thing that strikes me in that article is that it takes 7 to 10 days to determine whether a positive case was down to the B1351. So that means there isn’t really an opportunity to really treat those cases any differently to others in terms of contact tracing. So is the rational of surge testing simply to identify more asymptomatic cases which may or may not be B1351 and reduce spread that way?

Surely it's just to count them (new variant cases) at the moment, see how many cases we might have (ignoring the fact it will have "escaped" from those areas of course!)

2 doses of Pfizer still appear to work for the South African variant (or other variants with the E418K mutation). It is an engineered experiment rather than a proper RCT but its outcome should be pretty reliable:

www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01270-4

@ATieLikeRichardGere I guess if they can successfully and quickly fully detect cases in areas that may have the variant then they can isolate those cases rapidly and reduce spread (of either variant). It must be a near impossibility to do that nationally so they are targeting areas to cap the spread ?

Relevant to the surge testing Woking had around 4 times as many pillar two PCR tests in the week to 5 Feb as compared with the previous 7 days. A single figure number of LSOAs make up around three quarters of those tests, with just over 100 cases confirmed, with a positivity of 1.5% overall. Which surprised me a bit as I thought more asymptomatic cases might have been picked up with that number of tests, and remembering these are PCR not LFs. Not directly related but Woking had around 4K LFTs in the same period with one hand being sufficient to count the number of positives.

In good news they have finally started openly encouraging over-70s and CEV to use the booking website and have taken down the big and misleading warning on it about needing a letter!

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/08/nhs-asks-over-70s-in-england-to-book-covid-vaccine-appointment

Place your bets: when do you think we’ll see figures under 10k. I’m going for the 21st of feb

Does anyone else keep an eye on the ZOE estimated figures? Mine don’t seem to have updated since Saturday (est 18, 180 daily cases est 353 380 active cases), there’s only just been a change to my local area estimate

Place your bets: when do you think we’ll see figures under 10k.

For the first time? Will be slightly optimistic and go for next Tuesday - Feb 16. Tuesday is always the lowest day of the week for positive cases. I feel we can just get there if the current trend continues.

The numbers will go back to over 10k on Wed-Fri (Feb 17-19).

Does anyone else keep an eye on the ZOE estimated figures?

Yes, I do and, unfortunately, they have not been updated.

Several people have asked Tim Spector on twitter about the most recent numbers. Hopefully, he will see their questions and ask his team to look into this.

@boys3

Relevant to the surge testing Woking had around 4 times as many pillar two PCR tests in the week to 5 Feb as compared with the previous 7 days. A single figure number of LSOAs make up around three quarters of those tests, with just over 100 cases confirmed, with a positivity of 1.5% overall. Which surprised me a bit as I thought more asymptomatic cases might have been picked up with that number of tests, and remembering these are PCR not LFs. Not directly related but Woking had around 4K LFTs in the same period with one hand being sufficient to count the number of positives.

Sorry but do you mean you'd have expected higher positivity in those areas, because of the higher number of tests and possibly the variant?

2 doses of Pfizer still appear to work for the South African variant (or other variants with the E418K mutation). It is an engineered experiment rather than a proper RCT but its outcome should be pretty reliable

Isn't this the same as AZ though, in vitro the antibodies still work, but what's happened with AZ is that they probably still work in the body so protect against serious illness, but not in the mucus, so you still get the "mild illness" (ie "a cold"), but it also means you can still spread it?

So it doesn't rule out the same situation with Pfizer.

Ah, much appreciated @wintertravel1980

I really must get my arse into the last decade and get on Twitter

HI folks - As you know I run www.covidmessenger.com on a voluntary basis.

I'm trying to reduce my time on it a bit so I have enough time to support my DD in homeschooling which I am finding pretty hard at the moment.

So, while I will be updating the website every day, and continuing to run the daily email service, I am going to have to cut back on my social media presence. So I won't be popping on here everyday to let you all know when the website is updated.

So, for anyone who usually looks out for my message before checking the website, please know that I will continue to publish the cases in each council in England on www.covidmessenger.com every day, shortly after the govt data release, even if you don't see a message here from me.

I will pop this message on the good news thread too.

I hope you all stay safe and hopefully when things are a bit more manageable I can be back on here for a discussion and analysis.

All the the best and stay safe. Your support has meant so much to me.

H x

@littleowl1
Really appreciate your hard work. I'm always impressed how quickly you get the figures out.

Keep safe and stressfree!

Huge thanks @littleowl1 hopefully we won't be homeschooling for long...

re the zoe data - I had my vaccine last week and entered my relatively modest side effects into the app and was offered a test. I declined because I''m having to have twice weekly LFTs at work already but I wonder if they are separating out people with post vax symptoms from people who are feeling below par generally.

On Zoe - Tim Spector replied on twitter. Apparently they were having computing issues over the weekend but things should get back to normal starting from tomorrow.

The estimated daily transmission rate as of yesterday should have been 17,231, more than 5% down day on day. A very significant drop.

@JanFebAnyMonth - yes, more so as they are PCRs, although thinking about it 1.5% is just over 1 in 65, so probably not that surprising. ?

Ah yes boys!

Do we know if the SA variant/B1351 is equally likely to be asymptomatic? I’m thinking a lot of asymptomatic B1351 might not be a thing, because if it’s superior receptor binding properties?

In which case, if you’re not catching lots of asymptomatic cases, and you’re not identifying the B1351 variant for 7-10 days after sampling...surge testing may not achieve very much??