Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

When I hear cases at 20k it sounds a big reduction, esp compared to previous week

But 1 in 55 doesn’t, nor does it sound so fast in reducing

Am I missing something? (Possibly)

@ancientgran. I don't suppose your DD is lying. But it is possible her school isn't typical of everywhere. There has been data published by DoE that shows 80% of primary aged children are out of school, and much higher for secondary.

It's correct though that there has been quite a drop in infection rates among secondary aged children. So that would suggest that schools are a significant source of infection for secondary aged children, but less so at primary age.

Numbers still trending down on the dashboard - but surely the death data is broken somehow?

"We estimate 603,000 children are currently attending early years childcare settings on Thursday 21 January – about 41% of the number of children who usually attend childcare in term time"

This is so interesting and emphasises the pitfalls of anecdotal evidence. I work in a maintained nursery school and we are at around 90%. I am part of a national group for MNS and the picture is similar across the board on there, so have assumed that is the case everywhere - but those statistics prove otherwise

On the confirmed cases front in England downward trajectory continues.

Spec dates

Monday 25th

1021 added taking total to 26795. This compares with last week’s reporting for Monday 18th of 2111 cases added and a total after four reporting days of 40184.

We can probably safely say that barring any sofa surprises Monday 25th will be below 30,000, and in likelihood less than 28000.

Tuesday 26th

4731 cases added today, taking total to 23615. This time last week 9515 cases added and a three day total of 34305.

So this Tuesday likely to top out at around or a bit under 25000. A pretty substantial week on week fall.

Wednesday 27th

16406 added today, taking day two total to 19584. This time last week 20769 added with a two day total of 24569.

And for completeness just 129 added to Sunday 24th taking total to 15379 as compared to 26224 total for the previous Sunday.

A few Sylvanian Family sofa events with additions today of

364 to 11 January

88 to 10 January

157 to 9 January

147 to 7 January

In total 894 cases added today to 5th January to 11th January spec dates

And 213 knocked off the daily totals covering 12th to 19th jan

And just as I ask the question, there's been a banner added to the dashboard saying 'Due to an issue with the processing of deaths data, the update for 29 January 2021 does not include any updates to deaths figures. These will be added later today.'

@kittykarate but wouldn't it be great if it was zero. Will we ever see it?

But 1 in 55 doesn’t, nor does it sound so fast in reducing

It's completely inconsistent, it implies a huge number of positive cases that are not being picked up in symptomatic of LFT tests in the community that are being picked up in the sample the ONS use.

It implies there's a large group engaged enough to join the ONS, but who are not testing with symptoms, or the percentage of people with symptoms has dropped even further (ie you're more likely to not have symptoms).

Or, the ONS is no longer representative / is picking up cases that are no longer positive (dead virus positives) and the 1 in 55 is overstating - possibly after understating a previous week depending on methodology.

I can't see any realistic way that both statements are correct, the 20k is simply too few, so I guess it depends how optimistic or pessimistic you want to be! Personally I'm sure the ONS figures are too large unless they seriously underestimated the weeks over christmas, as the other numbers are moving in sync as expected.

[quote Firefliess]@ancientgran. I don't suppose your DD is lying. But it is possible her school isn't typical of everywhere. There has been data published by DoE that shows 80% of primary aged children are out of school, and much higher for secondary.

It's correct though that there has been quite a drop in infection rates among secondary aged children. So that would suggest that schools are a significant source of infection for secondary aged children, but less so at primary age. [/quote]
No I'm sure she isn't lying, she is happy they have so many in. She is in school 5 days a week, in first lockdown it was 2 or 3 days a week.

@PatriciaHolm

According to the latest stats for 11-21 Jan -

"Attendance on 21 January was 21% in state-funded primary schools, 5% in state-funded secondary schools and 30% in state-funded special schools, all the same as 13 January".

That equates to around 1 million primary pupils and 170,000 secondary ones.

also

"We estimate 603,000 children are currently attending early years childcare settings on Thursday 21 January – about 41% of the number of children who usually attend childcare in term time"

Thanks very useful

@sirfredfredgeorge

But 1 in 55 doesn’t, nor does it sound so fast in reducing

It's completely inconsistent, it implies a huge number of positive cases that are not being picked up in symptomatic of LFT tests in the community that are being picked up in the sample the ONS use.

It implies there's a large group engaged enough to join the ONS, but who are not testing with symptoms, or the percentage of people with symptoms has dropped even further (ie you're more likely to not have symptoms).

Or, the ONS is no longer representative / is picking up cases that are no longer positive (dead virus positives) and the 1 in 55 is overstating - possibly after understating a previous week depending on methodology.

I can't see any realistic way that both statements are correct, the 20k is simply too few, so I guess it depends how optimistic or pessimistic you want to be! Personally I'm sure the ONS figures are too large unless they seriously underestimated the weeks over christmas, as the other numbers are moving in sync as expected.

Very interesting. And I’m glad I’m not the only one who finds it strange!

And as I’m feeling particularly geeky in today’s England number

51 cases and 70 cases added to December and October spec dates respectively

November reduced by 75 cases

Then a net addition of 3 cases between January 2020 and end September, the most exciting (Seriously????) addition being 9 added to April 15th

I can hear the siren call of the first Friday glass of

I think it is very likely that there are a large number of asymptomatic cases who don't know they are positive. ONS have consistently had much higher figures than the government's figures for confirmed cases, all the way through.

The recent declines in numbers actually tested would fit with this too.

LFTs are known to report a high number of false negatives.

So I go with ONS, I think they give the most reliable estimate we have.

I do enjoy these comparisons, boys3!
I wonder what causes them...

@Sirfred. Part of the discrepancy between ONS and the detected case rate fall is the dates - the ONS data is from the week ending 23 January - so people tested between 16th and 23rd. Even if they only detect people who caught it within the last week at the time they were tested, that takes you back to the 9th January. Reported cases with a specimen date of 11 January were 57k! - which is almost the peak. So I think it's largely a lag issue. They can't have picked up the recent fall in case rates as it's been too recent.

Whilst we wait the CM update I think the number of councils showing a week on week fall using the 5 day reporting lag is today finally starting with a 3. 300 by my reckoning.

Without looking first I can guess which one of those stats they will use as the headline today. Another thing that bothers me is the bbc always reports cases up by 20,000 for example even in a downward trend. Which could be read as 20,000 more than the day before , not 20,000 more than 0. Sorry just a rant as I’m fed up with doom scrolling and prefer looking here

Also Indpendent SAGE were looking at the ONS figures plotted together with the REACT figures today and thought that they broadly fitted the same picture - one of a plateauing of infection rates more or less up to 23rd January.

Didn't even realise we were on a new thread! Hello and thank you!

Of those 900 odd cases added today to 5th to 11th Jan spec dates very concentrated in 3 regions

London 370

North west 215

South east 152

Just 6 for West Midlands and 1 to the North East, more importantly that not being to County Durham :)

Anecdata, but a colleague was telling me today how her mum had picked up asymptomatic covid in Sainsbury's. Was first identified via LFT as she is a carer, then confirmed. Mum hadn't been at work - hence identifying source as the supermarket.

Colleague then went on to moan how noisy it is at home because her primary-aged sisters couldn't go to school...

I can't help thinking it is far more likely that her Mum picked up the virus from her daughters than the supermarket. It's crazy to rule schools out because it is convenient to pretend that they are sterile spaces.

@PurpleWh1teGreen yup. Do you think she's one of the many who swallowed the "kids don't get it" line last summer?

You have to wonder don't you?

The table of cases in each council in England is updated with today's data release on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage.

As always, click the county column to sort by county to quickly see the situation across all councils in your county.

Very good to see so much green and remarkable how the worst hit councils keep posting ultra dramatic falls - just look at London councils!

Astonishing change vs. a fortnight ago.

Hopefully it will continue!

And only 15 councils with week-over-week rises in cases too.