Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

J&J vaccine results out this morning showing efficacy for moderate and severe disease 72% in the U.S. and 58% in S.A., no one required hospitalization. One-dose shot that requires traditional refrigeration. Two-dose trial ongoing.
mobile.twitter.com/uche_blackstock/status/1355143157906894848

www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

First trial powered to answer the severe Covid-19 question: efficacy was 85% at 28 days after the injection (no event breakdown or confidence intervals). For moderate to severe, efficacy was 66%, varying a bit in the 3 regions (from 57% in SA to 72% in the US).
mobile.twitter.com/hildabast/status/1355145451628969984

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]J&J vaccine results out this morning showing efficacy for moderate and severe disease 72% in the U.S. and 58% in S.A., no one required hospitalization. One-dose shot that requires traditional refrigeration. Two-dose trial ongoing.
mobile.twitter.com/uche_blackstock/status/1355143157906894848[/quote]
But doesn't "severe" mean hospitalisation? Or do definitions vary?

More data from Israel on Pfizer/BionTech:

Preprint: "The effectiveness of the first dose of BNT162b2 vaccine in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infection 13-24 days after immunization: real-world evidence"
mobile.twitter.com/andrew_croxford/status/1355138279939710981

Their definition is: In the study, the definition of severe COVID-19 disease included laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: signs consistent with severe systemic illness, admission to an intensive care unit, respiratory failure, shock, organ failure or death, among other factors. Moderate COVID-19 disease was defined as laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 and one or more of the following: evidence of pneumonia, deep vein thrombosis, shortness of breath or abnormal blood oxygen saturation above 93%, abnormal respiratory rate (≥20); or two or more systemic symptoms suggestive of COVID-19.

The Janssen COVID-19 vaccine candidate demonstrated complete protection against COVID-related hospitalization and death, 28 days post-vaccination. There was a clear effect of the vaccine on COVID-19 cases requiring medical intervention (hospitalization, ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO)), with no reported cases among participants who had received the Janssen COVID-19 vaccine, 28 days post-vaccination.
www.jnj.com/johnson-johnson-announces-single-shot-janssen-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-met-primary-endpoints-in-interim-analysis-of-its-phase-3-ensemble-trial

From the NYT article linked:
"Johnson & Johnson presented only a summary of findings of its clinical trial. The vaccine was 85 percent effective in preventing severe disease in all three regions where the trial was run: the United States, Latin America and South Africa. After 28 days, none of the vaccinated participants who developed Covid-19 had to be hospitalized."

Sorry if I'm being dense but why is that (and coffee 's text above) not 100% effectiveness against severe illness/hospitalisation?

The percentage of people testing positive has decreased in all ages except age two years to school Year 6 in the week ending 23 January 2021

That's very interesting. What percentage of that age group are in school?

@wintertravel1980 - I thought guidance has been not to do another PCR test within 3 months, so why would the ONS be re-swabbing positive cases? That's a methodology error if they are, and a pretty stupid one.

It’s odd that the ONS survey shows no decrease in the school aged population.

Do you mean primary age? I agree. With classes around half full, (what is the stat on that?), it hasn’t changed

PHE surveillance report shows the positivity rate to be highest in this age group too. There are about 20% of children in school at primary level , but this percentage varies quite a lot between areas. Some nurseries are fully open.

I did not find it surprising based on research about child infections; that children were infected less previously and more by the new variant. Some people are more exposed to covid (in large households / meeting lots of others / attending work or school etc); a proportion of exposed adults will have already caught covid, but fewer of the exposed children have caught covid previously so a higher proportion of them will catch it this time when exposed.

I appreciate there are a cohort who have never believed in the previous data nor research about child infections. I don't wish to get drawn into similar debates again, so advance apologies that I won't respond to the multiple comments disagreeing with this. Noted that you'll disagree ladies, no hard feelings.

@MarshaBradyo

It’s odd that the ONS survey shows no decrease in the school aged population.

Do you mean primary age? I agree. With classes around half full, (what is the stat on that?), it hasn’t changed

Maybe because being in school for young children actually doesn’t increase their risk of infection? Isn’t that what PHE claimed?

Given that Janssen is adenovirus too, what makes it particularly different from Oxford AZ except that they only give one dose and check the results a bit later? I see that are trialling a second dose; isn't it going to be pretty much identical then?

@Quarantino

If I am understanding it correctly it's 100% efficacy after 49 days, but 85% efficacy after 28 days??

mobile.twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1355149007220310019

@MarshaBradyo

It’s odd that the ONS survey shows no decrease in the school aged population.

Do you mean primary age? I agree. With classes around half full, (what is the stat on that?), it hasn’t changed

Could this also be partly explained by nurseries and other early years settings being fully open? Cases there have definitely been increasing, albeit from a low base: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/954279/ReporteddcoronavirusCOVID-19casessbyregistereddearlyyearssandchildcareesettings.csv/preview?fbclid=IwAR1-uMCp53av8gqObcPTNkA8xvw5-6Mx8fXpBvzwWzQGWE0pFg1kgTHHddA

@Mrex - it uses a different adenovirus vector. This can impact on the immune response generated I understand.

@pinkpip100
Could this also be partly explained by nurseries and other early years settings being fully open?
No because it says school years 2-6, which isn't nurseries and early years.

1 there have been quite a lot of children going into schools anyway, more than the first wave

1. very infectious variant that is liable to spread more easily in a school setting?

[quote Witchend]@pinkpip100
Could this also be partly explained by nurseries and other early years settings being fully open?
No because it says school years 2-6, which isn't nurseries and early years.[/quote]
No it says aged 2 to school year 6 which includes nursery children.

There are about 20% of children in school at primary level , but this percentage varies quite a lot between areas.

Ok thanks I wasn’t sure on stat

One thing about nurseries is that state school nurseries are closed here or just for KW. Not sure what proportion are following same.

@lonelyplanet Thanks. I missed that. My mistake.

Thanks @littlestpogo

@MarshaBradyo

There are about 20% of children in school at primary level , but this percentage varies quite a lot between areas.

Ok thanks I wasn’t sure on stat

One thing about nurseries is that state school nurseries are closed here or just for KW. Not sure what proportion are following same.

I thought state school nurseries had to stay open. In my local primary the 2 nursery classes are fully open.

It may be controversial but data showing very little decline among school aged children despite 80%+ of them not being in school does clearly point to infections outside of schools being the main way in which children catch Covid. From their parents most likely, or possibly from nursery aged siblings, childcare bubbles, support bubbles or illicit socialising - All of this type of contact may of course have increased since schools closed - children have not been locked in their bedrooms, have they? So it could be that a fair proportion of transmission did previously occur in schools, but a similar amount extra is now occuring elsewhere. But if schools were the main source of transmission to children and we take 80%+ of children out of school, we would have expected to see a measurable decrease in rates among children.

EMA approved AZ for all 18+