Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

mobile.twitter.com/kakape/status/1355174963263766532

@MRex

No, they are not re-swabbing positive cases but they only swab their long standing participants every month.

This means that people who received a positive test during the week ending Jan 23 were last tested (negative) in mid-Dec. Given the increased percentage of positive tests “where the virus was too low for the variant to be identifiable”, it is possible that the 1 in 55 prevalence might include a meaningful number of individuals who got infected earlier during the pandemic, are no longer contagious but have still got virus debris.

Figure 14 in the ONS report shows that prevalence of both the new and the old variant in England is now decreasing. The only line on the rise is cases “where the virus was too low for the variant to be identifiable”. My hypothesis is these are old cases picked up during the first round of swabs post the Christmas peak.

@Firefliess there has bees big decline in secondary school age rates though.

Been

Although, it isn't a random 20% of pupils in school. The pupils in school right now are the most likely to be exposed to covid in their home lives. They are the children of front line workers who are more likely to be exposed occupationally and some proportion of vulnerable pupils are likely to be more exposed as well because of chaotic home lives, overcrowded housing etc.

Children in school also aren't in groups 20% of the size of a full class, due to the need to staff home learning provision. They are in class sizes marginally smaller than full classes in lots of cases. So you have the group of pupils most likely to be the index case in a school still in a similarly sized group of children.

The interesting data would be too see what proportion of aged 2 to year 6 pupils who test positive are attending school or childcare and which are at home.

All of this type of contact may of course have increased since schools closed

I’d have to see stats, but based on what I’ve seen people do stick to rules and primary age are home or exercise with one other.

@Firefliess

It may be controversial but data showing very little decline among school aged children despite 80%+ of them not being in school does clearly point to infections outside of schools being the main way in which children catch Covid. From their parents most likely, or possibly from nursery aged siblings, childcare bubbles, support bubbles or illicit socialising - All of this type of contact may of course have increased since schools closed - children have not been locked in their bedrooms, have they? So it could be that a fair proportion of transmission did previously occur in schools, but a similar amount extra is now occuring elsewhere. But if schools were the main source of transmission to children and we take 80%+ of children out of school, we would have expected to see a measurable decrease in rates among children.

Agree that rest could be the case though

I thought state school nurseries had to stay open. In my local primary the 2 nursery classes are fully open.

Yep, majority are still fully open, although some LAs have been more lenient on this and left it to the discretion of headteachers.

Unless we know that younger children (i.e. 4 and under) are not able to transmit the virus (is there robust evidence on this?) I can't see how this won't be contributing to the lack of decrease in the younger age group. Many maintained nursery schools have much larger class sizes than primary schools, plus several adults in each class, no social distancing, greater levels of intimate care and usually quite high SEN levels (with even closer adult support).

@Firefliess

It may be controversial but data showing very little decline among school aged children despite 80%+ of them not being in school does clearly point to infections outside of schools being the main way in which children catch Covid. From their parents most likely, or possibly from nursery aged siblings, childcare bubbles, support bubbles or illicit socialising - All of this type of contact may of course have increased since schools closed - children have not been locked in their bedrooms, have they? So it could be that a fair proportion of transmission did previously occur in schools, but a similar amount extra is now occuring elsewhere. But if schools were the main source of transmission to children and we take 80%+ of children out of school, we would have expected to see a measurable decrease in rates among children.

Many more than 80% are out of school, because all secondary kids are out, as well as about 70% of Primary children (if you take off the nursery classes). However the graphs that I posted above with positively rates are interesting because the rates in secondary children have dropped enormously and none of them are in, however primary and nursery have now got the highest rates. Yes some families will be mixing but not in as big groups as they are at school. Our bubbles have about 12 children in. Nursery classes up to 30. Unlikely many families invite this number round on playdates!

Lonely not here. Just KW open in school. A few of us were going to switch from private to school nursery and feel very lucky as we wouldn’t have non KW dc in if we had.

I don’t think it’s across the board though and not sure how many are same

It may be controversial but data showing very little decline among school aged children despite 80%+ of them not being in school does clearly point to infections outside of schools being the main way in which children catch Covid. From their parents most likely, or possibly from nursery aged siblings, childcare bubbles, support bubbles or illicit socialising

Wasn't there evidence from last term to indicate that children were more likely than adults to bring infection into their household - something like 7 times as likely for secondary aged, but definitely still increased for younger children? Sorry, I don't have the link though.

@Firefliess

It may be controversial but data showing very little decline among school aged children despite 80%+ of them not being in school does clearly point to infections outside of schools being the main way in which children catch Covid. From their parents most likely, or possibly from nursery aged siblings, childcare bubbles, support bubbles or illicit socialising - All of this type of contact may of course have increased since schools closed - children have not been locked in their bedrooms, have they? So it could be that a fair proportion of transmission did previously occur in schools, but a similar amount extra is now occuring elsewhere. But if schools were the main source of transmission to children and we take 80%+ of children out of school, we would have expected to see a measurable decrease in rates among children.

I think though it's not as simple as that.

Some primary schools have 80% of pupils in. Some have 5%.
You would need to look at the children who have the positive tests and see if they are children in school or not.

Another thing that could be looked at is does secondary age dip in holiday time v does primary

Positivity for children (0 to 4 and 5 to 9) is going down.

It is indeed not going down as fast as for other age groups but this might be skewed by the significant ramp up in lateral flow testing at workplaces since the start of the year. I am not sure if children are now tested at school (they are not at DD’s nursery) but, in any case, I would expect most of LFTs to be used by adults working outside of home (e.g. at manufacturing sites, in offices, etc). The positivity rate for LFT (primarily used for asymptomatic individuals) will be lower than PCR.

I think PHE should publish separate positivity graphs for PCR and LFT testing.

We have 107 students in our secondary school today. They are most certainly not empty. All KW and vulnerable students. Just like last lockdown.

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]This somewhat punctures my optimism after those Novavax results mobile.twitter.com/PeterKolchinsky/status/1354929042965864451[/quote]
That doesn't sound good.

Many more than 80% are out of school, because all secondary kids are out Well my daughter, who teaches in a secondary school, is lying to me then as she reckons year 7 and year 8 children are in at her school, not all of them but keyworker/vulnerable children. I don't think many older ones are in although my GS tells me one of his friends in year 11 is in as a keyworker's child.

@mumsneedwine

We have 107 students in our secondary school today. They are most certainly not empty. All KW and vulnerable students. Just like last lockdown.

Not necessarily empty, but that can still be a small percentage.

107 of my dc's infant school would have been around 70%%

107 of the secondary school is about 5%.

The secondary does have around 100 pupils in, who are being taught in groups of no more than 10 with no contact between the groups and siblings put in the same group. Mine you they only had about 20 in the first lockdown, so still a huge increase.

But aren’t we just talking about primary and 80% out there

That’s the group with intriguing stats - ie not changing much

Has anyone looked at today's figures. I'm seeing 29079 cases and 0 deaths?

Just noticed there is a message about processing the deaths.

No, they are not re-swabbing positive cases but they only swab their long standing participants every month

As well as your note (which seems very plausible), how does ONS manage to maintain a representative sample in any case, if they exclude any positive case - which they must as we know you can't retest in 90 days, then these people need to be replaced in the survey with similar profile individuals. But finding similar profile individuals who have not already had the virus (so can't be tested) is obviously getting harder and harder.

Controlling to get a representative sample must be getting progressively more difficult - especially with the excluded people almost guaranteed not to have the virus, so the new members are more likely to be positive than the people they've replaced in the sample.

Can't see any discussion on how they control for that - it wouldn't've made any difference at the start of course, but now...

There's a banner saying the deaths stats will be added later.

According to the latest stats for 11-21 Jan -

"Attendance on 21 January was 21% in state-funded primary schools, 5% in state-funded secondary schools and 30% in state-funded special schools, all the same as 13 January".

That equates to around 1 million primary pupils and 170,000 secondary ones.

also

"We estimate 603,000 children are currently attending early years childcare settings on Thursday 21 January – about 41% of the number of children who usually attend childcare in term time"

@MarshaBradyo

Another thing that could be looked at is does secondary age dip in holiday time v does primary

Both seem to dip sharply in the second half of the holidays.