Do you think lockdown could end mid Feb?

[EgSk]

Just that really . And what tier do you think your area will fall into?

I know the prediction is March but I’m being hopeful 😔 I would even be excited for tier 4 at this point .

Not a chance. My guess is lockdown till at least mid March and tier 4 for a month then tier three, two and one each month thereafter. Hopefully almost all restrictions lifted by mid July for the summer period, or tier one.

Lockdown / Tiers same thing really. It may not be lockdown by name but it will be by nature, Tier 4 Plus or something like that.

There will be some sort of restriction for the rest of the year in my opinion.

We are all in Tier 4, aren't we? Hasn't the government just changed/tightened the rules for Tier 4 to get us here?

I could see some areas getting a drop down to T3 (maybe with tightened T3 rules) around mid February but I would be suprised if any significant areas are dropped before end Feb and personally, am not expecting much progress before Easter.

But what do I know? I am just guessing

When I was in tier 4 I could do more than now ( not a lot more mind you ). We had an outdoor heated swimming pool still open and outdoor farms could stay open , both of which I regularly visited .

No idea. Sometimes I feel like it would be easier if we all just killed ourselves, there is no fucking point to this life

No but it might be eased slightly, eg to allow more businesses to open (and maybe to stop the frothing on the wedding venue thread, to allow people to view a wedding venue www.mumsnet.com/Talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/4139337-Is-this-actually-allowed?pg=3).

I'd like to think they'd get exam years into school but I suspect that's wishful thinking.

Yes, I think by early March they will end lockdown and put everyone into tier 3. Then tier 2 by April/May. Then tier 1 or no tiers at all by the summer.

I expect the government want as many non-essential shops open as soon as possible so with the vaccines being delivered speedily I think infection rates will continue to fall and death rate numbers will fall next month. My prediction is that we'll be in tiers sometime next month.

Things should slowly start to lift. But if we all go crazy then there is a risk the virus will mutate.. covid is going to still be in circulation and the vaccine doesn’t mean people won’t catch it, just be less ill if/ when they do. We don’t want to end up back at square one. I hope badly that the government and citizens proceed with caution

@tatutata

No idea. Sometimes I feel like it would be easier if we all just killed ourselves, there is no fucking point to this life

This is how I'm feeling. Life just feels fucking pointless, there is just no joy anymore.

After seeing these charts, I don't think so to be honest.

www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-cases-v1/

They are quite shocking - the number of cases in hospital far exceed during the last lockdown.

I just can't see the pressure on the NHS easing enough in a few weeks. I really hope I am wrong though.

Not likely, as cases are currently starting to fall in some areas but rising in others.

Deaths and hospital admissions are still going up everywhere.

How many more cycles of opening and closing can we handle? I’d really rather drive this shit properly down, get most adults vaccinated than have to have another one of these again over next Christmas.

No. The threat of the NHS being overwhelmed will not disappear that quickly. March is a more realistic timescale for the start of some limited relaxation of restrictions, eg schools & non-essential retail.

If everyone in vulnerable groups has been vaccinated with at least one shot by Easter, hospitality gyms, etc should be able to re-open in a covid-compliant way. Then we can crack on with vaccinating the wider population at massive speed & scale ahead of a return to something resembling normality by summer.

I think it's possible, but more likely end of February. I had thought Easter but they keep saying they want to lift some restrictions in March so I'm now think it will be end of Feb, everyone into Tier 4 with a few areas Tier 3.

The vaccine minister said today that restrictions should start to be lifted in March. Rab also said this a few days ago. So that sounds like all going well is there plan.

Cases are falling in most areas. Hospital admissions are expected to peak next week. In London they already appear to have peaked.

Deaths will take about another two or three weeks to peak.

The vaccination program is starting on group 4. Is expected to finish the priority list in March. From a save NHS point of view the elderly and vulnerable will all of had first jab. So things should be eased up a fair bit. Israel's initial data on hospital admissions after vaccination of their elderly is looking good.

They’re hinting back to Tier System March, I’d guess mid-end March.

Oh and I am in London so expect tier 4 to start

As Coumo (Mayor of New York who was incredibly pro lockdown etc) said they have to open sometime or there’ll be nothing left. This Zero Covid movement headed by that woman Devi is unrealistic and just sets people up for disappointment. Balance as with most things in life is required!

No I don't, am mentally preparing myself for end March so I can get pleasantly surprised if earlier.

I think this lockdown will be 'eased' in March to the Tier system as others have said but by October/November time, as flu and norovirus do the rounds we will go back into lockdown from November to March again.

I don't think so.

There's no plan for schools prior to half-term and they will start there, I think. I think more likely Mid-March.

I hope I'm wrong though. I worked out the other day that, if we do get to Mid March before schools go back, my Year 6 DD will, in part due to bubble closures etc, have had just 7 weeks in school in a whole year.

They are quite shocking - the number of cases in hospital far exceed during the last lockdown.

This is true, but bear in mind a lot of the cases in hospital have actually caught it in there (I know several people who've picked it up in hospital)

It would be nice if they could implement some proper measures in schools to be able to open them more safely this time. Hopefully after half term, provided the pressure on the NHS has eased and vaccinations are on schedule.