Do you think lockdown could end mid Feb?

[EgSk]

Just that really . And what tier do you think your area will fall into?

I know the prediction is March but I’m being hopeful 😔 I would even be excited for tier 4 at this point .

I think it’s looking likely schools will go back after half term now, I think they’ll do that first keep everything else locked down and then implement tier 3 mid March.

@SmudgeButt

It's like a diet. We're going to yo yo on with this for the foreseeable future. Politicians will be stupid and loosen things, we'll all go charging back to the pubs and gyms and there'll be another spike. Lather, rinse, repeat.

given that they are talking about by March 5 million will be vaccinated out of 60mil+ and the rest not done before next autumn there is no safety for quite some time. I'm not sure where the 5 mil comes from given that they haven't fully vaccinated those over 90 let alone those of us who work and shop and the rest.

I'm thinking 2023 things might (maybe) be approaching normal as we used to know it.

Its around 39 million to be vaccinated if you take out children and those that can't be vaccinated, and over 5m have already had a first dose.

There is no way we will start seeing the effectiveness of the vaccine until Mid March.

1. You need time for those vaccinated to build immunity
2. You need time to vaccine enough people for there to be enough of an impact on data for it to become visible
3. You need time to allow for the lag on hospitalisations (2 to 3 weeks after infection) and deaths (normally a week after hospitalisation)

We have probably only just reached critical mass on the over 80s group. So we are look at first week of feb for immunity to kick in, and then its several weeks after that before you see the difference in hospitalisation and deaths. And probably a week or two after that to review data and assess whether it represents a sustained pattern.

The government are highly unlikely to act until they get this data in. Especially since the 50 - 65 age group won't be vaccinated until around then at the earliest and are still considered at risk.

I don't get way this is difficult to comprehend. The data and figures just won't be good enough before mid March to start easing anything simply because of just how bad the situation in hospitals is, how many cases we have and how high deaths are.

There are not any short cuts available.

@RedToothBrush I agree with you: the govt is clearly waiting to see the evidence of the jabs (and whether they reduce transmission) before making any decisions.

It will have to be after the Easter bank holiday at the earliest (they can’t risk people getting together at Easter after the Christmas bubbles fuck-up).

@Blobby10

I think this lockdown will be 'eased' in March to the Tier system as others have said but by October/November time, as flu and norovirus do the rounds we will go back into lockdown from November to March again.

If that is the case do you think we will be in lockdown 5 months a year every year? Bit pants for us who have birthdays in those months 😅

From the link that @olderthanilookapparently posted.
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4 million will have been vaccinated by the end of TODAY??

Are people counting one jab as being ‘vaccinated’?

If so, why are we bothering with the second jab?

[quote peboh]@Redlocks28 I'm guessing not. Because my nana is group 3 and hasn't been offered a vaccine yet. Clearly they're just choosing priority groups at random. [/quote]
No it isn't random. I am afraid some areas have just got through their 80s and over quicker. Lots of different reasons for this.

Anyway my area is on the 70s and started to get in the group 4s now.

The papers are shouting out at the moment how 70s and the clinically vulnerable are about to start being vaccinated.( Obviously again some areas may still be behind.)

How are you not hearing about this?

@scentedgeranium

Tiers will def be over by June when Johnson hosts the G7 meeting down the road from me in Cornwall. He won't be able to justify leaders and entourages flying in from everywhere while his own populace are under any restrictions It's his chance to stalk the world stage for one last time.

I did wonder why the Government chose Carbis Bay - it's beautiful, but tiny.

@scentedgeranium, can you expand on "one last time?". To the best of my knowledge, Johnson has a secure majority and he is not due for re-election for another couple of years. He could step down, but that usually involves a knife in the back, with the Tories.

@Jellington

Doubt it tbh. Case numbers are still pretty high everywhere. I'm focusing on the fact that longer lockdown equals more vaccines given by the time we can go out.

Not a bad attitude to have at all. Win win really

This afternoon the press are reporting this:

Lockdown restrictions could be lifted from early March, with a return to the tier system for controlling Covid-19, the vaccines minister has said.

Could
and early March is the very earliest date the minister in charge of vaccinations is offering.

Why on earth people think Mid Feb is remotely viable is actually hurting my head.

I think 'early' march is optimistic tbh. Its far more likely to be mid to late March as they will want to see sustained patterns and hospitals starting to get to more manageable levels.

The amount of wishful thinking going on is deeply unhelpful.

I did wonder why the Government chose Carbis Bay - it's beautiful, but tiny.

To encourage world tourism to the area because the eyes of the world are on it.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum
I tend to avoid most news outlets, and only keep up with what's local to me at the moment. We aren't hearing anything about that group moving to vaccination yet. However I do know of several people in croup 1 and 4 that have been vaccinated. Also people in groups 5 and above.

@TheABC too many links to share but if you google Johnson Snap Election you'll see a lot of commentators are predicting one. He is also rumoured to not have the stomach to continue his term. I don't have insider knowledge. I just read a lot!
He also wants to shore up the newly entirely blue county of cornwall where the fishermen have been skewered over Brexit and where votes may be lost
Mind you I'm not sure many on the county have the stomach for this G7 jamboree!

@RedToothBrush

I did wonder why the Government chose Carbis Bay - it's beautiful, but tiny.

To encourage world tourism to the area because the eyes of the world are on it.

I think because it has very low covid rates and is one of the area's most fucked over by Brexit.

It is beautiful, but that isn't the reason.

Probably worried about losing seats back to the Lib Dems tbh.

I'm sure Dominic Raab said yesterday they were aiming to lessen restrictions in March so February is definitely out of the question.

Why on earth people think Mid Feb is remotely viable is actually hurting my head.

Yes agree - hospitalisations and daily deaths are still rising and not expected to peak for a bit yet.

They are all alluding to March now, but based on last time the first few loosening were very slight. Tips, garden centres meeting one person outside etc.

@Redlocks28

4 million will have been vaccinated by the end of TODAY??

Are people counting one jab as being ‘vaccinated’?

If so, why are we bothering with the second jab?

Yes the first jab is a vaccination- what would you call it? Injection of fresh air? The first jab gives a huge amount of protection and the second tops it up by a few further percent

@Redlocks28

4 million will have been vaccinated by the end of TODAY??

Are people counting one jab as being ‘vaccinated’?

If so, why are we bothering with the second jab?

Please go and do some research.

The first dose provides the majority of the protection. The second gives it a kind of top up to get maximum efficiency. The oxford vaccine actually gets more effective with the longer 12 week gap before the second dose. It provides excellent protection against having a serious infection.

Also once the Johnson & Johnson vaccination is approved it is a one dose vaccine and will speed up everything.

We have 30 million doses of the j&j ordered

How are you not hearing about this?

Just because I read something in the paper, doesn’t mean it’s true.

How many people are in the 70-79 age group, I wonder? That’s a fair few to get through before moving onto Group 4.

All cev adults in all age groups are getting an invite now

Yes some areas aren’t ready for them yet but some are so to suggest they won’t be done in another 4-5 weeks is too negative

Once elderly and all age cev are done - expected by mid Feb - then what are we actually waiting for? They’re not looking to stop covid, just to reduce deaths and help nhs

If people think we will lockdown til it’s gone they’re in for a surprise

@Appuskidu

How are you not hearing about this?

Just because I read something in the paper, doesn’t mean it’s true.

How many people are in the 70-79 age group, I wonder? That’s a fair few to get through before moving onto Group 4.

There you go no need to wonder.

They seem to now be planning to doing group 3 the 70s and group 4 clinically vulnerable at the same time.

They are currently on track to hit their target of the first 4 priority groups done by 15th.

I think some areas will be on group 5 by then easily. The capability of the vaccination program is very impressive.

@Pastanred

All cev adults in all age groups are getting an invite now

Yes some areas aren’t ready for them yet but some are so to suggest they won’t be done in another 4-5 weeks is too negative

Once elderly and all age cev are done - expected by mid Feb - then what are we actually waiting for? They’re not looking to stop covid, just to reduce deaths and help nhs

If people think we will lockdown til it’s gone they’re in for a surprise

3 weeks after 15th at a guess.

Just enough time for the immunity to build up in the last group done.

Also for the data to all look better.

So yes doomsters be gone with you

@PerfectPearl I know exactly what is going on in the world. You on the other hand know absolutely nothing about me, and yet you feel entirely confident in denying my perception of my life. My perspective is that out economy is in the toilet and will be for many years. America is on the brink of civil war. Our children live a lonely and anxious existence. I fear in my dark moments (which are most nights) that the vaccine will make fuck all difference and we will eventually run out of money to revaccinate everyone every year, because tax revenues are through the floor. Other countries will have riots from the increase in poverty, Brazil seems like a powder keg right now. The poorest in society will lose the most. Community groups, libraries, churches, gyms, hospitality and travel will be on the floor for years. There will be no medical care and no one will fix the pain I am in because it's not life threatening. Why the fuck would I be happy about any of that and in what fucking pollyanna world is it "not ideal"?? Not ideal was when my car broke down in France.