Do you think lockdown could end mid Feb?

[EgSk]

Just that really . And what tier do you think your area will fall into?

I know the prediction is March but I’m being hopeful 😔 I would even be excited for tier 4 at this point .

Our area has started the over 75s, seems to be luck of the draw depending where you live.

They are currently on track to hit their target of the first 4 priority groups done by 15th

Presume they then have to do all the second jabs of those x million people before before moving down to start on group 5

No, mid-Feb is too soon.

@SmudgeButt

It's like a diet. We're going to yo yo on with this for the foreseeable future. Politicians will be stupid and loosen things, we'll all go charging back to the pubs and gyms and there'll be another spike. Lather, rinse, repeat.

given that they are talking about by March 5 million will be vaccinated out of 60mil+ and the rest not done before next autumn there is no safety for quite some time. I'm not sure where the 5 mil comes from given that they haven't fully vaccinated those over 90 let alone those of us who work and shop and the rest.

I'm thinking 2023 things might (maybe) be approaching normal as we used to know it.

We're at around 4million vaccinated now, so do you really think they'll only be vaccinating another million in a month. I'm fully expecting to get mine in group 6 end of Feb beginning march the way things are going and there's 10-15 million in front of me

4 million people have been partially vaccinated, yes.

Where I live we are still doing over 80's and hoping that everyone in that group will have had an invite 'in the next few weeks' it seems incredible to me that some areas are already on group 4! I'm not expecting a vaccine for a long time (if at all?) but anxiously waiting on one for my nan who is currently in hospital (unrelated) and CEV dad.

It looks like large numbers of over 80s haven’t had the jab yet in some regions.

I wonder if that chart is showing % of people vaccinated or % of people who have only had one jab?

@Redlocks28

They are currently on track to hit their target of the first 4 priority groups done by 15th

Presume they then have to do all the second jabs of those x million people before before moving down to start on group 5

Actually the current rate of vaccinations a week will be 3 million soon.

Then they plan to ramp it up to over 4 million a week. So the capacity to vaccinate first and second doses will be there.

Plus once the Johnson and Johnson one dose vaccine is approved. That is a game changer.

You sounds like you are desperate for them to fail??? I am a cautious person and like to have all the facts but even I can see they will meet their first and second targets.

I think you also need to factor in other unforeseen events like the weather can throw at us. There's Storm Christophe coming in now from the Atlantic, that'll hit the N.Midlands and further north hard, with potential flooding and blizzards. That will have a knock on effect on vaccination numbers whether we like it or not.

I've given up trying to predict.

But the vaccination programme seems to be going well, and for all the shouts about it, they are getting vaccines into the sort of people who are most likely to die from covid, are the main groups filling the hospitals with covid and those who are needed to keep everyone else from dying. It is highly likely they will hit their mid Feb target.

The question is, are we going for a zero covid policy or just still aiming to stop the NHS from being overwhelmed? That's not clear.

If its just about keeping the NHS from being overwhelmed, then once the main groups have been vaccinated then there's no need for restrictions. Schools might be in and out with bubbles bursting and staff sick, but it doesn't matter for the main aim. The odd young person getting very ill with it won't cause problems for hospitals and if the staff are all vaccinated they don't have to personally worry from treating patients with it.

If we are finally trying to get rid of covid, then we'll be locked down for months with additional restrictions afterwards.

As May local elections are going ahead, I'm guessing we'll be out of lockdown before that campaign starts unless the NHS is close to collapse.

I am hoping that we will be able to get some sort of normality back from Easter until October. If this doesn't happen I really don't know how I will feel. I cannot live another year being trapped at home. My kids need to see their friends. I need human contact. I want to be able to go to my parents house for tea every Saturday like we used to do. I want to take my kids swimming. I want to go indoors and not wear a mask. I want life to be how it was before. Even if just for a short while

Obviously I just said I had given up trying to predict but then tried to predict! I mean, I've given up trying to work out what the aim is and if we can meet it. Its not clear. You can predict based on the facts then the target shifts.

Its really a case of just getting through.

No

No way. They'll barely have finished vaccinating the top 4 groups.

'get a grip' posters - you are infuriatingly patronising.

No, hospital cases are still really high to end it it Feb. End of March maybe back down to tier 4.

The new variants are also another consideration. Given the closure of borders and the reminders re touching surfaces and hand washing its obviously something else that needs careful handling re case numbers.

No, March at the earliest

I have think they will need to expand hospital capacity for future years and do mass nursing drive for icu nurses. Cornora will always be around and clearly be a huge strain on NHS along with flu.

The fact furlough was extended to the end of April says to me that we won’t be looking at much better than Tier 4 before then.

They will want to be sure everyone over 70 had been vaccinated, that they have had 3 weeks after and that the vaccine is actually having an impact. They will also want to see numbers in hospital decline to summer levels . I think end of Feb may be a move to Tiers. It they were shit anyway. No foreign holidays until late spring and full freedom by Late summer and only if no setbacks.

do mass nursing drive for icu nurses
I agree, it will be needed but they will struggle to find people willing to put themselves at risk of covid and ptsd for the meagre wages paid to nurses, not to mention no bursary any more:(

Lots of mentions of March today for starting to ease

Please let the schools go back soon, 3 kids, running a company and the incredible impact of Brexit on the company is doing me in. Felt like I was drowning today. Schools back tomorrow maybe?!

They keep mentioning March, so I don’t think we can even hope for it to be any sooner.

As an aside, they’ve started vaccinating 75-79s in my area. We’ve fucked up a lot of things during the pandemic, but I think we should be really proud of the vaccination effort!

Not a chance. My ds's won't be back to school till after Easter I'm sure.

@pommedeterre

Please let the schools go back soon, 3 kids, running a company and the incredible impact of Brexit on the company is doing me in. Felt like I was drowning today. Schools back tomorrow maybe?!