Do you think lockdown could end mid Feb?

[EgSk]

Just that really . And what tier do you think your area will fall into?

I know the prediction is March but I’m being hopeful 😔 I would even be excited for tier 4 at this point .

Didn't they say march time
Ease restrictions and that schools are priority.

It's in the Metro, Boris Johnson said they are looking at lowering restrictions in March but it depends on how vaccinations go. Several members of government have mentioned lowering restrictions in March so this clearly rules out February (sorry).

No I think there will be a slow end to lockdown and I think it will be April before things start to change.

Moving from this to tier 4 would be an insult, basically the same but I can go to a zoo! Tier 3 should be the next step down and I think that will be the plan for March. I think they will move the whole country through the tiers rather than individual areas otherwise people just move around, and coming out of lockdown a lot of places will be very similar in terms of rates.

@Mozfan

Yes, I think by early March they will end lockdown and put everyone into tier 3. Then tier 2 by April/May. Then tier 1 or no tiers at all by the summer.

I think this too, I’m in Scotland

@Sitdowncupoftea

No I think there will be a slow end to lockdown and I think it will be April before things start to change.

The government have already said this.

Its going to be a slow reopening as before.

@Katie517

Moving from this to tier 4 would be an insult, basically the same but I can go to a zoo! Tier 3 should be the next step down and I think that will be the plan for March. I think they will move the whole country through the tiers rather than individual areas otherwise people just move around, and coming out of lockdown a lot of places will be very similar in terms of rates.

They won't reopen schools and shops at the same time...

... You might want to think about how restrictions are lifted along these lines...

Well last time firstly we got to go to the dump here so that's something to look forward to.

This doesn't sound like there will be much easing of restrictions before April in a lot of places even if we are out of lockdown.

I note her that Whitty is viewed as the pessimist in this narrative but its the optimists planning for a break in restrictions and making the assumption there still will be pretty hefty restrictions at Easter.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Will Easter be the new Xmas, albeit a thin one? This is the PM's new hope, I'm told. He has privately shared an aspiration to see restrictions begin to ease by Good Friday (April 2), to allow families some small contact again. But there is tension with Chris Whitty though (1)

It is weeks away yet, but ministers have begun to put together a plan for the unlock. The CMO is adamant any end to the lockdown must be 1. conditions dependent (deaths down, pressure off the NHS etc), and 2. very careful and in slow degrees with pauses to test them (2)

That means no dates stated, and no promise of Easter offered. This tension emerged briefly during last Friday's press conference when Whitty and Johnson clashed briefly in public over the definition of 'Spring' - is it pre or post Easter (3)

Whitty is backed by Matt Hancock and other Cabinet 'doves'. One source close to the PM said Whitty “is being a bit wet” as tens millions of vaccinations will have cut the fatality risk a lot by then (aides insist this is not the PM’s view and he has deep respect for the CMO) (4)

Others in Government say there is a grim dawning realisation emerging that heavy restrictions - Tier 4 and 3 - are likely to have to remain in place in the big cities through April and even into May because current cases are so high and will take many weeks to decrease (5)

That's with or without the success of the vaccination programme, whose early huge success has even stunned No10. Senior Cabinet ministers' biggest worry now is another mutant variant that requires a new vaccine for everyone afresh. More on @TimesRadio after 7am (6)

@secretllama @tatutata it’s crap, but it’s going to start improving this Spring and will keep improving 💐 ☀️

@RedToothBrush

This doesn't sound like there will be much easing of restrictions before April in a lot of places even if we are out of lockdown.

I note her that Whitty is viewed as the pessimist in this narrative but its the optimists planning for a break in restrictions and making the assumption there still will be pretty hefty restrictions at Easter.

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
Will Easter be the new Xmas, albeit a thin one? This is the PM's new hope, I'm told. He has privately shared an aspiration to see restrictions begin to ease by Good Friday (April 2), to allow families some small contact again. But there is tension with Chris Whitty though (1)

It is weeks away yet, but ministers have begun to put together a plan for the unlock. The CMO is adamant any end to the lockdown must be 1. conditions dependent (deaths down, pressure off the NHS etc), and 2. very careful and in slow degrees with pauses to test them (2)

That means no dates stated, and no promise of Easter offered. This tension emerged briefly during last Friday's press conference when Whitty and Johnson clashed briefly in public over the definition of 'Spring' - is it pre or post Easter (3)

Whitty is backed by Matt Hancock and other Cabinet 'doves'. One source close to the PM said Whitty “is being a bit wet” as tens millions of vaccinations will have cut the fatality risk a lot by then (aides insist this is not the PM’s view and he has deep respect for the CMO) (4)

Others in Government say there is a grim dawning realisation emerging that heavy restrictions - Tier 4 and 3 - are likely to have to remain in place in the big cities through April and even into May because current cases are so high and will take many weeks to decrease (5)

That's with or without the success of the vaccination programme, whose early huge success has even stunned No10. Senior Cabinet ministers' biggest worry now is another mutant variant that requires a new vaccine for everyone afresh. More on @TimesRadio after 7am (6)

This guy definitely has his finger on the pulse in No 10.

Thanks everyone for the info and guesses. This lockdown is hitting me the worst but there is a light at the end of the tunnel .

Stay safe !

One source close to the PM said Whitty “is being a bit wet” as tens millions of vaccinations will have cut the fatality risk a lot by then (aides insist this is not the PM’s view and he has deep respect for the CMO) (4)

They must go on the data coming in, not simply by pulling a date out of their backsides because that's when they want things to start returning to normal, or because it's a holiday, or because they assume fatalities will have fallen a lot. Have they not learned anything from the Christmas debacle?

I think we'll be in more or less the same position this time next year as we are now. Every now and then, restrictions will be eased gradually in some areas but we'll all be so broken spirited that we'll just be grateful for small freedoms before they're snatched away again.

People who think Cornwall still has very low rates of Covid-19 need to look at the figures now. There's a rate of over 300 cases per 100,000 which is far from even being the lowest in the country. People rushing down from tier 4 before Christmas brought the new strain and fucked us (bear in mind our figure just before the Christmas hols was 18 cases per 100,000).

I also think that the obsession with getting schools back first is a real problem. It would be better to reopen other things that have less impact on virus transmission.

As others have said, it's not just about vaccination. We need to see the pressures on hospitals and icus (two separate things) reduce drastically before we can reopen.

@CrunchyCarrot

One source close to the PM said Whitty “is being a bit wet” as tens millions of vaccinations will have cut the fatality risk a lot by then (aides insist this is not the PM’s view and he has deep respect for the CMO) (4)

They must go on the data coming in, not simply by pulling a date out of their backsides because that's when they want things to start returning to normal, or because it's a holiday, or because they assume fatalities will have fallen a lot. Have they not learned anything from the Christmas debacle?

Quite clearly not. They don't care.

@HauntedPencil

Well last time firstly we got to go to the dump here so that's something to look forward to.

Beg March at the earliest it will start. Cases are coming down dramatically but hospitals in most areas on their knees and will be for several more weeks. Hospitals admissions and deaths coming down will be 2-4 weeks minimum behind the case rates.
That said with the vaccine and lockdown I think during the course of feb we could see significant downward trend in hospitalisation and death. Which could then lead to an easing in March.

Steven Swinford @steven_swinford
Patrick Vallance gives strong warning about releasing lockdown too quickly

'It's worth remembering the definition of insanity by Einstein which is doing same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome

'Every time you release it too quickly you get that upswing'

@Frazzled2207

Beg March at the earliest it will start. Cases are coming down dramatically but hospitals in most areas on their knees and will be for several more weeks. Hospitals admissions and deaths coming down will be 2-4 weeks minimum behind the case rates. That said with the vaccine and lockdown I think during the course of feb we could see significant downward trend in hospitalisation and death. Which could then lead to an easing in March.

I agree with this and also it will generally feel a lot less awful when we start seeing a reduction in deaths and cases and a feeling we are at least coming out of it

I'm actually suprised how quickly the cases have reduced - what a relief when they weren't sure the lockdown would hold the new strain.

I must say I'm impressed with the speed of the fall near us too- we were on over 60 people a day testing positive in our town in December, we were tier 4. But the last couple of days its been under 20. In this town at least, our positive results have dropped by 25% on the 7 day rolling average, that's huge! Test are still happening so its not that people aren't testing, we've got a symptom-less test site in our town now, so people are going along for random tests and the numbers are still coming down.

It feels like we are over the worse for those catching it, but obviously there's a time lag on hospital pressure. Isnt it 3-4 weeks for hospitals?

Hopefully the vaccination programme will keep pace. Theres hope, but as for restrictions, its just not clear if we are going for zero covid cases or just hospitals being easily able to deal with the numbers presenting or zero deaths.

Its impossible to second guess when the restrictions will be lifted without an idea of what the government is aiming for. And I dont think they know either.