Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Links added to OP:

• NHS triage pathways
• NHS triage progression

Request to posters giving a link:
. Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
. Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

Checking in

On bluetooth (technical a bit, so skip if not interested. I delved into it when it came out)

Bluetooth is off by default on phones.
Even according to their guide the user has to turn it on.
There are 2 BL standards, one called Bluetooth Low Energy. NHSx uses this - BLE.

It "looks around" every 8 seconds. And app sends new UID and security passkey every 24 hours to phones.
BLE is used for IOT mainly, like fitbits and any equipment that has an app mainly.

A few thoughts on the app/BLE

• bluetooth leaves you exposed. The easiest is to intercept the signal, decrypt, modify and send it on it's way. As per spec they seem to be using the latest encryption tech. (anecdote: aquarium thermometer app that got hacked then connected to the app on phone, then from then on to wifi and they got everything that was on the business servers/cloud.)

The likelyhood of someone creating an NHSx-like app to intercept data is highly unlikely as so limited data is shared that it is of no real use to anyone accept in very specific cases.

• recorded events (proximity recordings, eg: how many ppl you met who had this app on also and how close were you) are stored locally . And only stored for 28 days on the phone. It doesn't say how long in the db though.... They are uploaded centrally only if user reports symptoms. Then a one off burst of event logs are sent (for an unspecified number of days... )*

• Good news is that BLE is a slightly different technology and it only opens the channel every 8 seconds in this case for a few mseconds only. DAta transfer rate is much higher than in normal bluetooth.
• the other good news is that its energy consumption is much lower than bluetooth in general because of the nature of bursts.

In general the NHSx app is quite safe as hacking it would require a very specific timing and proximity.

*this sounds counter intuitive from a researcher's perspective. The more data points we have the better network graphs can be created and cluster investigation might be easier?

Anyone who has the app: how does it affect battery life in reality?

I haven’t found it’s affected it much. But then my battery life wasn’t very good to begin with so could be I’m not noticing!

It has reduced my battery life I think, I now rarely make it through a day without needing to charge my phone at some point, whereas before I did manage without most of the time.

Not sure if it’s been mentioned but there’s a leaked letter re Wales going into a lockdown 23-9th November. Announcement Monday apparently.

I am not finding it reducing battery life, at least not significant enough to notice. The more other app users you come into contact with the more battery it uses. Because I haven’t been in contact with anyone today, mine hasn’t used any battery. The usage details are:

CPU total 10s
CPU foreground 10
Keep awake 7m 0s
Computed power use 0mAh

@TheSunIsStillShining. Thank you for the explanation! Please can you explain what “Number of keys” means?

the NHS COVID app has been responsible for 5% of my battery use (less than the mumsnet app)

Thanks bigchoc.

I'll try not to derail the thread by banging on about mass gatherings protests.
Just wanted to respond to the issues discussed in the last thread.

People don't magically apparate Harry Potter style to a demo. They travel there and back on busy public transport.

There have also been several cases of ambulances being delayed, due to traffic disruptions resulting from demos over the past couple of years. There are sizeable numbers of people, including vulnerable pensioners, living in deprived communities in central London.

Also like I say. It's really rather pointless protesting in London. It's so everyday no-one takes any notice. If any group genuinely wanted to be noticed, they'd protest somewhere where it actually would het noticed. In the shires perhaps.

@Hmmph

I am not finding it reducing battery life, at least not significant enough to notice. The more other app users you come into contact with the more battery it uses. Because I haven’t been in contact with anyone today, mine hasn’t used any battery. The usage details are:

CPU total 10s
CPU foreground 10
Keep awake 7m 0s
Computed power use 0mAh

@TheSunIsStillShining. Thank you for the explanation! Please can you explain what “Number of keys” means?

Please can you explain what “Number of keys” means? I can't find this phrase in what I wrote.

Did you mean number of days

This is sad, not sure if its already been shared on anywhere, but wonder if this will make a difference to Andy Burnhams stance on the Tier 2 - 3

Its not suprising the Liverpool mayor is taking it so seriously after his brother dying today of COVID

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-liverpool-mayor-says-brother-has-died-after-contracting-virus-12106317

@Hmmph
That usage stat is interesting. Have you been anywhere actually?
The tech is based on broadcasting a signal/service every 8 sec. That shouldn't use CPU, that's fine. 10s CPU usage would mean in my mind that it took your phone 10s to decode other phones replying to the service casted. So I'm asking where you have been to get a gauge of how crowded a place you have to be to invoke 10s cpu. (if that makes sense. And if it's too personal feel free to skip. It's more personal interest than anything else)

@Jenasaurus
I saw that. Very sad.

I'm not sure it will make much difference to Burnham. He's younger than Anderson. He probably won't relate.

I have been in my house and in a graveyard today planting up some bulbs! Two members of my household have the app but I think one has theirs switched off. There were about 3 other people in the graveyard, but they were about 100m away.

This is the details of the exposure check my phone most recently did. It refers to “number of keys”. I was wondering if they were people who had recently tested positive in the country or if they my contacts (unlikely!)

TheSunIsStillShining
there is a rally today with 1000s against lockdown in central london.

@SheepandCow
Is that not breaking tier rules?
Bloody hell it should be!
London really is buggered. It's longer-term economy and the lives and long-term health of it's 9 million residents put at serious risk because of the short-termist greed of a few rich people who live in the shires or tax havens abroad. Khan is doing his best but he's up against it.

I really had to bring this over for comment. I'd love for you to tell Piers Corbyn that you consider what he's doing short-termist greed of a few rich people who live in the shires. He's a prize dickhead right enough, and dangerous with his promotion of so many conspiracy theories, but he would hate who you think the group are.

Number of keys is the number of times your phone did a Bluetooth "handshake" type of exchange of keys. If someone in your house has the app, that'll be quite frequent. (Presuming that you mingle!)

@MRex

I think Piers Corbyn actually does live in the shires? I have no time for him. Climate denier, associates with far right racist holocaust deniers, anti vaxxer conspiracy theorists...

I don't know if he's mad, bad, or both?

Thank you MRex. We do “mingle”

I believe he does live in the shires, yes. He's both mad and bad, but the nastiness runs deeper. I didn't see David Icke in the photos, maybe he's more scared now because he's fat. Actually, it didn't look like there were very many of them at the protest at all, because all the photos keep having the same faces pop up.

I've been off these threads for a week or so as I couldn't keep up! But the government site has changed and the maps seems to be at LA level not MSOA. Can you still get the MSOA maps anywhere? Does anyone know?

You can expand the map to get to the lower levels. On the phone, use your fingers to expand out the map.

@Mrex: thanks for stepping in. :) We actually had a lovely dinner in the meantime with my son proclaiming after discussing the week's news that "the end of covid is as likely here as me winning the lottery".
I did ask him to fill out a lottery ticket first...