Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I completely agree with you @IloveJKRowling. I think that one of the fundamental things about data analysis is thinking critically about what data is collected and released, by whom, and why.

Here in the UK the government have kept a tight grip on data and documentation, releasing some of the most important stuff only reluctantly (for example the Sage minutes). Their tendency is clearly towards secrecy, and I think we need to look critically at that.

FT: "In early October, the global death toll continued to increase daily by an average of 5,200, a similar figure to early May.

Leaders have vacillated between reopening to protect the economy and locking back down to protect citizens."

However, analysis indicates that economies do best when countries keep deaths down to "acceptable" levels,
i.e. so most people feel safe enough to go to work, school, leisure activities

See attached chart of cumulative deaths / million vs fall in 2020 GDP

This "acceptable" level hasn't been studied & quantified afaik and will likely vary from country to country too, probably based on how the first wave went and whether the government seems to have a grip.
Obviously at one extreme, it's likely not beneficial - and not politically / socially accerptable - to have 3 months lockdown because of 10 / 100,000 cases, so there is a balance to find

Asian countries with a different communitarian culture - and in the case of China / HK & VietNam a dictatorship too - have had more success controlling deaths, but mostly via measures that Western societies won't accept.

We should look at the European countries in the top left quadrant of the chart, to see what is transferrable
(low population density and high % single person households are obviously country-dependent)

Tbh if posters such as MRex do leave the thread will be poorer for it.

Oth I’ve found Red’s insight very interesting.

I hope both return,

@ancientgran

Ancientgran that's your interpretation.

I took a totally different one!

Neither are the point though are they. Red came on here and was clearly upset and some people have been unpleasant and she has gone away more upset.

Is that what anyone wants in these times? The govt are certainly doing well at dividing everybody.

Actually I've been to the pub (socially distanced of course). But thats beside the point!

Does anyone in this thread have a job?

"Do not belittle and disregard lived experience"

I don't think anyone has
But also don't belittle those of us who like an oasis of calm data and focus on that
We aren't idiots either

@BigChocFrenzy

FT: "In early October, the global death toll continued to increase daily by an average of 5,200, a similar figure to early May.

Leaders have vacillated between reopening to protect the economy and locking back down to protect citizens."

However, analysis indicates that economies do best when countries keep deaths down to "acceptable" levels,
i.e. so most people feel safe enough to go to work, school, leisure activities

See attached chart of cumulative deaths / million vs fall in 2020 GDP

This "acceptable" level hasn't been studied & quantified afaik and will likely vary from country to country too, probably based on how the first wave went and whether the government seems to have a grip.
Obviously at one extreme, it's likely not beneficial - and not politically / socially accerptable - to have 3 months lockdown because of 10 / 100,000 cases, so there is a balance to find

Asian countries with a different communitarian culture - and in the case of China / HK & VietNam a dictatorship too - have had more success controlling deaths, but mostly via measures that Western societies won't accept.

We should look at the European countries in the top left quadrant of the chart, to see what is transferrable
(low population density and high % single person households are obviously country-dependent)

That's a great chart, thanks

@Dirtystreetpie

Does anyone in this thread have a job?

LOL! I run a business and it's very quiet due to the pandemic. No chance of finding another one, luckily DH's salary pays the bills. So I have plenty of time to MN.

The lived experience is also data! (I feel like my qualitative analysis stats professor just manifested through my keyboard, ha ha)

@Dirtystreetpie

Does anyone in this thread have a job?

& that affects the date, how exactly?

Has this thread turned in to a fest?

Thank you BCF - I'm guilty of not keeping up to date with the links in the OP

Data* although date might be app too as not sure whether anyone on this thread having a job or not, matters one jot.

I'm retired, age 64

An aside re gym safety:

My gym - privately owned - installed new air con and has an App that issues daily updates to us on air quality para,eters
They keep humidity high, ~50% which is well into the recommended range for Covid of 40%+

Ventilation, high ceiling - we have 5.4 m - plenty of floor space for machines, limited class numbers, frequent cleaning, sanitiser everywhere ...
These are all measures that can enable gyms to stay open safely and enable members to stay fit more easily, improving their prospects for surviving Covid plus the next decades

Wednesday is my day off!

I'm a retired doctor. Who now has this going round in my head re BigChocFrenzy, with whom I would happily share a bottle of wine, when this is all over [wine}

Sorry I wrote that post without thinking how goady it’s sounded. It’s not meant that way. I lurk on this and Westminstenders threads, they are invaluable to me but very hard to keep up with and I basically wondering out loud (with my fingers) what people’s situations are on here as the threads move so fast and are so detailed. I struggle to keep up between work, then end up staying up late trying to read what I’ve missed.

I like Red's posts generally but i have to admit I've lost touch with this thread as it becomes less about how to interpret the data. I don't want to prevent any topic being discussed but it's a very different tone now than a few weeks ago - perhaps because the case numbers are staying high and ppl are feeling more desperate, and as the localised lockdowns continue with no real effect on the numbers, we start to analyse the practical situations more than the numbers!

sun I remember the Beatles & Rolling Stones back when McCartney and even Jagger were fresh-faced lads without any wrinkles

I'm a maths / physics STEM PhD retired from a geeky career in R&D
and a gym rat too

I agree, the sheer volume of posts is why i can't keep up and lose the thread. I'm just dipping in and out. Hope i still notice when new data is available (eg the new map of utla, ltla, msoa, which this thread alerted me to)

Actually I've been to the pub Cheers, hope you had a good time.

Today’s data seems late again?

These threads aren’t always about data from both sides of the fence. I do think people are over invested in MN which may not be healthy. Sometimes spending all day, every day online can distort perspectives.

It is interesting seeing the data and the posts from those who critically analyse it. Do keep it up because it is incredibly important.

@Dirtystreetpie

Does anyone in this thread have a job?

I've been made redundant due to the pandemic. Very little chance of finding something that is fully remote.

I have a job.. (putting hand up emoticon)

Where are todays stats ???

Was a little surprised to hear Boris refer to Professor Van Tam as "JVT" in yesterdays briefing. Lack of professional respect for the scientists showing there.

If I was "JVT" I'd have been tempted to retort "Ok Bozza !"

@Dirtystreetpie

Does anyone in this thread have a job?

Self employed wfh but limited hours atm due to low number of childcare hours.

I post intermittently during day whilst looking after toddler and doing whatever, park, playing. I like BigChoc’s approach and this thread particularly. Intelligent people for the most part.

974 posts.... just saying