Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I value democracy above all else

Covid is important, but let's keep it in perspective; it's not the worst thing ever, not as important as maintaining democracy
Without the right to protest, the weak are powerless to influence government - and there is no UK General Election until 2024

Every dictatorship has started with banning protest
Temporarily .....

I have an iphone and don't have an echo.

What I don't understand is why I have regular exposure checks today, with 'provided key count' in the thousands, when I know damn well my phone has been on my bedside table all day and hasn't been anywhere near another phone.

Right, so it's probably an App thing, not device-specific
Doesn't sounds like it interferes with performing its function though

@Motorina

I have an iphone and don't have an echo.

What I don't understand is why I have regular exposure checks today, with 'provided key count' in the thousands, when I know damn well my phone has been on my bedside table all day and hasn't been anywhere near another phone.

.... now that is rather concerning

Is there a support contact to ask ?

How are you all viewing the exposure checks from the app? I can't find where it tells you that information.

I thought exposure checks were when it was “reaching out” to try to find exposures, not that it had actually found an exposure - as they happen all through the day and night, when I am at home

@doublechins under settings, then go into the app there.

It’s not in the app, you need to look in settings - in an iPhone it’s here

Top English councils to watch
(table Richard@RP131 UK)

A few key areas showing a fall in 7-day incidence (indicated by bright green field)
e.g. Nottingham, Liverpool, Burnley, Manchester

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/17/coronavirus-1-million-young-britons-face-jobs-crisis-within-weeks

almost 1 million vulnerable 16- to 24-year-olds who are not in full-time education or employment will face significant barriers to work when the furlough scheme ends this month

The multiple timestamps most probably is that it couldn't establish connection even for a miilisec and then tried again.

Looking at high street recovery tracker for cities & big towns (link in OP):

www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

In the bottom 10 for both footfall & spend:

London, Manchester, Newcastle, Cardiff, Edinburgh, Oxford

Found them. Thank you both for your help

Found the most probable answer to the many keys:

"These identifiers change every 15–20 minutes as well as Bluetooth MAC address in order to prevent tracking of clients by malicious third parties through observing static identifiers over time"

This means that each device gets a new UID every 15-mins so the next time that your phone looks for yoursonsnamehere's phone it will receive a new ide and generate a new key. Like the dynamic IP distribution in theory.

@BigChocFrenzy

[[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/17/coronavirus-1-million-young-britons-face-jobs-crisis-within-weeks]]

almost 1 million vulnerable 16- to 24-year-olds who are not in full-time education or employment will face significant barriers to work when the furlough scheme ends this month

I'm going to be cynical here.... in low level jobs I'd think they would be welcome. the mandatory minimum wage for that age group is bar far the lowest. So for a picker/packer job they are better than any 25+ :(

@BigChocFrenzy
Re: the article. Am I not getting something or does the article really doesn't explain if it's 1m students leaving school or of all off the leaving school students (x mil) 1 m are vulnerable for some specific reason?

Mate just had a message from another friend who works in Warrington in a bar.

'Place is rammed with scousers tonight'

So everything going to plan then....

Some interesting regional graphs by RP131 showing against a 9 day doubling scenario

twitter.com/rp131/status/1317486263969157120?s=21
North west/West Midlands/north east/east appear to be doubling slower than every 9 days; Yorkshire/East Midlands/south west/south east faster, and London seems to be matching the 9 days

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@BigChocFrenzy
Re: the article. Am I not getting something or does the article really doesn't explain if it's 1m students leaving school or of all off the leaving school students (x mil) 1 m are vulnerable for some specific reason?[/quote]
...
Those in that age group, not in education, will be vulnerable because the end of furlough means those in jobs are at risk of losing them
and the dreadful state of the jobs market for new young starters will be worsened by others losing their jobs and competing with them

Historically, those who face a recession right at the start of their working lives, spend years catching up and some may never fully recover the disadvantage of those lost years

@ceeveebee

Some interesting regional graphs by RP131 showing against a 9 day doubling scenario

twitter.com/rp131/status/1317486263969157120?s=21
North west/West Midlands/north east/east appear to be doubling slower than every 9 days; Yorkshire/East Midlands/south west/south east faster, and London seems to be matching the 9 days

... Yep, discussed last thread that the North may be levelling off, while the South is rising

Will we in 3 weeks be worrying about the Southern cities in Tier 3 ? London in a week ?
Whackamole around the country

London is particularly interesting
the situation in London may be an indicator as to how effective current UK immunity levels can be in limiting cases,
as serology studies show London has by far the highest level of antibodies in the country

ONS GB Survey:

Question: “In which way is the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak affecting your life?"

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26#opn

A higher percentage of adults in local lockdown areas reported lack of freedom and independence as their main concern compared with those living outside local lockdown areas

But is that 1 mil all not in ed or jobs or just part of it?
Either it's sloppy journalism or the penny just can't drop in my head.

"Historically, those who face a recession right at the start of their working lives, spend years catching up and some may never fully recover the disadvantage of those lost years"

Were there studies? Is it an actual fact? I believe you without citing studies.
If yes, then surely this would be something the gov would need to focus on and level the playing field for them. Thenagain, it's the gov I'm expecting to do the right thing....

@TheSunIsStillShining

But is that 1 mil all not in ed or jobs or just part of it? Either it's sloppy journalism or the penny just can't drop in my head.

"Historically, those who face a recession right at the start of their working lives, spend years catching up and some may never fully recover the disadvantage of those lost years"

Were there studies? Is it an actual fact? I believe you without citing studies.
If yes, then surely this would be something the gov would need to focus on and level the playing field for them. Thenagain, it's the gov I'm expecting to do the right thing....

.... Yes, I read an economic analysis on studies about the young not catching up for many years if they started in a recession Too late to find it again now

no probs, really I believe you :) i recall something similar from sociology class 2x yrs ago, but had no idea if I read/heard it or jumped to a conclusion in my head. :)

Subtitle to that article is clear enough:

"Sixteen to 24-year-olds who are not in full-time education or employment could face significant barriers to work"

They will be starting off in the jobs market, which is a disaster area atm
Starter jobs in hospitality, leisure, travel etc are buggered and they are competing with others who have fulltime experience & references