Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Institute for Fiscal Studies: A bad time to graduate

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/14816

One group which is going to find the next months and years especially difficult are those entering the labour market this year.

Experience from previous recessions tells us that graduates will be less likely to find work and will start off in lower-paying occupations than they might have expected.

Given the likely scale of the downturn into which they will be graduating it is likely to take at least five, and perhaps ten, years for these effects to wear off.

Young people hit as unemployment rate rises

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-54146833

David Blanchflower et al: Young People & the Great Recession (UK, USA, 2011)

http://ftp.iza.org/dp5674.pdf

All I can say re London is watch this space.
It's a case of deja vu.

Immunity doesn't appear to last for more than around 6 months. Certainly not long-term. Not that 17-20% would make a huge difference. That still leaves millions of unprotected Londoners.

9 million residents, high density housing, huge amounts of deprivation (as noted in the standard article I linked earlier based on ONS data). And one of the world's busiest airports continuing to operate with no restrictions - thousands of passengers travelling through daily on the busy public transport system.

Mayor Sadiq Khan knows this, which is why he's trying to fight for his city.

Fast forward 1 or 2 months and we'll see how London has fared.

MPs in HoC bars flouting the law and Hancock reportedly refusing 30 times to say if he was one of them

ffs, if the govt want the public to follow the rules, then at least enforce them in Westminister
and make sure that all govt ministers follow them

@BigChocFrenzy

Subtitle to that article is clear enough:

"Sixteen to 24-year-olds who are not in full-time education or employment could face significant barriers to work"

They will be starting off in the jobs market, which is a disaster area atm
Starter jobs in hospitality, leisure, travel etc are buggered and they are competing with others who have fulltime experience & references

I think the plight of the middle-aged who've been made redundant, particularly over 50s, is equally concerning. Possibly more so.

I read yesterday a recent study on this. Over 50s left to languish with very little hope of ever finding work again due to age discrimination (not helped by lower minimum wage for younger people). No real help or support available to them.

I wish I could remember where I read it so I could link. Perhaps someone else knows?

@RedToothBrush

Mate just had a message from another friend who works in Warrington in a bar.

'Place is rammed with scousers tonight'

So everything going to plan then....

Perhaps they were on a protest...

The trouble with that would be all the teachers, doctors, publicans, shop assistants, delivery drivers, nurses etc who may succomb to the virus and then society would still suffer. A hospital with less doctor and nurses when they need them most, a school with pupils but not enough teachers to teach them all, people wanting food and other items delivered but not enough delivery drivers etc.
Ah but if it's a 'protest' these people will be immune. Apparently.

Ok I apologise for returning to this. I must stop giving these bloody conspiracy theory protestors more publicity than they ever hoped for!

But really. Going to a mass gathering protests during a pandemic is apparently as essential as travelling to work?! Work - to pay the bills, to buy food and keep a roof over your head? Really??

Like I said. If mass gatherings are allowed regardless of tier level or any other restrictions, what's stopping a group of friends registering as a political or campaign organisation and then taking a placard with them to their trip to the pub? Or an extended family holiday group doing the same? The restrictions are there to prevent a virus spreading. It's not a human being and doesn't care why people are mass gathering.

The restrictions are supposedly there to prevent or contain the spread. That means stopping non essential travel and gatherings.

Work is essential. Waving a placard ranting about vaccines turning us into chimpanzees isn't.

Democracy is far more important than a journey to go to work

You don't realise how important the right of protest is, how important democracy is, until you lose it
Ask the young protestors in Hong Kong

Protests are not a mass gathering for fun, but an essential part of democracy

Even this government realised that in a democracy they had to allow peaceful demonstrations

If you find you are being more authoritarian than Boris Johnson & Priti Patel, then you need to get some perspective about Covid
It is not the most important thing in the world, it doesn't mean we have to surrender everything important to fight Covid

So the protestors are not even breaking the law, if they held to the rules
If they didn't, then they should get fined

I despise conspiracy nutters, but if we start deciding who is worthy of exercising legal democratic rights of protests then that is a very slippery slope to us all losing rights

just a very small question: have you seen these ppl today? They were not adhering to any rules. No SD, no masks.
Ok, let's sat they have the right to protest against covid in the midst of a pandemic, but then why aren't they fined? Each individual should put their money where their mouth is.

I can't compare the situation in Hong Kong to people deliberately not wearing masks ranting about vaccines turning us into chimpanzees.

People need to go to work or they starve or end up homeless. We can have democracy whilst also acknowledging the need to temporarily adjust certain things.

The right to peaceful protest. Arguably a mass gathering in a densely populated city with huge deprivation during a pandemic when a second wave is brewing is not a peaceful act.

Online demos, fine.

I ask in all seriousness. Where do you draw the line? So Dave and his mates can get together, register as a Save Our Local campaign group. Now can they leave their tier 3 area and go to drink in a nearby out of tier pub (as long as they bring placards)?

This is particularly important with an authoritarian govt that keeps hinting it wants to scrap the Human RIghts Act, even leave the ECHR
that is currently lashing out and blaming ordinary people for its mistakes,

but would still be important in fluffy Sweden or new Zealand.

The right to protest is one of the few means that ordinary people have to oppose tyranny
and it's no good waiting until there is tyranny before you defend the democratic right to protest.

If they were that concerned about their 'cause' they'd 'protest' somewhere they'd get noticed. The government doesn't care about yet another protest in London. Like I said protest fatigue. Now if there was a mass gathering/demo in Oxfordshire for example. That might get attention.

Still as I've said. There are alternative non violent means of protest. Probably more effective too given the mass gathering demo fatigue issue.

"So Dave and his mates can get together, register as a Save Our Local campaign group. Now can they leave their tier 3 area and go to drink in a nearby out of tier pub (as long as they bring placards)?"

very very unlikely to go to that trouble - if they are that defiant, they'd just go drinking in a mob anyway
and they have to get permission for a demonstration first, as well

"They were not adhering to any rules. No SD, no masks"

They should have been fined
Since the organisers didn't keep control, that's another 10k for Piers Corbyn or whoever got permission for the demonstration

Same as mobs of drinkers and ravers:
the laws are there and should be enforced

Those of you want to censor conspiracy demonstrators:
Are you actually trying to get them wider support & sympathy ?
because that would be the most likely result of banning their protests

"There are alternative non violent means of protest. Probably more effective too given the mass gathering demo fatigue issue."

Nope
Street protests have always been an easy way of getting attention

Regardless of the effectiveness, it is a democratic right to protest in person

The one thing that would make me say "let Covid rip" would be if SD rules were used by the state to stop all demonstrations against the state

I will give up many things to fight Covid, but not basic democratic rights
not the right to protest against the government, of whatever flavour

If the rule was applied equally across the board - no mass gatherings during a second wave - than I don't see why it would gain more sympathy. If one particular group was banned and not another that would be different.

Right now most ordinary people have more pressing needs. The risk of untimely death, potential long-term disability of Long Covid, and economic devastation of failed Covid containment. How to pay for food, housing, essential bills. I don't expect most have time to sympathise with mass protestors - particularly when the actions of these protestors serve to prolong and deepen everyone's suffering.

England regions 7 day cases / 100,000 (charts COVID-19@UKCovid19Stats)

NE, NW, Yorkshire & Humber rates falling

All other regions increasing rates, but London not by much
W Midlands looks the region to watch, imo

Regions with currently low rates (< 100/ 100k) are increasing too

Street protests gaining attention
Protests are two a penny in London. The vast majority of people don't see any particular cause. All they see is yet another pita disruption. The poor working class of Canning Town are a very example of what most ordinary people think of protests. Their response to XR climbimg on the tube last year. All those people wanted - needed - to do was get to work to feed their kids. That priority remains.

Like I said. If they really wanted to gain attention - for their 'cause', they'd protest/mass gather somewhere where it would actually be taken notice of, because of being a novelty.

And we are in extraordinary circumstances. We can't pretend everything is normal. It's not, and we have to restrict ourselves temporarily however much we don't want to.

It's easy to say keep on as normal from a safe distance. Not so easy for the very deprived at risk communities in the frontline who will suffer as a consequence.

Is that data cases?
I think, particularly with London, it's going to be more telling to watch out for hospitalisations and deaths. In time, it will be interesting to see flu rates too.

Covid fanaticism puts people off
Demonstrations are not against the law, so people shouldn't invent their special additional rules, as happened e.g. on MN in the 1st lockdown

Demonstrations shouldn't have to have majority support to be "allowed"
Or minority groups & causes in the past might never have got off the ground

I don't have hospital rates / 100k for the regions
I'm looking

Yes, in normal times, however much of a pain in the arse, public mass gatherings should be allowed. However ridiculous the 'cause'.

Just like normally people should be able to go to the pub or visit their mum or go on.s large group holiday.

But we're not in normal times. We're in a pandemic - going into a second wave.

We can't have harsh containment restrictions - yet special rules for some, i.e. mass gatherings allowed if they register as a protest. The restrictions need to apply equally to all groups.

@BigChocFrenzy
I apologise. I'm derailing this thread. It's a brilliant resource of data. I said it before but this time l must stick to my word!
I'll agree to disagree. It's interesting considering your viewpoint. I don't disagree the right to protest is important, and we shouldn't police the causes protested about. I just believe that all mass gatherings, protests, included, should not be allowed to go ahead as normal with no adjustments made for the extraordinary circumstances. Temporarily in person mass gatherings are not a peaceful act. Imo. I respect that you disagree.

I'll try to stick to discussing the data!

We will never agree on that

I will never give up democratic rights. It is not negotiable.
Democracy is far more important to me than Covid

In this crisis, with the government repeatedly fucking up Covid & Brexit in parallel, the right to protest is even more important

There will likely be far more important protests in the next few months than these conspiracy nutters

OK, let's call it off, before we get the slow handclap !

returning to data, has anyone found hospitalisations / 100k for the regions ?

I can at most find weekly total cases from a few days back