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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

1000 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 17/10/2020 18:06

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
81
CoffeeandCroissant · 18/10/2020 01:10

New speech from Boris. Grin

BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2020 01:15

Good analysis of paper behind SAGE circuit-breaker

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.13.20211813v1.full.pdf

John Roberts @johnactuary

The paper behind the SAGE view that a circuit breaker (CB) is necessary has been published in pre-print version.
As you might expect it gives several possible scenarios, but lets go through some of the key points first. 1/6 < image 1 >

It notes that the more stringent the restrictions, the lower R (and thus the growth rate) is for the CB period, and the more time is "bought".
It measures this by looking at how many days the pandemic is set back.
But there's another factor to consider...2/6

The faster the underlying growth, the less time you buy, as it doesn't take as long for the virus to get back to the pre-CB point.
But the overall benefit in terms of lives saved is greater, as you've pushed back the very high levels that would otherwise be seen. 3/6

The paper emphasises the need for good public adherence to the measures if they are to be effective, and also notes that from an epidemiological standpoint the best time to undertake a CB is always now, although the half term break minimises the impact on education. 4/6

The current growth rate is around 5% per day,so of all the scenarios, this one for deaths feels about right. < image 2 >
The lines represent CB restrictions in line with what prevailed in Apr, May, Jun & Aug.
The dotted line represents no CB and the Y-axis is daily deaths. 5/6

The paper notes that the impact on infections will be much clearer, but on admissions and deaths will be more blurred due to timing delays.

And of course, it will take at least 3 weeks for there to be any impact on deaths, which will continue to increase in the interim.6/6 ENDS

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2020 01:20

"we consistently find that the optimum time for a circuit breaker is now"

I would be interested in also hearing the views of the economic advisers on this
I suppose that is Sunak and top Treasury civil servants, maybe also Andrew Bailey (Bank of England chair)

Presumably their views are a major reason it hasn't happened yet
Always a tricky balance

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 18/10/2020 01:22

oops images 1 & 2 for that paper have just shown up
Should have been these 2 !

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26
OP posts:
SheepandCow · 18/10/2020 01:22

@BigChocFrenzy

OK, let's call it off, before we get the slow handclap ! Grin
I'm glad we've shaken hands (in a socially distanced manner). Smile

And you've certainly given me food for thought.

Back to data. Thanks for the SAGE post.
Wales are going ahead with a circuit breaker aren't they?

What's happening in Scotland? I wonder whether they will extend their circuit breaker?

RedToothBrush · 18/10/2020 01:25

Its only worth protesting about not being allowed to drink in the t3 area. If your priority is just drinking you don't want to be stopped from doing so by drawing attention to your session!

Re Greater Manchester police. Two things.

Firstly a substantial amount of police funding isn't through central government. Its through local taxation. Greater Manchester's councils are up shit creek and they dont have money to police a t3 lockdown aggressively. If rumours are to be believed they will struggle to maintain the policing levels there currently are because the councils are so skint.

Then there the concept of policing by consent:

The Peelian principles summarise the ideas that Sir Robert Peel developed to define an ethical police force. The approach expressed in these principles is commonly known as policing by consent in the United Kingdom and other countries such as Canada, Australia and New Zealand.

In this model of policing, police officers are regarded as citizens in uniform. They exercise their powers to police their fellow citizens with the implicit consent of those fellow citizens. "Policing by consent" indicates that the legitimacy of policing in the eyes of the public is based upon a general consensus of support that follows from transparency about their powers, their integrity in exercising those powers and their accountability for doing so.

So the idea is that the police are only legitimate in their right to enforce the law because the public agree with the law and allow them to enforce the law.

In a situation where you have every single elected representative in Greater Manchester regardless of party political alignment saying they do not agree with the imposition of a law from Westminster, you have a big problem for peelian principles. In effect this is the people's representatives saying they do not consent to the enforcement of this law. Therefore the local police are obliged under peelian principles not to do so because they have not been given the consent of the people (via their elected representatives).

So its not simply about being answerable to Andy Burnham alone as the top ranking locally elected official, although he controls the policing budget (remembering here concerns arising about whether there may be enough funds to even get to the end of the financial year and pay them all). We know that Manchester was promised more money in April for covid related expenses only for the government to u-turn on this after money had been spent. We know its not getting business rates. We know its not getting significant revenue for Manchester Airport. Put simply how do the police operate if there is no money left for the policing?

So i do think there's two strings to this: the financials and the notion that the police operate on behalf of the public rather than to control the public.

The idea of consent in policing is a liberal one. Its about the police being almost 'one of us' rather than being people who rule us (authoritarian).

If you look at the history of policing in the uk, this is the idea that the police come from their community look after their own communities for the benefit of the community.

Peel's most often quoted principle that "The police are the public and the public are the police."

If anyone wants to read up on the background and history to this then have a read of
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peelian_principles
Peelian principles

Particularly the section which gives the nine principles on which the Metropolitan Police were founded on.

I think its really interesting and its hard to imagine living in this country at a time before policing and what that meant for law and order (clue: it wasn't too nice and it was only the rich and powerful who could enforce the law whilst in effect not being answerable to it themselves - unless someone more powerful than them took a disliking to them breaking the law. Or the entire community organised against you to enforce the law - eg if you murdered someone and the village turned on you. Justice, in this sense, very much, was unequal and not something for the poor)

We do take all these little bits and pieces of our liberal heritage and wisdom hugely for granted.

That we might have a crisis of the police saying they do not have the consent to police a matter as directed by Westminster is therefore one very much of its time and a reflection of the desire of some now to rule by decree and force rather than by consent of the people and for the people.

This would not have happened in 2015. Its happening in 2020 with good reason.

So the letter from Greater Manchester Police Head makes perfect sense.

The government don't own or control the police. Nor does Andy Burnham. Andy Burnham merely directs them for Manchester and on behalf of Manchester.

Police forces in the uk are notable in how they are organised as local forces rather than a centralised organisation. We don't have a single police force. We have numerous local forces who are decentralised and detached from central government.

TheSunIsStillShining · 18/10/2020 02:28

@RedToothBrush
This is quite interesting, had no idea.

Unfortunately all sides have had missteps in the last few days and people on the ground will be getting sick because of that. The mayor confronted a weak and egotistical maniac in front of a crowd to strongarm him into doing the right thing. Weak and narcissistic people don't cope well with being publicly challenged.
Boris didn't have a chance. If he gave in: he loses face + all other areas in T3 will always only go into T3 if they get money with it. Then it might become a race to the bottom, so LAs get more money. And he has no idea how much money that is, where will it be needed, etc.

These people (aka gov) don't like public opposition. They don't know how to deal with it. The worst thing AB could have done is to make it a public war. If he really wanted what's best for ppl living there. I don't know if he is naive, ballsy, simply had enough of behind the curtain dealing or has another agenda.
The political scene in any era and place is an intricate web of Richelieu-s. Use that. Or use civil resistance. Just don't go head to head with someone who is a puppet.
And AB and team had months to strategize over this as it was obvious very early on that this day will come. And predicting Westminster's reaction was not hard at all. *
Now the problem they are facing is that boris can't give in, even if he now wants to without losing face. AB can't back down 'cause he'd be hung out to the first virtual political pole to dry by both party and people.

Where do they go from here? Gov might make concessions, but I'm sure that it will be delayed, in the making, working out the details or other crap. But it will be a lovely potemkin village.
At one point AB will have to give as he (I hope) really doesn't want the ppl of GM to actually suffer in any way or form. So he will be drawing the short straw. He then will be in a position that he gave and has no leverage on westminster.
Unless he has balls and goes down the route that the police tweet suggests to come. But I think/hope he doesn't have the balls to invoke civil unrest. At this point that is the worst idea for this country.

*my personal issue is that this is more kid's throwing tantrums publicly. Even if AB is right in what he is asking for, he still isn't a statesman, but a yelling kid. And that sums up british politics. I wish we had adults to make them go to the corner and divide the bloody chocolate bar.

Piggywaspushed · 18/10/2020 07:20

I see tow problems with the circuit break, messaging wise. This si the first tone :

it will take at least 3 weeks for there to be any impact on deaths, which will continue to increase in the interim.

That will need explaining to the public. I think we will see confusion and outrage about that on MN.

Secondly, if a CB is timed to coincide with half term they will have to work hard with parents and teenagers to ensure they get it and will have to be quite draconian to stop them gathering and gong out an about. You don't have to venture far on MN to see that the biggest acts of non compliance or threated non compliance are : letting kids out to play with mates, visiting relatives , seasonal celebrations such as Halloween, not being able or willing to control behaviour of teens (this ahs always been A Thing on MN).They don't understand some of them the whole issue and have only heard the 'kids don't get it and if they do they aren't ill' bit. As far as many parents are concerned it will simply be a case of Boris ruining their half term plans.

It was a shock to year 11s in my school that our case from last week was actually really ill for a few days. That has been quite sobering for them.

Reastie · 18/10/2020 07:36

In the first wave I believe they’ve now accepted that people often weren’t hospitalised until too late and earlier hospital admission is important. So, by my logic, that would potentially mean more people needing hospitalisation and earlier than in the first wave in future waves (because many people should have been in hospital but weren’t) so hospitals are more likely to be overwhelmed? Or am I missing something and on the wrong track? Maybe they’ll just keep many people at home again even when they should really be in hospital like before.

NeurotrashWarrior · 18/10/2020 08:30

Re the protest discussion; it's notably now just the Covid deniers.

And I expect they're avoiding as many rules / advice as they can anyway.

Other protests and protesters would be very Covid compliant in order to be able to protest.

From what I know of some of them, the government controlling freedoms has been a main issue from the start; one saw the introduction of masks as part of the steps of "mass control." "Just you wait and see" I was told.

So in principle from a psychology POV, it would work against the government to ban protests. More on the fence types would be persuaded of the mythical "real agenda." Which would cause more issues.

There are many rules which are advisory but the vast majority respect them as they're default setting is compliance. As soon as you start being more authoritative, people have a natural reaction to push back. Anyone who's so far been compliant but not really understood the ins and outs might start to question it more.

I did see that reaction among some colleagues when in the NE the very strict no mingling rule was brought in. "I can go to work and meet loads of people but can't see my friends even in the park, what's that about?!" SM is too easy a rabbit hole to fall into these days.

As pp said, BLM was at a different time, less cases and summer etc.

NeurotrashWarrior · 18/10/2020 08:38

This is a very pertinent article regarding the next few years.

I was looking for another one about how Covid denier/ conspiracy theorists tend to have weak numeracy skills.

www.theguardian.com/money/2020/may/13/numeracy-coronavirus-maths-andy-haldane

Hmmph · 18/10/2020 08:53

@RedToothBrush Thank you so much for that brilliant, clear and comprehensive explanation. I had no idea about the basis of British policing. It is so interesting! This is a very important and relevant part of history and should be in the National Curriculum if it isn’t currently.

Autumnleaves200 · 18/10/2020 09:14

Does anyone have an analysis on if what looks like a slowdown at the moment is genuine or due to the changes in reporting of testing? Will we just have to wait a couple of weeks to see if hospital admissions and deaths follow the trend or carry on rising?

BatSegundo · 18/10/2020 09:32

Is there any data being collected about test turnaround times? We had DS1 tested on Wednesday morning and still no results. On a personal level, this has been worrying as he has classic symptoms and I am in the ECV group.

But if this is happening more generally, then it means that contacts are wandering around for days potentially infecting others. It will also put people off testing in the future - this is now our 6th day of self-isolation. This is fine for us as DS1 is too ill to go to school, DS2 is too young for missing school to be a problem and DP and I can work from home. For another family, this would be lost wages, angry employers etc. It's not good enough.

MRex · 18/10/2020 09:34

Changes in the test approach would reduce positivity rates, because those being tested multiple times since March get counted now on the negative tests, but it would actually increase case numbers for people who get repeat positive tests over a matter of weeks (which happens with some in hospital). There will be few enough cases like that to worry about, at the moment.

The slowdown is just a temporary pause in my opinion, because there are way too many people in hotspots in the north of England who have demonstrated they are keen to mix and mingle despite restrictions. The mobility maps are not showing reductions, which backs up that people aren't listening that there is higher risk now. It's nothing like the lockdown period right now, so cases will not slow down in some areas until people see their own friends and family unwell.

Frazzled2207 · 18/10/2020 09:43

@BatSegundo
Yes there is a link to this at the top of the thread the stats come out on Thursdays and broadly are very worrying.
Agree entirely - is unsustainable. Massively annoying for you but other families might just not bother getting a test in the first place. I will be as responsible as I can but I am self employed and only get paid if I go out to work.
We’ve coped ok so far but I just can’t afford to self
Isolate for a few days “just in case” every time a member of my family turns positive. If testing did come back in 24h every time then I’d be far more likely to.
The government seems to totally have its head in the sand about this issue.
Capacity for testing however is on the rise and you’d hope that as there is more capacity individual labs will get less busy and thus will be able to turnaround quicker.
Who knows though.

cathyandclare · 18/10/2020 09:44

It could be that the infection has spread rapidly through the sociable, higher- risk parts of the student population. This was picked up by extensive testing. There was >40% infection prevalence in one hall in Manchester a couple of weeks ago. Many will have already had the infection now. Spread outside that population has been shown in the government slides, but is likely to be a little slower ( hopefully)

alreadytaken · 18/10/2020 09:54

You'd hope that in tier 3 places, or those that should be tier 3, there would be enough sane people being ultra cautious to bring the rates down again. Hospital admissions will lag case numbers by at least a week but probably longer - because the young get infected first then pass it to older people, who get sick enough for hospital admission a week later. So 2 weeks probably before the difference is useful.

American health care is struggling too e.g. abcnews.go.com/US/kansas-city-hospitals-overwhelmed-forced-turn-ambulances-covid/story?id=73653825

Sunshinegirl82 · 18/10/2020 09:58

@Frazzled2207 @BatSegundo

We had to isolate this week as DS2 had a cough. I was 90% sure it was a cold but we got him tested to be sure. Took 48 hours which seems almost the minimum timeframe for results at the moment. Result was negative.

I write to my MP about it and to be fair he did respond, demand is outstripping supply etc etc. but I honestly think this is a huge problem. I'm very conscious of the importance of testing but I have to say in the future I will think twice before embarking on testing with any "borderline" symptoms.

To my mind, whether tier 2 can only meet 6 people outside rather than inside etc etc etc will make absolutely no difference if the fundamentals of testing are not working. It should be the government's number 1 priority.

alreadytaken · 18/10/2020 10:00

Those who ignore the restrictions may qualify for a Darwin award

Fitness coach Dmitriy Stuzhuk has died, according to the following statements posted on social media on October. 17, 2020.

” Socialist Voice on Twitter: “Influencer who said coronavirus does not exist has died after contracting it Fitness coach Dmitriy Stuzhuk, aged just 33, warned his one million social media followers that coronavirus is not a short-lived disease before his condition rapidly deteriorated ”

MRex · 18/10/2020 10:01

whether tier 2 can only meet 6 people outside rather than inside etc etc etc will make absolutely no difference if the fundamentals of testing are not working
That's not correct actually. The point is for people who are unknowingly infectious to spread to less people. Testing helps identify some early. Social distancing reduces infections from the much higher number of unknown cases. Mathematically, at this point social distancing will have by far the larger impact.

BatSegundo · 18/10/2020 10:03

Thanks @Frazzled2207

Looking at that, for the week to 7th October, most people were getting their results in 24--48 hours. Assuming similar for this week, it would suggest that we're an outlier. But since the data available only gives the median time (28 hours) there's no way to tell how many outliers there are.

NeurotrashWarrior · 18/10/2020 10:41

To my mind, whether tier 2 can only meet 6 people outside rather than inside etc etc etc will make absolutely no difference if the fundamentals of testing are not working. It should be the government's number 1 priority.

I think it makes a huge difference to general behaviour.

Having gone through a tighter restriction it changes everything about how you interact with many separated people and also your general sense of security.

NeurotrashWarrior · 18/10/2020 10:44

You're also going to slightly reduce the amount of other viruses caught and shared which impacts testing availability a little, as you're less likely to test for symptoms that end up being another virus.

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