Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Boris referring to Professor Van Tam as "JVT" is not being matey, because it can never be reciprocal
He's deliberately showing who is "staff" and who is "boss"

It is concerning that they haven't even started the update

Just waiting for UK & England totals

Scotland
1,739 cases
28 deaths

Wales
962 cases
14 deaths

NI
1,039 cases
5 deaths

PHE consolidation:
94 hospital deaths that occurred over 7 dates:

They’ve started updating it

26668 and 191 deaths

26688

UK today

(previous days in brackets)

Cases 26,688 ...... (21,331 18,804 16,982 16,171 15,650 18,980 19,724 17,234 13,972, 12,872, 15,166, 13,864)
Deaths 191 ........( 241 80 67 150 136 138 137 143 50 65 81 87)

That’s another fairly big jump in cases isn’t it

I've actually noticed that posts exhorting people to stop posting whatever they've been posting usually backfire and end up with a load of data-less argument.

Whereas people who actually post about data usually manage to bring the thread back to the data.

Do as I do is usually more effective than do as I say. (The Uk government probably need to take this on board too since they're not even doing the very basics of what they promised - functional test and trace)

22948 in England according to the data file. 13895 relating to 19th Oct so perhaps results processing in starting to speed up - all good only with a highly efficient track and trace

@SeekingAnswers3

That’s another fairly big jump in cases isn’t it

.... Trend continuing upwards, but Richard's overlaid doubling curves suggest increase overall may be slowing slightly

Last 7 days have had 134,606 which is an increase of 24,234 (22.0%) over thee previous 7 days

781 cases in Leeds today, usually in the 477 yesterday. Not helpful when there are discussions about W Yorks going to Tier 3.

Is there a new thread link please?

That’s almost a 10% positivity rate. :(

4600 cases in north west on the 19th which is remarkable and higher than last week - usually the bulk of he numbers come in 4-5 days late. I do hope this is clearing a massive backlog and there isn’t going to be another 4600 cases in nw attributed to the 19th tomorrow.

ffs, noone has asked red to stop posting !

Some of us have just replied to her criticism of concentration on data, that some of us prefer that,
but have not criticised her for analysing things at length

It's coming up to thread 27 and I'm fucking sick of these bunfights and inventions of victimisation

A group of you jumped on in September that seem to think the threads are shit
So atart your own

== > I won't bother to start the next thread for a few days, so you can do your own thing

@Worriedmum999

Is there a new thread link please?

... NO

because I'm too fed up with the fucking bunfights

Nooooo 🙈

This and R4 are the only bastions of sanity.

Dammit!

I don’t blame you though

@boys3

22948 in England according to the data file. 13895 relating to 19th Oct so perhaps results processing in starting to speed up - all good only with a highly efficient track and trace

Yes, that was the thing that stuck out to me -a significant proportion from only 2 days ago. Which happened the other day I think - Richard @rp131 on Twitter noted it - which would support, hopefully, speeding up of results.

I suspect it might also mean the 19th will end up with a big total in a few days time.

A data-related aside here: I'm partially sighted (and also have a job ha!) and I find a lot of the data is presented during the governmental updates is almost impossible for me to access as a visually impaired person.
Those heat maps - I hate them, my sight is not good enough to distinguish the colour graduation.

Before I fire off a snitty email, is there anybody else with
visual impairments posting on this thread who's finding the presentations hard?

Cattermole I'm just old with eyesight deteriorating but yes I find it difficult, I'm having to go and stand close to the TV to make them out.

I skim read your threads to read the interesting bits, and ignore the bunfights. Please carry on

I think a lot of people came over when the 'worried about coronavirus' series of threads stopped. They'd been around since February.
FWIW I enjoyed lurking on both and find the data thread really useful and hope it does continue.

I can't find the link sorry but I thought of this thread (and BCF) when I read about the two week circuit breaker in Berchtesgadener Land. It was said to be because cases had exceeded 270 per 100k and "it was no longer possible to keep up with tracing contacts".
It made me wonder if there is a level beyond which T&T is hopeless regardless of how much money is spent / how incompetent the system.