Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 26

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 26 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard R, deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - by postcode, 4 nations, English regions, LAs
Interactive 7-day rolling cases map click on map or by postcode
UK govt pressers Slides & data
SAGE Table Interventions with impacts and R
Imperial UK weekly tables & extrapolations LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance - Tuesdays
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
UK testing and NHS England track & trace - Thursdays
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
ONS England, Wales & NI Infection surveillance report - Fridays
ONS Datasets for surveillance reports
Our World in Data UK test positivity
R estimates & daily growth UK & English regions - Fridays
Modelling real number of UK infections February in first wave

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
PHE COVID Clinical Risk Factors Non-respiratory by region, area, district etc
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases - Thursdays
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery
NHS Triage Dashboard Pathways - triages of symptoms
NHS Triage Dashboard Progression - # people pillar 1&2, # triages

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@SheepandCow

What a world we live in where the right to mass gather protest in person, travelled to on busy public transport, during a pandemic trumps the right to life, the right to health (risks of Long Covid), and the right to a functioning economy.

Again. Why 'protest' somewhere where protests are so commonplace no-one notices. If you want to draw attention to your 'cause' why not do it somewhere it would be noticed (because of being so unusual)?

@ceeveebee I'm sure Andy Burnham can very easily sort something out so that he can legally say he's 'protesting'.

.... What a world we live in where some people want to take away the right to protest

Losing that right would scare me more than Covid

[quote cathyandclare]BLM protest report:
www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/06/30/black-lives-matter-protests-did-not-cause-an-uptick-in-covid-19-cases[/quote]
BLM happened at a different stage of the pandemic. Many also wore masks. This far right conspiracy theory lot today are deliberately not wearing masks. They're 'protesting' today against reality.

Cases were lower than. It was just after lockdown and measures had made an impact on numbers.

It was also in warmer weather - which seems to play a role.

Now we're heading into a bad second wave, cases rapidly rising (certainly in London), and hospitals including ICU are filling up.

Frontline doctors and nurses and other HCP are begging for containment measures.

Economic experts have warned about failing to contain.

SAGE have warned about the situation spiralling out of control.

Totally agree. It’s an exception for a very important reason. We do not live in a totalitarian state.

Once you accept the democratic right to protest you can’t then overturn it.

It’s very simple. I wouldn’t protest these days as there’s nothing I need to protest about but there’s something about people wanting to take this away that makes me feel strongly.

Stats Communication:

Spiegelhalter & the Winton Centre have launched a new tool to help science or health journalist & others to communicate a study

realrisk.wintoncentre.uk

"RealRisk is suitable for anyone working to communicate research findings from the medical & social sciences to a broad audience - journalists, press officers, healthcare professionals and others."

Perhaps I'm in the minority. Putting the right to life, health, and a functioning economy before the right to protest mass gather. It would be interesting to see the views of the deprived communities in the frontline of Covid risk vs others who live a safe distance from the increased risks. I wonder if they'd change their minds if Piers brought it to their own doorsteps (when their hospitals were filling up).

The 'argument' for a right to 'protest' aka mass gather during a pandemic could equally apply to any Covid restrictions. Why the right to protest then but not the right to go to the pub ( at any time you want) or the right to have a very large wedding or the right to have a family reunion 50 membrr coach load holiday etc.

We either take containment measures or we don't.

@Hmmph

This is the details of the exposure check my phone most recently did. It refers to “number of keys”. I was wondering if they were people who had recently tested positive in the country or if they my contacts (unlikely!)

Here is a link which explains that provided key count is the number of positive tests the app has been notified of and matched key count is the number of those positive people who you came into contact with iyswim.

faq.covid19.nhs.uk/article/KA-01297

That article about more cases north of the thames quotes "a PHE official" suggesting 10% of Richmond's cases are students living elsewhere. This is interesting to everyone on student-postcode-watch.
(Idiotically, they also don't appear to realise that a lot of Richmond is south of the Thames because it is both north and south).

Yikes @ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough, that's complete bollocks in the NHS article. Keys work like this: en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exposure_Notification

% Positive - Change

Ed Conway at Sky has made me think again about the change that was made to the official calculation of % positive in England

mobile.twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1316750679868952583

It did indeed suddenly make England look much better.
Suddenly.

The old method was the number of positive cases as a % of tests, shown in graph 1
With rising cases, this could likely soon have shown England was worse than France & Spain

The new method makes England look a lot better than both countries, see graph 2

and is described in an obscure footnote in

www.gov.uk/government/publications/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-methodology/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-methodology

see pic 3

To compare countries now, we need to know if other countries do anything like this, or if it is just Made in England

@SheepandCow

The 'argument' for a right to 'protest' aka mass gather during a pandemic could equally apply to any Covid restrictions. Why the right to protest then but not the right to go to the pub ( at any time you want) or the right to have a very large wedding or the right to have a family reunion 50 membrr coach load holiday etc.

We either take containment measures or we don't.

... The right to a pub is not essential to democracy

The right to protest is

There will be a country after Covid
I'd like it to still be a democratic one

@ceeveebee

Perhaps, on a data thread, we should try to find actual data about the risk of transmission from outdoor protests rather then simply express opinions?

We also need actual data on the indoor transmission risks. The busy public transport used to get to and from the mass gathering (and public loos etc).

It's not Harry Potter. They didn't magically apparate there.

The government seems to think public transport is a risk. The guidelines urge us to avoid non essential travel.

Why are the exposure checks on my list all in pairs?

re public transport:

Demonstrations are essential, at least as essential as J Bloggs getting to their office Monday to Friday every week

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Why are the exposure checks on my list all in pairs?

... Your App has an echo Unless you kept meeting twins

Could you tell us your phone type ?

Has anyone else come across this ?

@BigChocFrenzy - Ed Conway may not have noticed, but I saw the note in the surveillance report about the change and posted it in the last thread (or two threads ago, wherever we were at). We'd been saying for some time that it made no sense that someone with a negative test in April should not be counted as a new test in September. It was making Scotland's test numbers look ridiculous.

I'll have to agree to disagree.
I don't want to derail the thread.

I value the right to life and health (including for deprived high density communities) above the right to mass gather.

And, going to the pub arguably is more important to sustaining a country - it's economy and society. It's supporting what is often the life blood of local communities. Important for social interaction and mental health.

If we want to save the economy and lives (all lives and not just affluent shire dwellers) we need to accept that short-term restrictions are required. It's that simple.

Separately, the protestors aren't very bright. Aside from me banging on about them (stupidly giving them undeserved oxygen of publicity) people barely notice London protests. They certainly don't notice the cause. There's so many they all blur into one. A protest in Piers Corbyn's local area. Now that would get attention.

Thank you Christmas and MRex. No wonder I am confused! I can’t actually understand the Wikipedia article either sadly. I was just hoping I had found some interesting personal data, but clearly not!

I have also compared with the other householder members apps- some times we have the same number of keys at, for example, 2pm ish. And other times we have completely different numbers of keys, even though we have all been in exactly the same places at the same time.

Mine are mostly not in pairs, but sometimes are.

Sorry, I don’t want to derail this wonderful thread with the in-depth workings of the NHS app.

@SheepandCow

Ok so basically we might as well have no restrictions whatsoever. No tiers. Nowhere closes, everyone does what they want, Covid runs wildly out of control but it doesn't matter because anyone breaching guidelines can say it was a protest.

And in Manchester all Andy Burnham has to do is say he's protesting against Covid. Boom. No tier, no restrictions.

The trouble with that would be all the teachers, doctors, publicans, shop assistants, delivery drivers, nurses etc who may succomb to the virus and then society would still suffer. A hospital with less doctor and nurses when they need them most, a school with pupils but not enough teachers to teach them all, people wanting food and other items delivered but not enough delivery drivers etc.

BCF - I have an iPhone and looking back through it’s actually more strange, sometimes there are lots all at the same time, although mainly they’re in pairs as per my first photo.

On the 8th October at the time of all these checks I was alone in the house (I know for certain because I was home working and had a teams meeting that’s still in my diary!)

@GetAMoveOnTroodon

Why are the exposure checks on my list all in pairs?

I have exactly the same - in pairs. I’m wondered whether it’s due to my DH having the app, or one of my other devices (my iPad perhaps?)

Actually I have just checked a day when I had gone to the office and it still does it in pairs all day so can’t be either of those reasons!

I wonder if the echo is an iPhone thing or on all devices

No, we have it on Android phones here.