Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Links added to OP:

www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

Request to posters giving a link:
. Please do so in full, so people can see in advance what they are clicking
. Also at least a brief title so we know what the link is about

That last one was fast! Thanks BigChoc

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy! :)

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy

Thanks @BigChocFrenzy

To carry on from last thread and schools - there are far too few external places for hire to make a real difference

Indie Sage keep recommending using community spaces and so they obviously don't believe this to be true, and have professors involved who should have access to data about what is likely to be available.

I do find it difficult to believe that Italy has vastly more suitable community space than the UK - they have managed it (happy to be proven wrong with actual stats).

I feel that despite evidence that some schools managed to stick to WHO recommendations in the summer term, there is this defeatist attitude of 'we just can't' and I can't say how frustrating it is knowing how well my DD1s school did it in the summer!

Thank you.

Of course there are enough external spaces to hire.

Most of them are going out of business right now because the market for venue hire has dried up! Community centres are struggling. Theatres, gyms and leisure centres (often with large halls and smaller rooms), church halls. Basically anything that would have been hired out in the past for groups, conferences, events.

That's ok maybe if u live in an urban area. But what about village schools? There may be a village hall but that's one (not so big) space.... not going to help a great deal.

And round here they are actually being used for hire. Groups have restarted and with covid secure cleaning you can't just squeeze things in back to back.

This looks like what we are expecting now tomorrow:

www.itv.com/news/2020-10-11/coronavirus-what-will-the-new-covid-19-three-tier-system-look-like?fbclid=IwAR1cL61nTZKrri_m_DRwWQxMQ0jEGuKgfq_fwLra9nwM3nTjfOlqAgLlr7U

Tier Three, will have four main characteristics.

a) Pubs and restaurants will be closed for all business except takeaways. That will be a legally enforceable rule.

b) Local people will be asked - as guidance rather than a legally enforceable rule - to only make essential journeys within a Tier Three area.

c) People living within a Tier Three area will be urged not to leave the area, unless it is absolutely necessary. Again that will be guidance.

d) And people living outside a Tier Three area will be asked not to travel to a Tier Three area unless essential, and they will be urged not to stay overnight. Again that will be guidance.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54499963

Merseyside is expected to be the only part of England to face the tightest restrictions under the new "three tier" system due to be revealed on Monday.

and

The Liverpool City Region includes the local authority districts of Halton, Knowsley, Sefton, St Helens and Wirral, as well as Liverpool.

and

It was thought Manchester may be included in Tier 3, but the BBC understands there have been no contacts between ministers and political leaders in Greater Manchester since Friday night.

There's talk tonight that they believe Manchester MAY have peaked.
www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/manchester-past-coronavirus-peak-just-19087258
Is Manchester past its coronavirus peak - just as the new lockdown looks set to come into force?

The latest figures show the number of positive cases appears to be falling significantly

The latest figures released on Sunday evening show the infection rate in Manchester is now 477 cases per 100,000 people compared with 582 a week ago.

In total, there were 2,641 cases in Manchester in the week ending October 8 - that's 292 fewer than the previous.

The fall from the peak, the week ending October 3, is as high as 18 per cent.

This may explain why there is more hestitancy over Manchester (although the positivity rate is still through the roof)

(Warrington which was put into restrictions with the rest of Liverpool, St Helens and Halton isn't mentioned at all here and there's nothing on local news sites, but it should be noted that Halton is part of the same NHS Trust as Warrington so its very possible probable it could also be included although it isn't part of Liverpool City Region cos Westminster isn't very good with maps. The local council have made a point of saying they don't want to be included but then they weren't invited to the No10 discussions, only the City Mayors were...).

WHO warning against more lockdowns

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/world/world-health-organisation-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-recommending-against-lockdowns/

Dr David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to
stop "using lockdowns as your primary control method" of the coronavirus.
.....
"Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,"
he said.

"We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,"
Dr Nabarro told The Spectator.

"The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted,
but by and large, we'd rather not do it.

red The closures are law

but b) to d) are just "guidance" not law
I wonder if this was advised by the behaviour unit, or by the police saying it couldn't be enforced
Or just practical politics

The question will be whether this guidance has much effect,

Thank you

Another thread! Would love this to stay on topic.
@boys3 posted a great chart on the last thread showing test positivity rates per LA - please boys3 could you link to where you got these from/the data behind them?

Many thanks! I live between a few LAs and one shows them on their weekly Council website report, and one doesn't.

Thank you op!!

Re Italy and dc... Well! Isn't that the truth? I ll never forget being on the plane to Italy several times when dc was little, brits stiffened... Dc crying, the Italians on the plane would smile, distract her... Make clucking noises! So much more child friendly and I remember the train in Florence had a child seat!

What is the sheer belligerence to be flexible to school?
Is it a punishment of the unions who seemed to advocate agaisnt working during lock down?

It's bizzare.
Covid and schools isn't a known quantity yet, and instead of opening up information and increasing it, it seems that information is closing down.
I'm dreading a turn in the weather I really am.

Totally hear say but I was told in the local area icu there are 17 patients

@IloveJKRowling

Thanks *@BigChocFrenzy*

To carry on from last thread and schools - there are far too few external places for hire to make a real difference

Indie Sage keep recommending using community spaces and so they obviously don't believe this to be true, and have professors involved who should have access to data about what is likely to be available.

I do find it difficult to believe that Italy has vastly more suitable community space than the UK - they have managed it (happy to be proven wrong with actual stats).

I feel that despite evidence that some schools managed to stick to WHO recommendations in the summer term, there is this defeatist attitude of 'we just can't' and I can't say how frustrating it is knowing how well my DD1s school did it in the summer!

... I would like to see stats from Indie SAGE that there are spaces available

since they are making the suggestion

People keep saying UK schools are different to other countries
It may also be that UK spaces for hire are fewer e.g. less govt support for libraries, community halls

@MotherOfDragonite

Of course there are enough external spaces to hire.

Most of them are going out of business right now because the market for venue hire has dried up! Community centres are struggling. Theatres, gyms and leisure centres (often with large halls and smaller rooms), church halls. Basically anything that would have been hired out in the past for groups, conferences, events.

Let me categorically tell you there are not enough community spaces in the area I live.

The local schools actually looked into it (friend works there and said they did explore the option at one point as a worse case scenario) but the problem was lack of enough suitable premises, basic staffing for smaller classes and H & S requirements around access and staffing.

The local primary schools could have potentially used the high school for space, but they worked out that they couldn't cover the staffing. It wasn't a case of 'just needing a couple more TAs'. There are no more TAs. The school can't get cover for the ones they currently have at the moment, when they've had to take time off so far this term.

But obviously the high school is open so thats not an option anyway.

And if the primary schools only option was the local high school then where the fuck is the high school supposed to go?

Also say you have 3 community spaces but they only have one hall, you can only put one class in them. But you can't have one teacher on site alone in case something happens. You also have to ensure the building is secure, but has suitable fire exits and the kids can't just wander out and straight onto a road (schools have enclosed fences and gates remember). You can't just use any old large space or office.

Then therea the issue of multi locations and siblings - how do parents manage that. Especially if you have classes spread out over a large area or different parts of the borough where there is more space that could be hired.

The distance to a more urban location with more spaces makes it impossible to do that because there were issues with accessibility and kids getting to and from school.

Anyway suggesting the idea is possible in the uk does not live in an area which is either semi rural or suburban. Not everyone lives in built up areas.

That's ok maybe if u live in an urban area. But what about village schools? There may be a village hall but that's one (not so big) space.... not going to help a great deal.

And round here they are actually being used for hire. Groups have restarted and with covid secure cleaning you can't just squeeze things in back to back.

I suppose it depends on the village, we have the old village hall, church hall, chapel hall, of course the school has a hall and a gym then there is a function room at the pub. I think that would give every class in the school the opportunity to split in two except for reception but they have two areas anyway so they could easily split. It would mean the play group/pre school would lose the village hall though.
Maybe not every village could do it but why should that mean places that can do it are stopped by the Dfe or whoever.

The latest figures released on Sunday evening show the infection rate in Manchester is now 477 cases per 100,000 people compared with 582 a week ago.

Whilst I’d love this to be true, Manchester Evening News has made the mistake of not accounting for the time lag properly. There will be more cases added to 8 and 7 October over the coming days. The rate for the last complete week ending 6 October is 549, so it is down, but only by about 5%.

There is now a group of hospitality businesses, led by Sachs Lord (night time economy adviser for Manchester) threatening a judicial review of the closures of hospitality due to the lack of evidence that they are a driver of transmission

twitter.com/sacha_lord/status/1315373502233485313?s=21

@MotherOfDragonite

Of course there are enough external spaces to hire.

Most of them are going out of business right now because the market for venue hire has dried up! Community centres are struggling. Theatres, gyms and leisure centres (often with large halls and smaller rooms), church halls. Basically anything that would have been hired out in the past for groups, conferences, events.

I'm thinking of our Richmond area. There are actually no community places around. Some churches, but even they are dispersed more than in other places. Thinking of my son's primary: it was next to the Kew Crematorium and the Kew waste recycling center :) The first is not really suitable, although kids went every year for a whole gardening day.

Well spotted about the Manchester Evening News slip up with lag

Tier 3 sounds like what we have in the Central Belt. Plus in the whole of Scotland, we're not to meet up with people more than 1 other household, to a maximum of 6.
Traveling is discouraged, as is non-essential use of public transport, but I think it's not been banned, so people can still travel and go on holiday in the October school holidays.

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-city-region-pubs-closing-19087320
Liverpool City Region pubs set to close but restaurants expected to stay open

Metro Mayor has stressed 'a deal isn't a deal until it is agreed' but details of expected restrictions have emerged tonight

Reports suggest gyms, betting shops and casinos will also be told to shut their doors.

There has been some pushback from local figures to try and allow pubs that serve food using table service to be exempt but it's not clear if this has been agreed to at this stage.

sigh

@Perihelion

Tier 3 sounds like what we have in the Central Belt. Plus in the whole of Scotland, we're not to meet up with people more than 1 other household, to a maximum of 6. Traveling is discouraged, as is non-essential use of public transport, but I think it's not been banned, so people can still travel and go on holiday in the October school holidays.

... What is compliance like for those activities that are guidance only, not law ?

Do the police stop people at all for breaking guidance ?

I get the impression from following my own 'local news' paper earlier this year this is fairly common. Just stating that day's figures and referring to the figures stated on previous days, rather than the restated ones for those days (if that makes sense!). It's why I no longer follow my local news!

Thanks for all the Richmond news, btw - my DH is planning to visit there and we looked a week or so ago at the case numbers and they looked pretty good. Not sure now what the situation is!

I live in a village with a small C of E junior school. There are 3 churches, a church hall, youth room, chapel, chapel hall, village hall with several rooms for hire, several restaurants and hotels with under-used conference rooms and also shops that have sadly shut.

Normally there are activities in the village hall, but mostly attended by retired people, and many have not restarted.

The church buildings are not much used in the week.

There would be scope to distance but it would take planning.

The classes have a teacher and a TA, so potentially could split.

I think secondary school would be harder to do this with (but they might have more potential for distance learning)