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Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

975 replies

BigChocFrenzy · 11/10/2020 21:52

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

Our STUDIES Corner

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

OP posts:
Thread gallery
45
littleowl1 · 12/10/2020 09:26

Apologies if this has been linked before.
If this is accurate and kept up to date, it is a useful chart to check restrictions (although no mention of watchlist status - unfort).

visual.parliament.uk/research/visualisations/coronavirus-restrictions-map/?long=-3.8702344894386442&lat=54.17059926699176&zoom=5&showmore=1

I hope they just come out today and officially cancel the watchlist. I suspect this three tier traffic light system will replace it anyway. It would be a bit too confusing otherwise.

I saw online that Boris conference is at 6pm but I'm just wondering if he will be spilling the beans on the main elements in parliament during the day and if so anyone know what time roughly? I'm not a political expert but have noticed he usually details the main elements live in parliament around lunchtime and then the conference follows that evening.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2020 09:31

I don't want to stop all talk about schools, but there should be a balance between schools and other issues

MN Coronavirus threads are dominated by school threads, so there is plenty to choose from

The problem with so much discussion here about schools is the lack of data to discuss, which makes it very difficult on a numbers & data thread

I do wonder why the DfE cannot collate weekly data at least for England,
e.g. separate numbers of staff & school children with positive Covid tests
numbers of classes sent home that week
numbers of schools closed that week

It looks imo like sheer incompetence and lack of initiative frather than any conspiracy of silence

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 12/10/2020 09:32

@cathyandclare

I do think you are just likely to drive the alcohol related issues underground. And with a lack of enforcement that helps no one anyway

Liverpool speakeasies anyone? Grin

Very very likely.

Prohibition didn't work.

Liverpool culturally has an attitude of two fingers up to authority and Westminster in particular and I do think if you tell scousers their pubs are shut when Mancs are not and Cockneys are not you are feeding into something thats likely to end badly.

Theres still a real legacy from the Thatcher years and the Hillsborough disaster which unfortunately I do believe is relevant. (And we know that 30% unemployment rates traditionally does lead to civil unrest in just about any political setting).

Im not convinced the mood is being read terribly well by politicians tbh.

If compliance is to blame you need to increase enforcement.

If its not lack of enforcement but setting which is to blame you cant keep pubs which serve food open but close gyms and bars.

I await to see what the final decision here is, but the rumour creates this problem over the argument over where the issue lies which i think will undermine what they are trying to achieve unfortunately.

The behavioural science on this matters hugely.

GetAMoveOnTroodon · 12/10/2020 09:35

According to the commons schedule, 3.30 looks likely.

2.30 prayers
Afterwards oral questions education secretary
3.30 urgent questions, ministerial statements (if any)

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2020 09:37

If it helps, I have found a bit more data and expert opinion in the WSJ,
who have a table on relative class sizes from the OECD:

WSJ: Schools in Europe

https://www.wsj.com/articles/to-keep-schools-open-as-covid-surges-europe-isolates-infected-students-11599757836

[Germany:]
Authorities worked to reassure staff about the safety of returning.

If teachers refused to return to work,
a health assessment was offered to reassure them about their risk level if they contracted the disease.

The percentage of teacher absenteeism went from double digits to between 2% and 5% as a result,
according to Andreas Schleicher, director of education for the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Any infected students or teachers are quarantined, along with their contacts.

Only a handful of German schools closed down completely at the end of last school year
and have closed so far this fall.

“I don’t think anybody would do [school closures] again,”

said Mr. Schleicher,
referring to European schools in general.

“It’s so much easier to close schools than reopen them.”

The emphasis on closing schools only as a last resort has come amid mounting evidence that children play a limited role in spreading the virus,
said Russell Viner, president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health in the U.K.

“We’ve always known that schools are good at transmitting bugs ...but the truth is

  • from the evidence we have from multiple countries around the world -

that schools are not places that transmit Covid very well,”

Prof. Viner said.

Some research, however, indicates children may be carriers of the coronavirus just as much as adults,
and the researchers behind those findings suggest children are likely capable of spreading it, too.

An OECD survey of 1,370 teachers, principals and government officials in 59 countries found that 81% expected quarantine measures would be used in future outbreaks.

Only 13% said the entire school would close.

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24
OP posts:
IceCreamSummer20 · 12/10/2020 09:38

However, these are data & stats threads, with analysis & comment on that data. Losing that focus on numbers here would lose the whole point of calling them "Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread xx"

@BigChocFrenzy I do agree - I would definitely want to see the analysis, the data as the core of any discussion. I guess, just my penny’s worth, I am so impressed with yourself and others here - that I sometimes wonder if the minute analysis of whether cases are up or down on a daily basis etc in different UK areas - is the best use of such fantastically intelligent and pragmatic minds. Not that this should go away altogether.

It’s just that we know cases are going to keep recircling up and down until we get a vaccine. We know this. What is severely lacking is intelligent and pragmatic minds to analyse and share how we manage this. Using numbers, graphs and data of course!

Honestly I wish this thread were SAGE, PHE and the government. We’d be in such a better place if it were! Wink

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2020 09:41

Definitely we shouldn't obsess about a single day's figures
(but it is human to be worried about thousands more cases being found !)

The "lag" in some recent figures can give a misleading picture too

The rolling 7-day averages of days with complete data are very useful for trends and to help tentaive predictions,
much more reliable than single days

OP posts:
IceCreamSummer20 · 12/10/2020 09:42

Also just to share on management of schools and Universities in Ireland:

  • Secondary schools all students and teachers were masks
  • School buses - all students and drivers wear masks and extra buses being bought to ensure 50% less occupancy
  • Universities - almost all online for this term and most students living at home
Case numbers are still going up however most data points to Direct Provision Centres (who often work in nearby meat factories) and restaurants as well as homes as drivers of risk. Young people predominantly.
MRex · 12/10/2020 09:44

Thanks for the Independent link about enforcement @RedToothBrush, it really does look like an issue. Pubs and restaurants should be closed down who aren't following the guidance, rather than closing all of them in endless local lockdown, it simply isn't fair on good business owners.

This thread has never ignored schools; when there's data or research about schools it's posted and discussed. Sadly all the other interesting data and research being posted gets overwhelmed by constant schools side chat and stuff about your local village hall, so multiple people who post in this thread just to talk about data don't get to have their conversations. And now someone wants to stop data being posted, which at least gave me a morning giggle. There is no limit on how many threads can be opened, it would be easier to separate.

ancientgran · 12/10/2020 09:44

I'd reckon there would be less than 20 available rooms big enough in the town, and even just to do the primary/infant/junior classes to half you'd need more than that. Do you think that means that areas that could do it shouldn't be allowed to? Fair enough that it won't work everywhere but why should that shut the idea down, if nothing else it would be an interesting experiment to compare schools where it can be done and schools where it can't. It could generate DATA.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2020 09:46

red As posted upthread, the worrying figures in Derry suggest that some areas in NI may have a serious problem with trust in the authorities that is particular to NI

After all, they have a history of suffering oppression and human rights violations from previous Westminster authorities
and they have been voting for the political wing of an organisation that was in recent history - to an oldie like me, anyway ! - blowing up those authorities

OP posts:
BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2020 09:49

@ancientgran

I'd reckon there would be less than 20 available rooms big enough in the town, and even just to do the primary/infant/junior classes to half you'd need more than that. Do you think that means that areas that could do it shouldn't be allowed to? Fair enough that it won't work everywhere but why should that shut the idea down, if nothing else it would be an interesting experiment to compare schools where it can be done and schools where it can't. It could generate DATA.
... Good point We lack data about schools and this is one of the few ways to get more

Are heads actually "banned" from doing this if they have the budget / get it for free ?

Have the govt / DfE ever explained why they won't fund or allow this in areas where there are rooms ?

OP posts:
IceCreamSummer20 · 12/10/2020 09:49

And now someone wants to stop data being posted, which at least gave me a morning giggle. Umm if you meant me? I did not say data should be stopped - I asked for data to be redirected to management rather than daily number counts. Let’s not be personally nasty!

Digeridont · 12/10/2020 09:50

As a long-time and avid lurker, just a thanks to all who contribute, and an additional plea to keep the schools stuff brief and evidence-based. I can (and have) been scrolling past the long schools posts which are opinion-based or reiterate the same points. I understand the passion behind them. But I come to this thread in particular for evidence and dispassionate analysis.

On which note, any Londoners who haven’t yet discovered the London Data Store may find it interesting (though I can’t find positivity rates on there): data.london.gov.uk/dataset/coronavirus--covid-19--cases

blodynmawr · 12/10/2020 09:50

@RedToothBrush Thanks for the graphs on enforcement.

MarshaBradyo · 12/10/2020 09:50

We do have two sectors with different conditions to observe already.

Private and state. But you’d have to take into account some private have small rooms for small classes.

ceeveebee · 12/10/2020 09:50

Interesting analysis on cases in areas with students making up a high % of population

twitter.com/justin_ales/status/1315370477666344960?s=21

Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24
Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24
MarshaBradyo · 12/10/2020 09:51

I thought it mostly staff shortage that was the barrier for extra spaces?

ancientgran · 12/10/2020 09:55

@IceCreamSummer20 Umm if you meant me? I did not say data should be stopped - I asked for data to be redirected to management rather than daily number counts. Let’s not be personally nasty! Hear hear. Amusing when people keep mentioning keeping to the "spirit" of the thread when some of the spirit isn't very nice.

BigChocFrenzy · 12/10/2020 09:55

@MarshaBradyo

I thought it mostly staff shortage that was the barrier for extra spaces?
... Quite possible, but whatever reasons there are should be explained

However, there is a lack of transparency about all areas, not just schools
which is damaging in a pandemic
and against general public health guidelines from the WHO etc to governments

OP posts:
ancientgran · 12/10/2020 09:57

As a long-time and avid lurker, just a thanks to all who contribute, and an additional plea to keep the schools stuff brief and evidence-based. I can (and have) been scrolling past the long schools posts which are opinion-based or reiterate the same points. I understand the passion behind them. But I come to this thread in particular for evidence and dispassionate analysis Do you feel the same about opinion based posts on other things or just schools? There is plenty of opinion offered without any evidence base but it just seems to be school related stuff that gets shot down.

Quarantino · 12/10/2020 09:58

I use a good deal of my limited "leisure time" and mental energy to keep up with these threads and I must admit my heart sinks when I see there's been 400 posts in an afternoon! At the same time I don't want to discourage analysis and ideas. I think i might have to be more selective in not reading the full thread but I hate when ppl don't RTFT... and I might miss an interesting nugget! I'm still after the source of local positivity rates btw...

MRex · 12/10/2020 10:00

Primary schools are at 95% attendance, and no evidence of rafts of primary nor nursery teachers off sick. Risking new safeguarding issues by opening up village halls with newly hired TAs (or whoever is the plan) would be a pointless distraction at best.

Infections are occurring in the older years, whether 14+ or just 16+ and older children are perfectly able to learn part-time from home (if laptops and internet access are provided) and to wear masks in school. Back in July it looks like 88% of 230k laptops had been sent out (very late) and 47,416 of 50,000 routers: schoolsweek.co.uk/dfe-fails-to-meet-target-of-delivering-230k-laptops-by-end-of-june/. No further reporting, so presumably everything is now in place for Heads to demand the right to implement partial home working for the older years.

IceCreamSummer20 · 12/10/2020 10:01

@Quarantino I do agree with your about positivity rates - they are quite important figures and yet very hard to find nationally and locally in UK!

ancientgran · 12/10/2020 10:02

Private and state. But you’d have to take into account some private have small rooms for small classes. So do some state schools, village primaries round here are sometimes under 30 kids in a small victorian building so definitely small rooms for small classes. The sort of comparison I was talking about was taking similar schools, so perhaps 2 form entry primary schools, some using alternative spaces and small classes and some not and then look at differences.

Comparing state schools with private schools would have many other things to consider e.g. state school with high percentage of PP being compared with a private school with much better off families and would introduce lots of other variables including catchment areas.