Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

However, a paper by members of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage), obtained by The Times and due to be published today, challenges his position. It shows that a two-week full lockdown, with stay-at-home orders and school closures, from October 24 could reduce deaths for the rest of the year from about 19,900 to 12,100. Hospital admissions could be reduced from 132,400 to 66,500.

In numbers. How much would it cost (all areas) and what is our capacity for hospital admissions for time period they are referring to after lockdown

That ties in with the date schools were asked to be online by.

I wonder if that was their plan all along.

Or if they'll just ignore it. One thing I find difficult is the uncertaintly of direction.

I doubt it’s certain. It’s advice from Sage but government have to weigh up a lot.

I am an avid lurker and these threads bring me sanity, thank you!

Thank you @littleowl1 for your most excellent email service - I have subscribed and happy to pay, it's a fair price for a very useful email daily update.

"I find I drift back and forth on some issues as more info is added in. "

I think this is the sign of a rational, critical thinker. So many people are entrenched in their view despite so much new data and research.

I find the my views change quite often, it's a strange feeling- but I'm trying to keep an open and questioning mind.....

That's interesting about needing some level of mathematical competence to "get" Covid risk.

Would it be true to say that everyone on this thread feels comfortable looking at numbers and graphs? Otherwise we wouldn't be here.

Signed up littleowl. Thank you.

I thought Kay Burley on Sky had an interesting piece this morning. Earlier this week she talked to Oliver Dowden (think that's his name) about hospitality and why there was some debate on if it was dangerous or safe. He couldn't quote it but said it was based on an American academic study that showed restaurants/bars were a source for spread. Today she had someone on who was involved in the study, I hope I get this right but as I understood it he wasn't in favour of how it was being interpreted.

The study was 320 who tested for covid, 160 positive and 160 negative. Phone follow up to ask what they had done in previous 2 weeks and more of the positive group had been in bars and restaurants, he didn't give figures so I don't know how much more likely it was that you were positive if you had been to restaurants/bars.

His point was that other things hadn't been considered, the example he gave was that people who hadn't been to a bar or restaurant might have been more cautious people so other risks lower.

I just wonder what the thoughts on it were, I thought his point was very valid. The bit I'm not sure of is about the size of the study. Any thoughts?

Looks like Northern Ireland and Wales is seriously looking at a short lockdown.
Do you think that will put pressure for England to do the same?
With the data we got with these new tiers happening will they actually work?
I personally feel that the bar is to high as in the numbers to high before there actually using these tiers.

@ancientgran I know what you're referring to it was a chart widely shared by the government last week.
Basically it was saying that something like 40% of people who caught covid had been to a restaurant/bar in the preceding days. Not at all hard evidence that they actually caught covid there but it could suggest that people who frequent restaurants/bars might be more likely to catch it. And as you say it was in the US where the virus is not necessarily spreading in the same way as it does here anyway.

@Augustbreeze

That's interesting about needing some level of mathematical competence to "get" Covid risk.

Would it be true to say that everyone on this thread feels comfortable looking at numbers and graphs? Otherwise we wouldn't be here.

.... Another group of people may "get" Covid risk and accurately assess their own personal risk and that of their family from Covid vs financial ruin

Risk for Covid may statistically be very low indeed for some individuals and families,
whereas their serious financial damage may be a certainty

Some would psychologically need to excuse their acceptance of higher risk to others by minimising the risk;
others have less problem in prioritising their own vital needs and would knowingly make false claims

I do think the pressure is growing on Boris now for a short sharp lockdown. I would grudgingly support, though blame for the government entirely (mostly the failure of NHS test and trace) for us getting to this point. It's the least worst option right now IMO

I skimmed the SAGE minutes where they talk about the 'circuit breaker' - and I have a question. When they say the expect it to set the virus progress back '28 days' is that 28 days from the start of the circuit breaker or 28 days from the end?

Frazzled, sorry I missed it last week so thanks for the info. I can understand why pubs are unhappy about what is happening based on this. Not that it affects me as I am teetotal and I think the only time I have been in a pub in the last 30 years was to have a meal and an orange juice. I do feel for the business owners and staff.

➡️ NEW Thread 📊📈📉

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4050379-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-25?

@Castiel07

Looks like Northern Ireland and Wales is seriously looking at a short lockdown. Do you think that will put pressure for England to do the same? With the data we got with these new tiers happening will they actually work? I personally feel that the bar is to high as in the numbers to high before there actually using these tiers.

NI have announced one this morning (of sorts.... To me it's a bit of a mish mash alternative tier 3 from what bbc reported)

Welsh mp on bbc this morning was non commital.... a bit like English mps he said it wasn't discounted

@ancientgran - I agree it's valid to say risk takers will be more likely to go to bars than cautious types; it's logical that someone who perhaps hasn't even left the house is less likely to be infected than someone who's been out and about each day. I'd be particularly wary of comparing US bars with UK bars; even within the UK we know many are being incredibly careful and a few aren't; I'd expect the US bars to be far less careful overall than UK ones. 320 people isn't a large number, despite worldwide test-tracing of literally millions of people there isn't certainty about infection sources.

The biggest issue seems to be enforcement for companies enabling reckless behaviour, rather than the entire sector.

@QueenOllie

I've heard rumour (but that's all it is) that Manchester and Lancashire will be tier 3 and it's not supported by local leaders but enforced by government

I think we should be tier 3 really ( not that I want it) but can totally understand holding out to negotiate a decent package. For me the key thing is an agreement and funding to do local test and trace as I think this is what will make the biggest difference and finally start to turn the situation around.

@Frazzled2207

I do think the pressure is growing on Boris now for a short sharp lockdown. I would grudgingly support, though blame for the government entirely (mostly the failure of NHS test and trace) for us getting to this point. It's the least worst option right now IMO

I totally feel like this too!

MRex that is basically how I felt when I heard it. I can understand why hospitality aren't very happy with decisions based on this.

Are any other countries contemplating a full lockdown again? It seems most of Europe are following a blended approach, with local areas being subjected to higher levels of restrictions.

Israel did a second lockdown from mid-Sept, but they didn't phased their way into it, which seemed a bit chaotic. I'm not sure how long for but their numbers have certainly significantly dropped and not gone back up, so presumably not fully out yet.

Israel number of deaths is so incredibly low at 2,055 that I was surprised. Given second lockdown

worldometer

@MarshaBradyo

Israel number of deaths is so incredibly low at 2,055 that I was surprised. Given second lockdown

worldometer

..... might have had a lot to do with PM Netanyahu being on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust.

He desperately needs something to distract from that
and also restrict the large demonstrations againt him

➡️ NEW Thread 📊📈📉

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4050379-Daily-numbers-graphs-analysis-thread-25?