Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Where I agree with Indie SAGE is that if a govt shuts down businesses for the wider public good,
then they should compensate workers in full, not 67% and not with such a low maximum financial limit

• and I would prefer to add fully compensating businesses to that, but it then becomes very expensive indeed,

Risk / benefit calculations are highly complex, both for decisions and the amoiunt of support

We’ve had one of the highest systems of funding in Europe

We are under the weight of it already. I am concerned about the grip on us from both - economic side and virus. But I would avoid closed businesses as much as possible. I can see why that Manchester letter was written.

@EducatingArti - all the information about how attendance is gathered and calculated can be read by looking in the link:
explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak.
Early info on using code X is here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/school-attendance/addendum-recording-attendance-in-relation-to-coronavirus-covid-19-during-the-2020-to-2021-academic-year.

I completely disagree with splitting the threads. How can you possibly put data in either case properly into context without the 'bigger picture' which includes ALL Covid transmission?

[quote MRex]@EducatingArti - all the information about how attendance is gathered and calculated can be read by looking in the link:
explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak.
Early info on using code X is here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/school-attendance/addendum-recording-attendance-in-relation-to-coronavirus-covid-19-during-the-2020-to-2021-academic-year.[/quote]
Please note that this data does not include students who have been deregistered.

I'm for splitting. There are enough posters who would be using both threads to x-post relevant info or point if new development is happening on one or the other.
And a link to the new thread in the OP as with the studies corner would be nice.

Another vote for not splitting the threads here. It would make the schools data thread a target for idiots and this thread meaningless.

Could I ask how you all interpret/use the test positivity rate?

For me, I see it as a bellweather for whether there is adequate volume of testing in a given area given the level of infection in that area.

Is there some other way in which it is being interpreted/used or something else it is considered a reliable pointer for?

(I've noted comments of earlier posters that the volume of posts on this thread can sometimes be overwhelming so I won't clog it up with thank yous from me for those who answer my post - feels really alien not to say thank you but please know that I am thankful despite not replying!)

BBC 1 showing Van Tam update in a few minutes.

@EducatingArti Actually, this is an important schools point to do with data
How are these attendance percentages calculated? I'm asking as children self isolating or waiting for a test result are given an X in the registration records which means an authorized absence. This means that their attendance record is still counted as 100% ( parents and teachers have been saying this- parents have looked at child's attendance figs where this is available online and it is 100% even when they have been isolating at home)
If this is being used to generate the schools attendance data ( I hope not but don't put any mismanagement past our government) then attendance rates could be very inaccurate!

That is a good point, I know when I used to collect GS recently, my own children years ago, for medical appointments they weren't counted as absent. At one point DD was having physio every morning and she never got a late or an absent. I wonder if anyone in education admin/management knows how that works?

Could be mismanagement or a rather artful presentation of the figures.

Coronavirus update by Van Tam live now

Thanks Coquohvan just caught it.

3:30pm Boris in the Commons, 6pm Boris to the country for the later announcements btw.

I see it's already getting lost, or maybe doesn't interest anyone else. Is anyone interested in saving the link to LA vulnerabilities and flu jab take-up? I thought it may prove very useful for additional analysis when we have thoughts about specific LAs and need vulnerability data to compare: fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/V8BMkJikgU

Van Tam rocking data on live bbc stream (and others I imagine.)

"I wonder it would possibly be better to have a "data about schools" thread and a separate "data about anything but schools" thread. Not to shut down discussions but to enable them to be more meaningful."

Yes!

This thread is being overtaken by constant school discussion in an unbalanced way in comparison to other data analysis.

@MarshaBradyo if you really wanted to look at it you could get closer with school with lowest pupil premium. In London some state effectively select by house price Yes if some of the schools in each group were using additional space and some weren't. I think it could be quite an undertaking but give real information on the benefits, or lack of, of using additional spaces.

So is this briefing a softening for tonight's? I'm following on BBC news website.

Mrex I've clicked on link, too much to read atm (I'm meant to be working) will look later.

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health have a good explanation of test positivity rate here:

The percent positive (sometimes called the “percent positive rate” or “positivity rate”) helps public health officials answer questions such as:

°What is the current level of SARS-CoV-2 (coronavirus) transmission in the community?
°Are we doing enough testing for the amount of people who are getting infected?

The percent positive will be high if the number of positive tests is too high, or if the number of total tests is too low. A higher percent positive suggests higher transmission and that there are likely more people with coronavirus in the community who haven’t been tested yet.

The percent positive is a critical measure because it gives us an indication how widespread infection is in the area where the testing is occurring—and whether levels of testing are keeping up with levels of disease transmission.

What does a high percent positive mean?

A high percent positive means that more testing should probably be done—and it suggests that it is not a good time to relax restrictions aimed at reducing coronavirus transmission. Because a high percentage of positive tests suggests high coronavirus infection rates (due to high transmission in the community), a high percent positive can indicate it may be a good time to add restrictions to slow the spread of disease.

David Dowdy, associate professor and Gypsyamber D’Souza professor in Epidemiology at the Bloomberg School.
www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/covid-19-testing-understanding-the-percent-positive.html

I think the problem with posting on schools at the moment is people trying to stop it and other people replying. If it was accepted like anything else, say care homes, the rate of posts would probably drop. We could try it and see what happens.

I'm tagging so ppl can skip

I don't understand....

1. Looking at the attendance gov link. How can something like this be a voluntary survey? ALL schools have to have electronic register. Ergo: data could be easily transmitted to centralized databanks without human intervention.

1. !!Anecdata!! My son's attendance is 100%, making sure the school stats lok nice. He has yet to set foot in the school building. I know for sure from another source that he is on the X code. Ergo: again, not enough datapoints identified.

We need
X1- off sick
X2 - off isolating, no symptoms
X3 - off as parent is paranoid

X2 and X3 need online provision and kids need to do HW, tests, need to be assessed.
X1 is unable to work thus from an attendance recording viewpoint (or the original intent of it) it should be 0%

At the moment all we have is X.

Conclusion: all the data we are looking are likely to be skewed to the point of being unusable.

Van tam is good as he spells it out.

He'd be a great science teacher.

@littleowl1 - I interpret it the same way; under 1% super, under 3% OK, under 5% tolerable if there is a plan or a known specific outbreak, over 10% I'm in fretting mode and over 25% I expect very very bad news from hospitals.

@ancientgran - it is counted separately as covid absence under code X, as per the links now posted twice to answer @EducatingArti.

How are these attendance percentages calculated? I'm asking as children self isolating or waiting for a test result are given an X in the registration records which means an authorized absence. This means that their attendance record is still counted as 100% ( parents and teachers have been saying this- parents have looked at child's attendance figs where this is available online and it is 100% even when they have been isolating at home)
If this is being used to generate the schools attendance data ( I hope not but don't put any mismanagement past our government) then attendance rates could be very inaccurate!

Yes, can we believe that attendance data tells us anything meaningful if this is true? Is there any way to get at the authorized absences (i.e. not currently counted) data?

It also means that there is no record of children who are isolating and not actually receiving an education. My school didn't provide anything for DD when isolating and many other reports of this.