Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

herecomesthesun, gosh your village has even more than mine. I forgot the hotel though.

That Liverpool link:

"The new measures are expected to be in place for as long as six months, but with regular reviews"

Government should give much more generous support to business and workers laid off at their orders,
or unemployment and bankruptcies will be skyhigh

Something ordered for the public good should be paid for by the public

Of course, that's just a moral pov
In practical terms, there is no way to force this govt to pay for this, any more than for schools

I can't want for the hoards of people from Liverpool getting on the train for a Saturday piss up in Blackpool or whereever.

@herecomesthsun

I live in a village with a small C of E junior school. There are 3 churches, a church hall, youth room, chapel, chapel hall, village hall with several rooms for hire, several restaurants and hotels with under-used conference rooms and also shops that have sadly shut.

Normally there are activities in the village hall, but mostly attended by retired people, and many have not restarted.

The church buildings are not much used in the week.

There would be scope to distance but it would take planning.

The classes have a teacher and a TA, so potentially could split.

I think secondary school would be harder to do this with (but they might have more potential for distance learning)

I work in a village that has grown to be a suburb of a town.

There are 3 church halls (1 used for after school club already). A community centre with a single room.

1 shop that has shut.

And nothing else.

Meanwhile there are an equivalent of 28 primary school classes, and I think at least 60 secondary school classes, within schools in the village's geographical area.

I don't think that particular quart goes into the pint pot available.....

Do we know what time tomorrow we will know? Is it an official "Address the Nation" moment?

This is perfect summary and thinking ahead. From Anthony Costello on what should be done.

twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1315336234382827522

Boris will announce the measures to Parliament in the morning or afternoon and then address the nation at ?5pm or maybe later, as far as I've gathered.

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]This is perfect summary and thinking ahead. From Anthony Costello on what should be done.

twitter.com/globalhlthtwit/status/1315336234382827522[/quote]
...
Well looks like he has at least some facts wrong or misleading,
which would be sloppy

"Once this reformed FTTIS system is in place, a circuit breaker of 14-21 days (the relative impact of duration can be modelled) would aim to get us down to below 10 cases per 100,000.
As in Taiwan, Finland, Japan, Norway, South Korea, Vietnam, China, Germany + many others.

The European countries listed there are all well above 10 / 100,000

Also the WHO spokesman quoted upthread has called on governments to stop using lockdowns,

except in emergency conditions that he listed - and which the UK does not yet fulfill

I think parts of the UK could be close to it though. You don't wait until your hospitals are actually overwhelmed, you take action beforehand to prevent this and from what Can Tam has said, I think we might be at this crunch point
We shouldn't be of course, had things been managed better.

@BigChocFrenzy

Thanks for the fact checking.
I still think he is on the right track though in theory. And at least he has a plan. Which we cannot say of the government.

@Augustbreeze

Boris will announce the measures to Parliament in the morning or afternoon and then address the nation at ?5pm or maybe later, as far as I've gathered.

I'm actually sick and tired of these so called leaked ideas. This is a classic way to gauge social acceptance and I think it's wrong on so many levels. It also shows that they are a populist bunch who have no plan but do what the mass population will go for/with. This is unacceptable.

BigChoc the travel guidence only came in on Friday. Judging by my own behaviour and the traffic on the Queensferry Crossing, ( the new Forth Road Bridge, literally a bridge between an extra restrictions area of the Lothian Health Board and Fife ), no one is currently paying any attention to avoiding travel in and out of areas. Police don't have the power to enforce travel guidence.
All the bars and restaurants are shut apart from some doing takeaway and mask wearing is back to almost 100% in supermarkets.

I spotted something interesting.
France has been above 10k on a 7day average since sept 20. Uk since oct 6.

They reached a 7d average of 64 deaths in 7 days, whilst the UK reached it (63) in 4 days.

Would this indicate that the UK (again) is on a potential worse trajectory?

The 7-day averages wrt deaths might indicate that the infection is spreading more quickly to the elderly in the UK ?

We need more data over a longer time period

Re schools - I don't actually think the issue of schools would (or should) be closed right now even if everyone on MN was 100% united in support of the current way they're open. There are still too many open questions. Staff and children in schools are a big chunk of the population, mixing in a really bad environment from the point of view of infection control. There's lots we still don't know about how children/teenagers transmit the virus. I think someone pointed out yesterday that potentially businesses may be at risk of going bust, because of community measures that might not even be necessary if in-school measures could be tweaked to be more effective. So I think it would be a mistake to see curiosity about the detail of transmission in schools as something that's only driven by parental concern (not that that's unreasonable), and not as something that has more general value. I think it's something we still really need to know a lot more about. I hope we hear back soon about the research that is going on in that area.

Place marking for this new thread, they fill up quickly!

Regarding the WHO advice on lock downs. I think it’s worth remembering that their advice has to be one size fits all for the whole planet. In countries without a functioning safety net of benefits, a full lock down would be tantamount to condemning most of the population to starvation for the benefit of the few who could afford it. A ban on tourism and travel obviously benefits richer countries like New Zealand at the expense of poorer destinations. Their advice has to be seen in this context, it is what it’s best for the whole world, not specific countries within it.

red West Lancs and Warrington are associate members of the LCR, I really hope that they use that card to impose it on both of those areas too. West Lancs is currently on a terrible trajectory and has a big travel interaction with LCR so would seem ludicrous to miss it off, and as you say Warrington shares a hospital. We’ll see if anyone even vaguely geographically minded has been involved in the discussions

Our village has an old primary school that has been used as a nursery for a number of years that's now shut. It's all up to date with fire regs etc from being a nursery.

It has 3 classrooms, huge playground, staff room.

It's been offered to the local council and we've not heard back.

This could happen if there was the will. I'm a farmer. I'd happily stick up a marquee in a shed and hire some portaloos and allow the village school to have a day a week forest school. It's within sight of the village school. Well away from a road.

Johnson will address the national at 6pm today.

I'm manager of a community building.
We have a number of rooms that we hire out, and currently are struggling fiancially.

Normally we have about 75% rooms filled over the week.
Now, other than one evening we are rarely with more than 1 room full.

If a school came to us wanting to use rooms I'm not certain we would say yes.
We certainly couldn't hire on the basis they're the only ones in the building. We don't want to lose any regular hirers we have currently back.
Toilets would be an issue especially if we had more than one class in. Again we couldn't necessarily give them exclusive use which becomes a child protection issue.
We have 3 rooms that under 2m rule could take 15 people. One we would have to say no arts etc as it's carpeted etc.
Where would they have play time? We could put fences up on the front lawn to create a space there, but that is right by the main road.
The rooms are hired out in the evening so everything would need to be cleared away at night, put out in the morning.

It's a lovely idea, but if I was asked I wouldn't be saying yes straight away. It would be a bit of a headache.

Re my last post, if West Lancs isn’t included then we’ll be in the bizarre position where the area circled in green isn’t included in the restrictions but the area circled in red is.

Thinking about our area community space.

We have 3 secondary schools (2 large around 10 form entry, one small) 3 large juniors, 3 infants, 4 at least 3 form entry primaries.

Churches, very few would have more than the main church as a room big enough for 15 children. Some of the churches are doing midweek daytime services as they are limited capacity, so may not be happy with the building being out of action all week. At least 3 of the churches are already used as pre-schools.
So there are around 10 churches. 7 of whom may have 1 room available.
There's the theatre, but that's being used by the council to distribute food parcels, they'd have 3 rooms I think.
The leisure centre closed a couple of years ago and has been knocked down.

All bar one of the community centres have preschools already in them.
Office buildings in our town have pretty much all been converted into flats so nothing going there.
There are a few spare shops in town, but not that much.

I'd reckon there would be less than 20 available rooms big enough in the town, and even just to do the primary/infant/junior classes to half you'd need more than that.