Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

@MRex can I just say on a personal level - please don’t ‘laugh’ at my posts! I think this thread is excellent, and am a huge fan of @BigChocFrenzy and the level headedness. Please don’t let small but mean remarks put people like me off!

Primary schools are at 95% attendance, and no evidence of rafts of primary nor nursery teachers off sick. Risking new safeguarding issues by opening up village halls with newly hired TAs (or whoever is the plan) would be a pointless distraction at best.

I agree with this.

"source of local positivity rates"

I cannot find any central source and afaik there is none
==> please anyone post if you find one

A few councils and areas give out their local rates, which good quality newspapers publish

@ancientgran

I think the difficulty is two fold. Firstly, there are numerous posts regarding schools and only one post limiting itself to data. Secondly, the issue of schools is emotive and quickly becomes overpowering so that other data gets lost. Data about other issues/areas doesn't have the same effect

I wonder it would possibly be better to have a "data about schools" thread and a separate "data about anything but schools" thread. Not to shut down discussions but to enable them to be more meaningful.

Ancient if you really wanted to look at it you could get closer with school with lowest pupil premium. In London some state effectively select by house price.

I know some state have small classrooms but I assume you want to see effect of SD? So a private class would need to have a bigger classroom with fewer students to allow for this.

However, there is a lack of transparency about all areas, not just schools which is damaging in a pandemic

Absolutely this! I cannot see compliance with "tier 3" lockdown being particularly high unless we can have some justification for the measures. Liverpool pubs shut but Manchester pubs open, or restaurants open while hairdressers shut will (IMO) cause division, distrust and ultimately undermine attempts to get the public to adhere to guidance. Unless we can all see the rationale behind it.

@Quarantino - they are in the weekly surveillance data file published each Friday: www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports.
Test totals are only updated on weekdays, presumably that's why aligning cases and tests takes juggling and is only reported weekly. And it might be a delayed percentage to allow for test result lags. I'm not sure.

@MRex

Primary schools are at 95% attendance, and no evidence of rafts of primary nor nursery teachers off sick. Risking new safeguarding issues by opening up village halls with newly hired TAs (or whoever is the plan) would be a pointless distraction at best.

Infections are occurring in the older years, whether 14+ or just 16+ and older children are perfectly able to learn part-time from home (if laptops and internet access are provided) and to wear masks in school. Back in July it looks like 88% of 230k laptops had been sent out (very late) and 47,416 of 50,000 routers: schoolsweek.co.uk/dfe-fails-to-meet-target-of-delivering-230k-laptops-by-end-of-june/. No further reporting, so presumably everything is now in place for Heads to demand the right to implement partial home working for the older years.

.... Even for children under 14, I presume there are safeguarding rules about securing rooms so that they cannot wander outside and that outsiders cannot sneak in

There would need to be sufficient access and transport for children to get there

Also, presumably there would have to be a minimum of 2 staff to send out even one class

It would be possible however to resource a few schools to do this, to collect data
but it needs to be done very soon, if it is to be a pilot program for a larger number of schools

@BigChocFrenzy - yes heads have been advised not to use extra spaces. The main issue with schools is the lack of qualified staff which cannot be easily solved, plus as others have noted concerns about safeguarding and safety of other buildings etc. Many schools do not have a TA in each class. There aren’t enough teachers and TAs to hire even if the funding was made available.

I imagine the reason the gov ( and actually many head teachers) wouldn’t want to allow some schools to trial using other spaces is it would lead to inequality of provision. I suspect ( but it would be good to have data on this!) that the schools that have the space and staff to do this would generally be in areas that already better off. As it is there a huge concerns around the disparity that is likely to occur given the link between coronavirus levels and deprived communities leading to children in those communities suffering higher levels of school closures.

As @MRex notes at the moment attendance in primary is currently very near to normal levels anyway ( although appreciate this may change).

Apologies I appreciate I have now also added to the schools posts!

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@ancientgran

I think the difficulty is two fold. Firstly, there are numerous posts regarding schools and only one post limiting itself to data. Secondly, the issue of schools is emotive and quickly becomes overpowering so that other data gets lost. Data about other issues/areas doesn't have the same effect

I wonder it would possibly be better to have a "data about schools" thread and a separate "data about anything but schools" thread. Not to shut down discussions but to enable them to be more meaningful.[/quote]
....
"I wonder it would possibly be better to have a "data about schools" thread and a separate "data about anything but schools" thread. Not to shut down discussions but to enable them to be more meaningful."

I was just thinking that !
Separate data-based threads would do justice to both themes

New data source !

NHS Pathways coronavirus triage

Beta version

https://digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/nhs-pathways

==> please let me know if you want the NHS triage link added to the OP

""I wonder it would possibly be better to have a "data about schools" thread and a separate "data about anything but schools" thread. Not to shut down discussions but to enable them to be more meaningful."

I was just thinking that !"

I agree.... schools should be mentioned as part of the bigger picture. But the last few threads have been completely dominated which is a real
shame as many come on this thread for the data.....

I’m up for splitting threads

@MRex

Primary schools are at 95% attendance, and no evidence of rafts of primary nor nursery teachers off sick. Risking new safeguarding issues by opening up village halls with newly hired TAs (or whoever is the plan) would be a pointless distraction at best.

Infections are occurring in the older years, whether 14+ or just 16+ and older children are perfectly able to learn part-time from home (if laptops and internet access are provided) and to wear masks in school. Back in July it looks like 88% of 230k laptops had been sent out (very late) and 47,416 of 50,000 routers: schoolsweek.co.uk/dfe-fails-to-meet-target-of-delivering-230k-laptops-by-end-of-june/. No further reporting, so presumably everything is now in place for Heads to demand the right to implement partial home working for the older years.

Actually, this is an important schools point to do with data How are these attendance percentages calculated? I'm asking as children self isolating or waiting for a test result are given an X in the registration records which means an authorized absence. This means that their attendance record is still counted as 100% ( parents and teachers have been saying this- parents have looked at child's attendance figs where this is available online and it is 100% even when they have been isolating at home)
If this is being used to generate the schools attendance data ( I hope not but don't put any mismanagement past our government) then attendance rates could be very inaccurate!

The problem with splitting the threads though is that neither will then have the full picture regarding data and research

There is a long-running problem with some versions of iPad being able to visualise this
and also the NHS Progression dashboard suggested by @Mrex

I've been corresponding at length with their digital support teams, but they now seem to have given up

==> would pp still like one or both these links in the OP, or is the download problem affecting too many people ?

The links have been posted many times @EducatingArti, you can check it for yourself.

I've found something rather concerning regarding Nottingham, they can't one of the lowest uptakes of flu jab:
fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/V8BMkJikgU. Could be very problematic if cases spread out heading into December.
Link shows all vulnerabilities by LA by the way, might be interesting to browse for people.

@EducatingArti

The problem with splitting the threads though is that neither will then have the full picture regarding data and research

It's fine to mention the schools as part of the bigger picture. Not an outright ban.

Another vote to split by the way.

I’d also support splitting threads ( as despite contributing to schools chat used to like these threads to avoid school stuff!). Although perhaps any key data could still be posted?

@BigChocFrenzy what do the WHO advise when saying don’t lockdown unless you have to? Presumably social distancing, masks, reducing contacts, ventilation?

@MRex

The links have been posted many times *@EducatingArti*, you can check it for yourself.

I've found something rather concerning regarding Nottingham, they can't one of the lowest uptakes of flu jab:
fingertips.phe.org.uk/indicator-list/view/V8BMkJikgU. Could be very problematic if cases spread out heading into December.
Link shows all vulnerabilities by LA by the way, might be interesting to browse for people.

I know I can check the links. I'm concerned about how the data from the links is being formulated and whether it is giving an accurate picture. I suspect it might not be and this is a concern for me. I'm not getting at you or anyone else, but I am raising a concern.

[quote Reastie]@BigChocFrenzy what do the WHO advise when saying don’t lockdown unless you have to? Presumably social distancing, masks, reducing contacts, ventilation?[/quote]
....
This is what the WHO spokesman said, calling on world leaders,
about what is the only time the WHO think lockdowns are justified, no mention of other measures

The questions are whether the UK - or other European countries - have yet reached that state, how often national / local lockdowns must be repeated and how long they should last
Alos, in practical terms, when is there public acceptance & compliance

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/world/world-health-organisation-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-recommending-against-lockdowns/

Dr David Nabarro from the WHO appealed to world leaders yesterday, telling them to
stop "using lockdowns as your primary control method" of the coronavirus.
.....
"Lockdowns just have one consequence that you must never ever belittle, and that is making poor people an awful lot poorer,"
he said.

"We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,"
Dr Nabarro told The Spectator.

"The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted,
but by and large, we'd rather not do it.

@EducatingArti

The problem with splitting the threads though is that neither will then have the full picture regarding data and research

Data for all settings should be here. Mrex data visible on my IPad