Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

I wish the government would publish how they have decided on today's rules. I can not see how guidelines to not leave a high risk area will make any difference. Also what do they expect people who frequent pubs will do?

Folks I’ve just seen this news report referencing the area being out on the watchlist last Thursday night.
www.eadt.co.uk/news/east-west-suffolk-coronavirus-watchlist-1-6875855

Which implies the watchlist was updated last Thursday.

I usually check for watchlist updates here:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

But there is no watchlist published for last week.

Does anyone know where the govt is publishing the latest watchlist?

I wish the government would publish how they have decided on today's rules.

Me too. I find it really difficult to follow rules which seem arbitrary. And for a lot of people who are generally distrustful of the government, the stuff in the papers this weekend about top ministers not putting their own constituencies in to local lockdown really won't have helped. Publishing the decision making process and having some transparency might help (unless, of course, the distrustful ones are correct and the government are truly corrupt).

what do they expect people who frequent pubs will do?

Exactly what they did when the 10pm curfew was introduced. Go to each others houses, where covid restrictions are less likely to be enforced.

Do we know what time Johnson will address Parliament with the rules? We’ll know then, not 6pm, I think.

I assume it will be shortly after lunch but does anyone have anything more precise than that?

I am still really frustrated that there isn’t a regular set time for announcements so everyone knows when to listen/look. And that as there isn’t, it is really hard to find out when they are. And as for the press conferences which are always at different times of the day and on different days...!

@Hmmph

Do we know what time Johnson will address Parliament with the rules? We’ll know then, not 6pm, I think.

I assume it will be shortly after lunch but does anyone have anything more precise than that?

I am still really frustrated that there isn’t a regular set time for announcements so everyone knows when to listen/look. And that as there isn’t, it is really hard to find out when they are. And as for the press conferences which are always at different times of the day and on different days...!

.... Reports are "evening" which makes sense, so that most people are back home after work

Reports also are that discussions are continuing with local leaders and worried Tory MPs - it is the latter in particular whom BJ will want to bring on board, because they are the only ones who can call him to acount

So the broadcast will be delayed until No 10 has at least the acquiescence of their MPs,
in particular the chairman of the 1922 committee, Brady, who has been raising objections to SD strategy - such as it is ! - for weeks now
That's politics

A small plea.

As there is no reliable data on schools, and this is a data thread, can we all please park the schools debate for a while. I come here to avoid the schools threads, of which there are many. Yes, I have been culpable too, can't resist a debate, but let's get back to our core mission.

I’m in GM and watching closely what happens.
Manchester figures may have peaked only Because there was According to MP Lucy Powell a lot of proactive testing of students about 10 days ago many of which were asymptomatic. There are clearly a lot of student cases in the city but that is not the same as community spread which I understand is much more pronounced in Liverpool.

That all being said all 10 boroughs of GREATER Manchester have been in a pickle with high numbers since late July. Tier 2 type restrictions have not worked for whatever reason so clearly something needs to change- ideally actual enforcement of them if you ask me. Not sure closing restaurants etc and especially gyms is the answer (pubs might help a bit IMO). It’s all very bad news for people’s general mh and is going to be devastating for the economy

@littleowl1

Folks I’ve just seen this news report referencing the area being out on the watchlist last Thursday night. www.eadt.co.uk/news/east-west-suffolk-coronavirus-watchlist-1-6875855

Which implies the watchlist was updated last Thursday.

I usually check for watchlist updates here:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports

But there is no watchlist published for last week.

Does anyone know where the govt is publishing the latest watchlist?

No idea.

I saw a map last night which had Cheshire East and Cheshire West added as new watchlist areas as well as the east coast down from the locked down areas in the NE.

So i know theyve updated it but im unsure of which counties have been newly added.

Highest 7-day incidences in England:

1. 830 Nottingham
2. 670 Knowsley

Quite a gap
Nottingham's headline rate continues to be considerably worse than the rest of the country

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/11/uk-critical-juncture-boris-johnson-three-tier-covid-alert-system

Also the Imperial table shows Derry in NI has had very similar levels since 27 September

The lack of an all-Ireland strategy and the high level of anger & mistrust in NI over Brexit are likely drivers
However, the main Westminster parties have no MPs in NI and the focus is massively skewed towards England

https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#table

@Baaaahhhhh

A small plea.

As there is no reliable data on schools, and this is a data thread, can we all please park the schools debate for a while. I come here to avoid the schools threads, of which there are many. Yes, I have been culpable too, can't resist a debate, but let's get back to our core mission.

I agree that we need to keep things to data and research but I think that it should be of concern to all of us that there is no reliable data on schools. It is a heated subject, yes of course but it needs to be part of our discussion ( in a respectful and analytical way) otherwise we could be ignoring the elephant in the room, no?

@Baaaahhhhh

A small plea.

As there is no reliable data on schools, and this is a data thread, can we all please park the schools debate for a while. I come here to avoid the schools threads, of which there are many. Yes, I have been culpable too, can't resist a debate, but let's get back to our core mission.

I agree with this. There are so many speculative school threads. Unless data or research can be linked or posted then I prefer to keep this thread less subjective.

Wouldn't it be good to have something like this? Perhaps with a few pages explaining the reasoning behind each of the restrictions.

Exactly what they did when the 10pm curfew was introduced. Go to each others houses, where covid restrictions are less likely to be enforced

If the evidence was published, that may indeed be a reasonable thing - it's possible that transmission is so dominated by super-spreader events that moving everyone into groups that mix less is a reasonable restriction. (A super-spreader in a pub drinking all day might infect 100, his same session in 2 houses might do 10, even if he did that every day whilst infectious it wouldn't be as bad as his one pub visit.)

The problem is that's just an hypothesis of why the rule is written like that, Public Health England provide no evidence for why any of the restrictions are recommended to the politicians.

@RedToothBrush could you send me the link for the map you mentioned. I will dig around on it and try and work our where their data feed is coming from and post the resource back here if I get to the bottom of it.

Re: Schools
There are also businesses with large meeting rooms and areas that are not being used because all are working from home. So many possibilities.

In the same way that the homeless were put up in empty hotels - and domestic abuse victims housed in empty University halls in Spring - many things previously not thought possible are perfectly doable.

I also agree with this The only time we believe a lockdown is justified is to buy you time to reorganise, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted, but by and large, we'd rather not do it.

However there are lockdowns and lockdowns! Those that focus on high risk places such as restaurants, bars, clubs, care homes, schools & Universities and meat factors are crucial. I think we have to completely rehaul how these are delivered in the next 6 months - less rotating lockdowns and more managing them well in the first place

. Grants for creating outdoor spaces? Insisting teachers wear masks? Secondary school students wear masks? (As they do in Ireland and elsewhere) Universities test weekly and are 50% online?

Also - I think that this thread is excellent. So much measured and good information.

However - as we go into the long term with the virus. I’m not sure if counting cases is the best use of all our expertise and time?

Isn’t it now much more about giving an expert analysis of how we manage COVID-19? And I do really hope so many of you also pass on your excellent views and advice onto to your local and national policy makers.

@HoldingTight yes that is the Irish guidelines and I do think they have helped. However it has not really delivered this well, as the expert group recommended moving the whole country to Level 5 last week but the government decided not to. There were shocks that levels could be moved through so quickly (it was level 2 and Dublin level 3, now whole country level 3). Case numbers are rocketing and healthcare is reaching capacity already.

Unfortunately i have no idea where i saw it yesterday littleowl.

It was when i was hunting around for stuff yesterday and it was just a map with no link to anything else so i just skipped on by after noticing that it was different to previous weeks.

Ive got to be honest this week is a complete shitshow in terms of PHE data being published without it being consolidated on the watchlist pdf.

Councils had data which was published either Wednesday or Thursday last week which seemed to be from PHE but this doesn't seem to be in the public domain properly and not all councils which will have had this data have published it.

Its infuriating because its clearly 'out there' but its not fully transparent to everyone.

I spent a lot of time looking yesterday and just couldn't find a single source.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Exactly what they did when the 10pm curfew was introduced. Go to each others houses, where covid restrictions are less likely to be enforced

If the evidence was published, that may indeed be a reasonable thing - it's possible that transmission is so dominated by super-spreader events that moving everyone into groups that mix less is a reasonable restriction. (A super-spreader in a pub drinking all day might infect 100, his same session in 2 houses might do 10, even if he did that every day whilst infectious it wouldn't be as bad as his one pub visit.)

The problem is that's just an hypothesis of why the rule is written like that, Public Health England provide no evidence for why any of the restrictions are recommended to the politicians.

Is there any evidence that the local restrictions, of whatever level, have worked?

Leicester went down for a while, but is back up again. Many places in the NE/NW/Yorks have continued to climb.

Is it because it's predominantly driven by student populations, there's lack of community support for measures, high numbers of people working out of the home, educational establishments or dependence on family for childcare?

Looking at the spread so far, it's difficult to see that the new lockdown measures will have a significant impact on spread. Instead it will risk jobs and further alienate communities in the north.

@RedToothBrush Thanks for letting me know. It is indeed infuriating.

The independent reporting this morning how much of a lottery enforcement is.

Places under the tightest restrictions are not issuing more fixed penalty notices as you might expect.

Only 89 fines had been given out by police for failing to wear a face mask, and by just 11 out of 45 forces in England and Wales.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/coronavirus-uk-fines-law-regulations-local-lockdowns-postcode-lottery-police-b914482.html
Coronavirus: Postcode lottery for fines as some police forces 80 times more likely to hand out penalties
Exclusive: ‘Your treatment by the police should not be dependent upon your postcode,’ campaigners say

If we are going into even stricter lockdown, we seem to be relying on public goodwill.

And i genuinely don't know how much longer thats going to hold out.

The trouble is there is still an ongoing argument about where the problem really is and whether its people who are complying who remain the issue or whether its simply location. If, as it sounds like, they keep pubs serving food open but close other pubs because alcohol is blamed, i really dont see how that will fix the issue. The two places here which aren't keeping to covid measures are a restaurant and a pub which serves food - the three alcohol only bars are really strict and have suffered financially because theyve done so.

So im really not sure restrictions are the answer at this point. If enforcement isn't being used in proportion to where the problem is, then it does make you wonder what difference this will make tbh.

I do think you are just likely to drive the alcohol related issues underground. And with a lack of enforcement that helps no one anyway.

Graphs of the levels of enforcement from the above indy article.

I do think you are just likely to drive the alcohol related issues underground. And with a lack of enforcement that helps no one anyway

Liverpool speakeasies anyone?

Why don't those who don't want to talk about schools don't just scroll school posts without reading? That's what I do to anything I'm not interested in / is not relevant / that I don't personally like. It's a public forum, that's how it works.

I agree that if we don't mention schools - which are a huge source of people mixing both in the buildings and at the school gates - then we're missing potentially a huge area of concern. I don't see the point of a thread about transmission of coronavirus where schools are never mentioned -it'd be like banning discussion of care homes or workplaces or pubs and restaurants entirely. (also, just not that nice to try and dictate what other people can talk about).

Especially given the PHE data which does show a huge increase in cases in schools and that they account for a large proportion of outbreaks (www.gov.uk/government/publications/national-covid-19-surveillance-reports - particularly figure 20). This is data - people are analysing that data. We don't know one way or the other if that reflects community levels or is contributing to driving them - because we have no appropriate data to test that hypothesis in schools as they are at the moment. But even if it's only reflective it still means teachers are exposed to ever more risk - without any mitigation - in their workplace.

Personally it reminds me very much of the doctors not working on covid wards who complained they didn't have PPE at the start of all of this - www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-berkshire-52309654

The hospital said because they weren't working with confirmed covid patients or anyone symptomatic with covid (but doing their routine work) they didn't need PPE but that obviously wasn't true - because asymptomatic / presymptomatic infection when community levels are high is very likely. www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/nejme2009758

And I think schools being open the way they are has huge knock on effects for people's behaviour elsewhere. You really can't ignore that. So many, many playdates and sleepovers happening 'because they're in the same bubble'. You just can't expect people to send kids to school with no measures and then enforce measures out of school / at home it's just against human nature and doesn't work. Particularly with pre-teens / teenagers. They're sitting right next to each other in school of course they're going to do the same outside of school - why on earth wouldn't they?

@IceCreamSummer20

Also - I think that this thread is excellent. So much measured and good information.

However - as we go into the long term with the virus. I’m not sure if counting cases is the best use of all our expertise and time?

Isn’t it now much more about giving an expert analysis of how we manage COVID-19? And I do really hope so many of you also pass on your excellent views and advice onto to your local and national policy makers.

... The kind of threads you want could be very useful and there seems a need for them

However, these are data & stats threads, with analysis & comment on that data
Losing that focus on numbers here would lose the whole point of calling them "Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread xx"