Daily numbers, graphs, analysis thread 24

[BigChocFrenzy]

Welcome to thread 24 of the daily updates

Resource links

UK:
Uk dashboard deaths, cases, hospitals, tests - 4 nations, English regions & LAs
UK govt pressers Slides & data
R estimates UK & English regions
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots
School statistics Attendance
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports
Modelling real number of UK infections February to date

England:
NHS England Hospital activity
NHS England Daily deaths
MSAO Map of English cases
Cases Tracker England Local Government
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday
ONS MSAO Map English deaths
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA
PHE surveillance reports Covid, flu, respiratory diseases
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England

Scotland, Wales, NI:
Scot gov Daily data
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths
NI Dashboard

Miscell:
Zoe Uk data
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK
Worldometer UK page
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment
Local Mobility Reports for countries
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
📈 📉 📊 👍

Oh sorry, I thought you were imagining guidance rather than actually quoting it, srupid of me!

But it's confusing, I was sure I'd read and heard earlier that ECV children were still to attend and have found this bit:

All pupils and students should continue to attend education settings at all local COVID alert levels unless they are one of the very small number of pupils or students under paediatric care and have been advised by their GP or clinician not to attend an education setting.

I presumed that referred to the handful of people (inc some children) who were advised by their consultants never to come out of shielding, and that nothing had therefore changed?

August oh right I’m not sure either. Not sure if the group has expanded with that new guidance

Given how I was a grumpycat today and totally unhelpful in any way thought I'd try my best to contribute something positive. But jumped the gun, sorry :)

Yes @MarshaBradyo have just found the bit you quote and am very confused, it seems contradictory. Or are they talking about what they may do in very high risk areas?

This is the BBC's interpretation, which I realise is what I'd read earlier:

Shielding advice will not automatically be triggered by an area going into tier three.

But it may be reintroduced in the future in hotspot areas in exceptional circumstances.

If that happens, people at high risk would again be advised to stay at home, not go to work or school and limit social interactions to their own household and support bubble.

@Augustbreeze
Doesn't this imply that there is a tier4 and potentially more numbers? So why not make it a more nuanced tier system?
Also what is this fetish with 3?

It's all smoke and mirrors @TheSunIsStillShining, all smoke and mirrors!

@Augustbreeze

It's all smoke and mirrors *@TheSunIsStillShining*, all smoke and mirrors!

Thanks for reassuring me that it's not me going completely bonkers :)

Europe 14-day incidence per 100,000:

Czech Republic: 521.1
Belgium: 429.5
Netherlands: 387.0
Spain: 299.8
France: 299.7
UK: 268.1

Slovakia (202.0) and Slovenia (165.2) also a worry.

14-day deaths per 100,000:

Czech Republic: 4.1
Romania: 3.7
Spain: 3.6
Hungary: 2.4
Belgium: 1.8
Poland: 1.6
France: 1.5
Bulgaria: 1.5
UK: 1.3
Croatia: 1.3

mobile.twitter.com/Care2much18/status/1316052862615642112

Hungary is a weird beast. Their numbers are comparative to population are high, but relative to other countries not so shocking. And yet the death rate is one of the highest.
(Overall only 0.43% of the population had tested positive for covid out of having tested 8.71%)
Reasons for this (and this can be very potentially be true for Romania too):

• healthcare has been underfunded for decades*. Never was that great in the socialist era, but after 1990 no parties felt the need to upgrade it to 20th century standards. There is a tier of private hospitals that were invested in (under the blanket, but gov money). By now the hospitals are literally crumbling (eg no functioning toilets on a whole level of 4-5 wards)
• There is an underlying social psychology phenomenon where the chinovnyiks want to please the master. The master doesn't even have to ask now.
• The current gov's agenda is to seize control even more (and and play into Putin's playbook) and curb freedom of (almost everything). There are many articles in the last decade from human rights ngos and such
• this agenda requires a narrative of fear. In the past 2 decades there was no one time where hungary didn't have an enemy trying to swallow them, overthrow them, etc. In the past 10 years all communication has been based on military metaphors and militant language*.
• to feed into this narrative the big bad was: Migrants. EU. Migrants again. EU again. COVID.
• These 4 points above lead to chinovnyiks reporting everyone who died and had any remote symptom (without test) as a covid death. Because this solidifies the enemy, makes it a very convenient excuse to keep up the emergency power bills and make it easy to silence whoever they don't want to hear.

*There have been many investigations on how EU money earmarked for healthcare upgrades have been embezzled.

This is not anecdata (apart from the social psychology, but even that has studies), but I don't want to flood the topic with shitloads of links. Let me know if any specific thing is of further interest and I'll put in links for that.

On Romania (have friends and had loads of colleagues as we had 2 big dev centers there). In the background it is becoming more and more apparent that the old sekuritate people (similar to kgb) are running the show. They are no better in terms of healthcare funding or narratives. But I don't actually have proof as I don't speak romanian.

Another thought on why eastern european countries are being hit much harder now - again through hungary and slovakia.
In the first wave they were following Austria's lead by declaration. There are historical reasons for this. The success at that point made them believe that
And media coverage was about how bad this could get here, but we- the brave leaders- have stepped in and saved all you children.....
Which bought with itself a complacency. People -en masse- in that region still like to be told what to think and do. MAny don't, but most of them are already scattered in the EU.

Btw, just a thought before heading off to sleep....
Anyone who played plague inc. had a strong hunch early on that this was airborne. Just saying.... hypothetically killing off the world's population actually teaches a lot about what is likely and what is not. Especially if you fail a lot with food/rodent transmission.

As much as I like the experimental page it doesn't reload data for a simple ctrl+r. It always has to be the hard ctrl+shift r. cache management is not great.

also, just if anyone is interested. The school covid map guys have actually shared their python code. (schoolcovidmap.org.uk/methodology)
This is transparency.

Did anyone look at the downloadable data?

1. why is it an editable .doc, why not a pdf. Cleaner, nicer, more control
2. The language is as if it was for 3 year olds. This might not be a bad thing, but i find it patronizing personally.
3. some data pieces are for oct 13, some are oct 9. We know about lag, but the general public may not be so aware. And it's confusing a bit. Well, you have to pay attention.

and my personal favourite: "Sadly, many people have died"
They could really drop this from everywhere.

And it looks like a yr 2 put it together.

coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/downloads/easy_read/overview/United%20Kingdom.docx

Northern Ireland to have 2 week circuit breaker from Monday including closing schools

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54533643

It is interesting reporting. It's not really 'closing schools for two weeks'. It includes half term so it's one week in effect. The article is very vague on this. I assume they go to online learning for a week.

Sun - I think that easy-read report is meant to be easy read for those with limited literacy (of which sadly there are many many people in this country)

TheSun it is written rather oddly for a public health doc, phrases such as this. Have had to go
And yes the sadly died one

Between 23 March and 9 October 2020, there have been 148,839 people who have had to go into hospital with Coronavirus.

It’s good to be accessible. Everything should be Plain English and that’s fine. I’d expect sharper clarity but tone of messaging always interests me.

Two articles: first one v concerning.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/oct/14/child-poverty-increases-in-england-across-the-north-and-midlands?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

This one seems to make sense to me from those who I know who spread the anti Covid stuff.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/14/poor-numerical-literacy-linked-to-greater-susceptibility-to-covid-19-fake-news?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Discussion on R4 re Liverpool using designated Covid positive care homes for earlier release from hospital. Discussion only atm.

@MarshaBradyo that sounds a bit like what nhs trusts are doing by having covid safe hospital that don't treat covid patients.

news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-large-crowd-dispersed-from-liverpool-city-centre-two-hours-before-tough-tier-3-restrictions-begin-12103642

I actually despair at people.....

I was wondering at the lack of basic maths contributing to not understanding the issues.

It makes sense from the POV that you're not used to some of the problem manipulation that's involved in maths.

I'm actually crap at maths but have a very visual creative problem solving mind and am better at those sorts of maths aspects. I think it teaches you be be aware of the things that aren't yet added to the grand sum so to speak?

I feel some of the discussions I've had with Covid deniers haven't thought of other factors that influence certain outcomes.

I find I drift back and forth on some issues as more info is added in.

The article on child poverty is why schools won't be closing for example.