If you had to predict when a return to normal life will happen ....

[MagicSummer]

When do you realistically predict that life will return to almost pre-virus normality? I say next Spring if a vaccine is produced; if not then I think we might see a natural fading of infection during the Summer.

Well Qantas expect December 2022 because that's when they've extended my flight voucher until

Depends what you mean by normal. The economic effects of this will have an impact 5 years plus. It will affect the office/retail markets with knock on effects on construction etc etc

In summary it’s a catalyst to what was slowly happening anyway eg more home working/on line shopping.

The first vaccines are unlikely to limit transmission merely hopefully reduce severe disease. The later vaccines will hopefully be better.

I think once out the other side Society will be better for this but there’s a tough 5 years ahead for the economy and living standards not helped by inevitable tax rises to pay for all this.

Spring 2022. Think this will still be around to some extent next winter and there’s no way the entire country will have been vaccinated by then.

There is no return to normal. There is only the normalisation of the way we will have to live to deal with the impact of this - medically, socially, employment, economy etc.

@OneFiveFour

There is no return to normal. There is only the normalisation of the way we will have to live to deal with the impact of this - medically, socially, employment, economy etc.

Aren’t you a ray of sunshine.

Next summer I think.

Well, the tin foil hat wearer in me says never and not because of a virus.

Summer next year

Vaccine administered in Spring

Since a good proproportion of the country have been vaccinated against flu this year, without a particular special programme, the possibility of an expansion of the vaccination system to be able to vaccinate the population against Covid-19 should be possible. It will require the government to accept a decentralised process, rather than the very centralised controlled processes it has implemented to date.
I worry that other counties will have full access to vaccinations and the UK will only have access for the most vulnerable.
I won't go back to any sort of normal until I have been vaccinated.

They have pushed back premieres to March 21 though I think that's optimistic.

I think things will start improving from next Easter onwards.

*Aren’t you a ray of sunshine.

Next summer I think.*

I was asked to predict, so I did. I don't think anything ever goes "back" to normal. Normal changes as time turns. That's just life.

Next spring/summer. Once the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated we can go back to normal.

@WankPuffins

Well, the tin foil hat wearer in me says never and not because of a virus.

I tend to agree - I watched the new David Attenborough programme on Netflix last night (and would advise everyone to watch it) and hoped that the only positive of Covid (less pollution) might continue, but the government just wants us to return to the same consumerist polluting activities as before and not to take advantage of this big pause in consuming/polluting to start again with a new better normal. Lost opportunity to restart 'normal' life differently. Hopefully people will remember how much they enjoyed a slower-pace of life and spending time with family outside doing non-organised non-purchased activities though.

Maybe I should have been a bit more explicit! The normal I really mean is when people can mingle freely without SD and a mask, when weddings can be for large numbers, when people can sing again, when the theatres are open again.

@Racoonworld

Next spring/summer. Once the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated we can go back to normal.

I don't think the vaccination will work 100% in the elderly, so if the non-vulnerable don't get the vaccine the elderly and vulnerable will still be at risk of catching Covid-19. Proper herd immunity requires 86% vaccination, I think. Healthy people need to be vaccinated to protect the vulnerable - that is the established understanding of herd immunity.

January 2022

@Disconnect

Since a good proproportion of the country have been vaccinated against flu this year, without a particular special programme, the possibility of an expansion of the vaccination system to be able to vaccinate the population against Covid-19 should be possible. It will require the government to accept a decentralised process, rather than the very centralised controlled processes it has implemented to date. I worry that other counties will have full access to vaccinations and the UK will only have access for the most vulnerable. I won't go back to any sort of normal until I have been vaccinated.

Are you vulnerable? If not and you are below 50 you do realise that you may never get the vaccine? The flu vaccine is only given out to certain groups and everyone else has to pay for it if they want it. This vaccine may not be available privately and it may not be needed for non vulnerable people.

Never. This isn’t about a virus. This is our new way of life, will probably get progressively worse as we get socialized to accept all this bullshit.

@Racoonworld - that's OK. if i can pay my own way and buy a private vaccination I guess I would. Otherwise, I won't be endangering the health of my elderly relatives who will likely have a vaccine that isn't 100%. The elderly and vulnerable will be better protected if everyone gets the vaccine, and I expect other countries will be following that policy. The UK will once again look stupid.

I've have said Summer next year a few weeks ago. But it already becoming apparent that there are going to be problems with the roll out of a vaccination.

The FT (and BBC) have reported today that there is an issue with expectation management over the virus and are reporting that only half the population will be eligible for the vaccine.

Thats the clinically vulerable and over 50s. Other adults and children won't be getting it.

That raises something of a question over travel.

Its highly likely that many countries (including the UK) are likely to require a certificate of vaccination as a prerequist to entry.

So where does that leave 0 - 49 year olds in terms of wanting to go on holiday? My suspicion is that answer is when vaccine is available to the private sector, then the only way you will be able to travel to many places if you are age 0 - 49 is if you pay privately to be immunised....

... so everyone might want to consider this when assessing when they think life will 'return to normal'.

I think holidays in Bognor and Bangor could be around for a while longer.

@Userzzz yep. But when I’ve said that out loud I get called a conspiracy theorist.

Disconnect
I agree and it makes me feel sad. There was such an opportunity to do things differently - and it’s not been taken

Years at least, possibly decades but who knows what's around the corner .

I think the way forward will be for there to be a cheap quick test, similar to the way a pregnancy test is cheap and quick now (and available in pound shops). At one time a pregncny test was very expensive but they did become cheap and readily available

This would mean that to enter work, school, a pub, restaurant etc you would maybe take a quick test, mouth swab or something, that shows instant results. That way I think it could be controlled to an extent and that would mean some kind of normality but not completely

PHE figures suggest that last year 14.3million flu shots were provided. That's about 20% of the uk... ish!
A vaccine needs about 60% coverage to be effective... ish!
Once approved for use mass scaling of production is likely to be 12 months (assumption assuming legislative and process changes only). So if we diverted all flu vaccine facilities and delivery chains to cv19 (no flu vaccine production) it would take about 4.5 years to get an effective vaccine in place. If the protection lasts less than 5 years it's going to be longer. If it mutated longer again.
Arm chair maths only!

@OneFiveFour

There is no return to normal. There is only the normalisation of the way we will have to live to deal with the impact of this - medically, socially, employment, economy etc.